Form
20-F
|
X
|
Form
40-F
|
Yes
|
No
|
X
|
Yes
|
No
|
X
|
Yes
|
No
|
X
|
ITEM
|
|
1. Valuation
Report - April 4, 2007
|
|
|
|
Strictly
private and confidential
|
|
A
Passion to Perform.
|
|
|
|
n
|
These
materials may only be used by Ultrapar Participações S.A. (“Ultrapar”) for
the purposes defined in the engagement letter signed with Deutsche
Bank
Securities Inc. (“Deutsche Bank”). Neither Deutsche Bank nor any of its
affiliates or any of its or their officers, directors, employees,
affiliates, advisors, agents or representatives (collectively, “Deutsche
Bank Representatives”) makes any express or implied representation or
warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the materials
set
forth herein or provides advice relating to tax, accounting, legal,
antitrust, or other regulatory matters. Nothing contained in the
accompanying materials is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise
or
representation as to the past or the
future
|
n
|
In
connection with Deutsche Bank’s role of “conducting a valuation analysis /
preparing a valuation report” for Ultrapar, and in preparing its report as
to the respective valuations of Companhia Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga
(“CBPI”), Distribuidora de Produtos de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. (“DPPI”) and
Refinaria de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. (“RIPI”) (collectively, “Ipiranga”, or
the “Ipiranga Group”) and Ultrapar, Deutsche Bank has reviewed certain
publicly available financial and other information concerning Ultrapar
and
the Ipiranga Group and certain internal analyses and other information
furnished to it by Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group. Deutsche Bank
has also
held discussions with members of the senior managements of Ultrapar
and
the Ipiranga Group, and with respect to certain assets, the senior
management of Braskem, regarding the businesses and prospects of
their
respective companies and the operations of the combined company following
the transactions described herein. In addition, Deutsche Bank has
(i)
reviewed the reported prices and trading activity for Ultrapar’s and the
Ipiranga Group’s stock, (ii) compared certain financial and stock market
information for Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group with similar information
for certain other companies whose securities are publicly traded,
(iii)
reviewed the financial terms of certain recent business combinations
which
it deemed comparable in whole or in part, (iv) reviewed the terms
of the
agreements governing the transaction, and (v) performed such other
studies
and analyses and considered such other factors as it deemed
appropriate
|
|
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank has not assumed responsibility for independent verification
of, and
has not independently verified, any information, whether publicly
available or furnished to it, concerning Ultrapar or the Ipiranga
Group,
including, without limitation, any financial information, forecasts
or
projections considered in connection with the preparation of its
report as
to the respective valuations of Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group.
Accordingly, for purposes of its report, Deutsche Bank has assumed
and
relied upon the accuracy and completeness of all such information
and
Deutsche Bank has not conducted a physical inspection of any of the
properties or assets, and has not prepared or obtained any independent
evaluation or appraisal of any of the assets or liabilities, of Ultrapar
or the Ipiranga Group
|
n
|
It
should be understood that any valuations, financial and other forecasts
and/or estimates or projections and other assumptions contained in
the
accompanying materials (including, without limitation, regarding
financial
and operating performance), were prepared or derived from information
(whether oral or in writing) supplied solely by the respective managements
of Ultrapar, the Ipiranga Group and Braskem or derived from other
public
sources, without any independent verification by Deutsche Bank, and
involve numerous and significant subjective determinations and assumptions
by Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group, which may not be correct. As
a result,
it is expected that there will be a difference between actual and
estimated or projected results, and actual results may vary materially
from those shown herein. In addition, with respect any such information
made available to Deutsche Bank and used in its analyses, Deutsche
Bank
has assumed that they have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting
the best currently available estimates and judgments of the respective
managements of Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group as to the matters
covered
thereby. The report observes the requirements by Brazillian Securities
Regulation, in particular Rule #361/02 of the Brazillian Securities
Commission ("CVM").
|
|
|
n
|
Accordingly,
in preparing its report as to the respective valuations of Ultrapar
and
the Ipiranga Group, neither Deutsche Bank nor any of the Deutsche
Bank
Representatives make any express or implied representation or warranty,
or
express any view, as to the accuracy, reasonableness, completeness
or
achievability of any such financial and other forecasts and/or estimates
or projections, or as to the determinations or assumptions on which
they
are based. Deutsche Bank’s report is necessarily based upon economic,
market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information
made
available to it as of, the date
hereof
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank has also assumed that all material governmental, regulatory
or other
approvals and consents required in connection with the consummation
of the
transaction will be obtained and that in connection with obtaining
any
necessary governmental, regulatory or other approvals and consents,
or any
amendments, modifications or waivers to any agreements, instruments
or
orders to which either Ultrapar or the Ipiranga Group is a party
or is
subject or by which it is bound, no limitations, restrictions or
conditions will be imposed or amendments, modifications or waivers
made
that would have a material adverse effect on Ultrapar or the Ipiranga
Group or materially reduce the contemplated benefits of the transaction
to
Ultrapar
|
n
|
This
presentation was based on the information available until today,
and the
views expressed are subject to change based upon a number of factors,
including market conditions and Ultrapar’s and the Ipiranga Group’s
business and prospects. Deutsche Bank does not undertake any obligation
to
update or otherwise revise these materials after the date
hereof
|
n
|
This
Report and its conclusions are not recommendations by Deutsche Bank
as to
whether Ipiranga shareholders should tender their shares in the mandatory
tender offer, or to Ultrapar or Ipiranga shareholders as to the fairness
to such shareholders, from a financial point of view, of the exchange
ratio in the incorporation of RIPI, CBPI, DPPI shares in Ultrapar.
Each
shareholder must reach its own conclusions about the advisability
of
accepting the offer presented by Ultrapar and the incorporation of
the
shares of CBPI, DBPI and RIPI by
Ultrapar
|
|
|
Section
|
|||
1
|
Executive
summary
|
1
|
|
2
|
Valuation
summary
|
9
|
|
A
|
Ultrapar
|
10
|
|
B
|
RIPI
|
13
|
|
C
|
DPPI
|
16
|
|
D
|
CBPI
|
19
|
|
3
|
Economic
value of underlying assets
|
22
|
|
A
|
Ultrapar
|
26
|
|
B
|
Ultrapar
prior to the share merger
|
37
|
|
C
|
CBPI
distribution
|
39
|
|
D
|
DPPI
distribution
|
45
|
|
E
|
Copesul
|
50
|
|
F
|
IPQ
|
55
|
|
G
|
Valuation
of other assets based on multiples
|
60
|
|
4
|
Final
considerations
|
62
|
|
5
|
Glossary
|
64
|
|
Appendix
|
|||
I
|
Share
price evolution
|
67
|
|
II
|
Comparable
multiples
|
73
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
1
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Initial
considerations
|
n
|
This
appraisal report (“Report” or “Valuation Report”) was prepared by Deutsche
Bank as requested by Ultrapar
|
n
|
The
Report observes the requirements imposed by Brazilian Securities
Regulation, in particular Rule #361/02 of the Brazilian Securities
Commission (“CVM”). Ultrapar requested this Report to be used in
connection with (i) the mandatory tender offers related to the acquisition
by Ultrapar of the control of Ipiranga Group, and (ii) the incorporation
of CBPI, DBPI and RIPI shares in
Ultrapar
|
n
|
The
ranges for the respective valuations of Ultrapar, CBPI, DBPI and
RIPI are
limited to 10% due to a requirement imposed by Rule #361/02 of the
CVM
|
2
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
n
|
Economic
value based on discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis for the main
operating companies and comparable multiples for some smaller operating
subsidiaries
|
–
|
Based
on publicly available information and discussions with management
of
Ultrapar and Ipiranga
|
n
|
Market
value based on average share prices weighted by traded
volume
|
–
|
Average
share price weighted by traded volume during the last twelve months
ended
March 16, 2007 (last trading day
pre-announcement)
|
n
|
Book
value of the shares
|
–
|
Based
on Ultrapar and Ipiranga’s audited financial statements as of December
31,2006
|
Economic
value - methodologies for different business
lines
|
||||||||
Discounted
cash flow
|
Codename
|
WACC
|
Public
company comparables
|
Codename
|
||||
Companhia
Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga
|
CBPI
|
12.2%
|
Ipiranga
Química S.A.
|
IQ
|
||||
Distribuidora
de Prod. de Petróleo Ipiranga
|
DPPI
|
12.3%
|
Empresa
Carioca de Prod. Químicos S.A.
|
EMCA
|
||||
Copesul
Central Química
|
Copesul
|
11.2%
|
Ipiranga
Asfaltos
|
IASA
|
||||
Ipiranga
Petroquímica S.A.
|
IPQ
|
11.8%
|
AM/PM
Comestíveis
|
AM/PM
|
||||
Ultrapar
Participações
|
Ultrapar
|
10.6%
|
Isa-Sul
Administração e Part. Ltda
|
Isa-sul
|
||||
Refinaria Petróleo Ipiranga | Refinery |
3
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Valuation
range -
price
per
share
|
(a) Based on discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) and comparable multiples (b) Market value based on weighted average shares for the 12 months prior to date of announcement (c) Book value based on latest public company filing dated 12/31/2006 |
4
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Discounted
Cash Flow
-
DCF Analysis
|
Comparable
Public
Company
Analysis
|
Comparable
Precedent
Transaction
Analysis
|
||||
Methodology
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Potential
advantages
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Potential
disadvantages
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Considerations
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Notes: (1) TEV - Total Enterprise Value = Equity plus Net debt. |
5
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Deutsche
Bank credentials
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank and its affiliates provide a full range of investment banking
products and services worldwide. The Corporate and Investment Bank
(“CIB”)
is responsible for providing capital markets products and investment
banking services to corporations, financial institutions and governments
and their agencies
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank and its affiliates’ expertise in assessing Brazilian publicly listed
companies includes: the advisory to Ashmore Energy International
on the
acquisition of Prisma Energy International in 2006, the fairness
opinion
valuation of Companhia Siderúrgica Belgo Mineira in 2005, and the
valuation report of Cia. Metalic Nordeste for Companhia Siderurgica
Nacional (“CSN”) in 2002
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank or its affiliates also advised La Seda de Barcelona S.A. (“LSB”) on
the acquisition of Eastman Chemical Iberica S.A. from Eastman Chemical
Company in 2007, advised Linde AG on the sale of equipment business
of BOC
Edwards to CCMP Capital in 2007, advised Gazprom on the sale of a
10.7%
stake to Rosneftegaz, advised ConocoPhillips on the divestment of
selected
European downstream assets (pending), advised Giant Industries on
its sale
to Western Refining Inc. and provided a fairness opinion valuation
(pending), and is advising Valero on strategic alternatives for the
Lima,
Ohio refinery, among other
assignments
|
n
|
Other
selected transactions that involved valuation of public companies
include:
the advisory to Fairchild Semiconductor International in its acquisition
of System General Corp, and the advisory to Healthcare REIT in its
acquisition of Windrose Medical Properties Trust. Deutsche Bank also
acted
as advisor to International DisplayWorks Inc. when it was acquired
by
Flextronics International Ltd. and to US LEC Corp when it merged
with
Paetec Communications, Inc. All these transactions required a fairness
opinion valuation
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank and its affiliates have a qualified team of professionals based
in
New York and São Paulo led by Mr. Ian Reid who was responsible for
producing this Report
|
n
|
In
delivering the Report, Deutsche Bank followed its internal policies
applicable to the delivery of valuation reports, including forming
an
internal valuation committee to review and approve the
report
|
6
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Additional
considerations
|
n
|
The
date of this Report is April 4,
2007
|
n
|
This
Report may be solely used in the context of the request made by Ultrapar
to Deutsche Bank
|
n
|
Research
reports prepared by different areas of Deutsche Bank may utilize
different
assumptions with respect to the future performance of Ultrapar and
Ipiranga than those used in the Valuation Report, and thus potentially
present significantly different conclusions with respect to
valuation
|
n
|
In
compliance with the resolution CVM #361/02, Deutsche Bank states
that as
of April 4, 2007:
|
–
|
There
is no conflict of interest that compromises the independence necessary
to
prepare this Report
|
–
|
Deutsche
Bank and its affiliates held 8,527 non-voting shares of Braskem and
171,000 ADRs of Braskem; 62,175 voting shares of Petrobras, and 500,540
ADRs of Petrobras; Deutsche Bank and its affiliates did not hold,
directly
or indirectly, any shares of CBPI, DBPI and RIPI, nor did they hold
shares
or ADRs of Ultrapar, Petrobras or Braskem other than the shares/ADRs
mentioned above
|
–
|
Deutsche
Bank is engaged in sales and trading transactions with Petrobras
and
Braskem, which includes, but is not limited to,
derivatives
|
–
|
In
May 2006, Deutsche Bank received R$2,673,760.50 net of taxes from
Petrobras for the advisory and structuring services rendered in connection
with the acquisition of ABB's stake in Termobahia. Deutsche Bank
did not
receive any other fees from Ultrapar, Braskem or Petrobras in connection
with financial advisory, consulting or auditing services, or any
other
investment banking services over the past 12
months
|
–
|
Deutsche
Bank will receive US$3,000,000 net of taxes as a fee for the delivery
of
this Report
|
7
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Additional
considerations (continued)
|
n
|
The
preparation of this Valuation Report was overseen by Ian Reid, Managing
Director - Corporate Finance and Mergers & Acquisitions for Latin
America. Selected advisory assignments in which Mr. Reid was involved
include, among others:
|
–
|
The
merger of Brahma and Antarctica to form Ambev, the unwinding of CSN’s
controlling interest in CVRD (advisor to CVRD), the acquisition of
a
Bolivian refinery by Petrobras (advisor to Petrobras), the sale of
Latasa
to Rexam by Bradesco, Alcoa and JP Morgan (advisor to sellers), the
acquisition of Panamco by Coca- Cola FEMSA (advisor to Coca-Cola
FEMSA),
and the repurchase by FEMSA of Interbrew’s stake in Femsa Cerveza (advisor
to FEMSA) among others
|
Ian
Reid - Managing Director
|
8
|
Valuation
summary
|
Section
2
|
9
|
Valuation
summary
|
Section
2
|
10
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
■
|
|
Ultragaz
Participações
LTDA
|
|
-
|
Ultragaz
is the leading
distributor of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Brazil, and one
of the
largest distributors in the world by
volume
|
|
-
|
Distributes
bottled and bulk LPG
to residential, commercial, and industrial clients in
Brazil
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$1.4 billion,
and volume sold of 1.5 million
tons
|
■
|
|
Oxiteno
S.A.
|
|
-
|
A
second-generation producer of
commodity & specialty
petrochemicals
|
|
-
|
Oxiteno
is the largest producer of
ethylene oxide and its main derivatives in Latin
America
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$707 million,
and volume sold of 544,000
tons
|
■
|
|
Ultracargo
Oper.
Logísticas e Participações
LTDA
|
|
-
|
Provides
integrated logistics
services for special
products
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of $103
million
|
|
-
|
Storage
capacity at 2006 year end
of 240 thousand cubic
meters.
|
|
-
|
Total
kilometrage traveled in 2006
was 43 million kilometers
|
11
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
Economic
value (R$)
|
||||||||||||
Ultrapar
TEV (before steps 1 and 2)
|
5,879
|
|||||||||||
(+)
net cash
|
19 | |||||||||||
Ultrapar
Equity value (before steps 1 and 2)
|
5,898 | |||||||||||
(+)
assets acquired (a)
|
497 | |||||||||||
(-)
price paid(b)
|
(876 | ) |
|
|||||||||
Ultrapar
equity value (after steps 1 and 2)
|
5,520 | |||||||||||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
81.3 | |||||||||||
Price
per share – R$ per share
|
64.48 | 67.87 | 71.26 | |||||||||
|
||||||||||||
-5%
|
+5%
|
Weighted
average share price
LTM
to
announcement(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
|
PN
|
||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
NA
|
17,108
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
NA
|
43.08
|
Book
value – Ultrapar
|
||||
12/31/2006
|
||||
Shareholder
equity – (R$ million)
|
1,940.7
|
|||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
81.3
|
|||
Book
value per share (R$ per share)
|
23.86
|
Weighted
average share price
announcement
to April 2, 2007(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
|
PN
|
||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
NA
|
2,822
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
NA
|
56.10
|
12
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
13
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
■
|
RIPI
is a holding company for
certain Ipiranga investments and operates a
refinery
|
■
|
Companhia
Brasileira de
Petroleo Ipiranga
(CBPI)
|
|
-
|
A
fuel distributor with a network
of 3,324 stations in Brazil,
except in Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and
Amapá
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$9.8 billion and
volume sold of 12.2 billion cubic
meters
|
■
|
Distrib.
de Produtos de
Petroleo Ipiranga
(DPPI)
|
|
-
|
A
gasoline distributor with a
network of 916 stations in Southern
Brazil
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of $1.6 billion and
volume sold of 1.8 billion cubic
meters
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Química
(IQ)
|
|
-
|
A
wholesale distributor of
chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different
markets
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$212.3 million
and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
|
|
-
|
Through
its ownership in IQ, RIPI
indirectly controls Copesul (with Braskem) and
IPQ
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Petroquímica
(IPQ)
|
|
-
|
A
2nd generation
producer of high-end
petrochemicals
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$924.3 million
and volume sold of 636,100
tons
|
■
|
Copesul
|
|
-
|
A
naphtha-based cracker owned by
Ipiranga & Braskem
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$2.9 billion and
volume of 2.962 million tons
|
Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, bastos, and Ormazabal families Source: Public Ipiranga information |
14
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
Economic
value
|
||||||||||||||||
100%
|
Proportionate
|
|||||||||||||||
(R$
million)
|
TEV
|
TEV
|
||||||||||||||
IQ SA |
3,051
|
58.53 | % |
1,786
|
||||||||||||
CBPI
SA
|
4,029
|
11.42 | % |
460
|
||||||||||||
DPPI
SA
|
1,552
|
7.65 | % |
119
|
||||||||||||
RIPI
Opco
|
9
|
100.0 | % |
9
|
||||||||||||
RIPI
– Total Enterprise Value
|
2,373
|
|||||||||||||||
(-)
net debt
|
(765 | ) | ||||||||||||||
RIPI
– Equity value
|
1,609
|
|||||||||||||||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
29.6
|
|||||||||||||||
Price
per share – R$ per share
|
51.63
|
54.35
|
57.06
|
|||||||||||||
-5 | % | +5 | % | |||||||||||||
Note:
Figures
in R$ million unless otherwise noted.
Source:
Ipiranga information and Deutsche
Bank
|
Weighted
average share price
LTM
to
announcement(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
|
PN
|
||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
1,843
|
5,850
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
45.81
|
32.75
|
||||||
(a)
From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007
|
||||||||
Source:
FactSet
|
Book
value – RIPI SA
|
||||
12/31/2006
|
||||
Shareholder
equity – (R$ million)
|
577.3
|
|||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
29.6
|
|||
Book
value per share (R$ per share)
|
19.50
|
Weighted
average share price
announcement
to April 2, 2007(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
PN
|
|||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
528
|
1,495
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
91.57
|
44.85
|
||||||
(a)
From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007
|
||||||||
Source:
FactSet
|
15
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
16
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
■
|
DPPI
is a distributor of fuel in
Southern Brazil
|
■
|
The
Company delivers fuel to
retail gas stations, industrial
sites
|
■
|
Approximately
65% of volume is
sold to retail gas stations
|
■
|
In
2006, core volume (gasoline,
alcohol, and diesel fuel) was 1.8 billion cubic meters. Total volume
(including GNV, lubricants, & others) was marginally
higher
|
■
|
In
2006, the Company had 2.5% of
the Brazilian market by volume
sold
|
■
|
|
Isa-Sul
Administração e
Participações
(Isa-Sul)
|
|
-
|
Owns
152 of the gas stations in
DPPI’s region
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$8.7 million and
EBITDA of US$7.5
million
|
■
|
|
Companhia
Brasileira de
Petroleo Ipiranga
(CBPI)
|
|
-
|
A
fuel distributor with a network
of 3,324 stations in Brazil, except in Rio Grande do Sul,
Roraima and Amapá
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$9.8 billion and
volume sold of 12.2 billion cubic
meters
|
|
-
|
Through
its ownership in CBPI,
DPPI indirectly owns a minority stake in IQ, IPQ, and
Copesul
|
■ |
|
Ipiranga
Química
(IQ)
|
|
-
|
A
wholesale distributor of
chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different
markets
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$212.3 million
and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
|
■
|
|
Ipiranga
Petroquímica
(IPQ)
|
|
-
|
A
2nd generation
producer of high-end
petrochemicals
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$924.3 million
and volume sold of 636,100
tons
|
■
|
|
Copesul
|
|
-
|
A
naphtha-based cracker owned by
Ipiranga & Braskem
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$2.9 billion and
volume of 2.962 million tons
|
Corporate structure Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal families Source: Public Ipiranga information |
17
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
Economic
value
|
||||||||||||||||
100%
|
Proportionate
|
|||||||||||||||
(R$
million)
|
TEV
|
TEV
|
||||||||||||||
CBPI |
4,029
|
21.01 | % |
847
|
||||||||||||
DPPI
Opco
|
706
|
100 | % |
706
|
||||||||||||
DIPPI
– Total Enterprise Value
|
1,552
|
|||||||||||||||
(-)
net debt
|
(168 | ) | ||||||||||||||
DPPI
– Equity value
|
1,385
|
|||||||||||||||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
32.0
|
|||||||||||||||
Price
per share – R$ per share
|
41.11
|
43.28
|
45.44
|
|||||||||||||
-5 | % | +5 | % | |||||||||||||
Note:
Figures in R$ million, except unless otherwise
noted
|
||||||||||||||||
Source: Ipiranga information and Deutsche Bank |
Weighted
average share price
LTM
to
announcement(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
|
PN
|
||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
24
|
2,919
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
41.69
|
24.99
|
||||||
(a)
From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007
|
||||||||
Source:
FactSet
|
Book
value – DIPPI SA
|
||||
12/31/2006
|
||||
Shareholder
equity – (R$ million)
|
804.0
|
|||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
32.0
|
|||
Book
value per share (R$ per share)
|
25.13
|
Weighted
average share price
announcement
to April 2, 2007(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
PN
|
|||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
61
|
514
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
96.53
|
34.69
|
||||||
(a)
From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007
|
||||||||
Source:
FactSet
|
18
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
19
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
■
|
The
largest company in the
Ipiranga Group by revenue, CBPI is a distributor of fuel in Brazil, except in Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and
Amapá
|
■
|
The
Company delivers fuel to
retail gas stations, industrial
sites
|
■
|
Approximately
65% of volume is
sold to retail gas stations
|
■
|
In
2006, core volume (gasoline,
alcohol, and diesel fuel) was 11.6 billion cubic meters. Total volume
(including GNV, lubricants, & others) was 12.2 billion cubic
meters
|
■
|
In
2006, the Company had 16.9% of
the Brazilian market
|
■
|
Empresa
Carioca de
Produtos Químicos
(EMCA)
|
|
-
|
Produces
specialty oils with
applications in the pharmaceutical, food, cosmetic, and plastics
industries
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$42.5 million
and EBITDA of US$1.4 million
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Asfaltos
(IASA)
|
|
-
|
Produces
asphalt and asphalt
additives, and provides pavement
services
|
|
-
|
2006
sales of US$114.3 million and
EBITDA of US$6.1 million
|
■
|
AM/PM
Comestíveis
|
|
-
|
A
chain of retail convenience
stores attached to CBPI gas
stations
|
|
-
|
2006
sales of US$8.4 million and
EBITDA of US$14.7 million, which includes other operating
income
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Química SA
(IQ)
|
|
-
|
A
wholesale distributor of
chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different
markets
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$212.3 million
and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Petroquímica
(IPQ)
|
|
-
|
A
2nd generation
producer of high-end
petrochemicals
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$924.3 million
and volume sold of 636,100 tons
|
-
|
Through its ownership in IQ, CBPI, indirectly has a stake in IPQ and Copesul |
■
|
Copesul
|
|
-
|
A
naphtha-based cracker owned by
Ipiranga & Braskem
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$2.9 billion and
volume of 2.962 million tons
|
Corporate structure Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal families |
20
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
Economic value Book value - CBPI -------------- ----------------- (R$ million) 100% Proportionate 12/31/2006 TEV TEV ---------- Copesul 5,635 29.46% 1,660 (1) Shareholder equity - (R$ million) 1,555.2 IPQ Opco 1,452 100.00% 1,452 (2) Total number of shares (million) 106.0 100% IPQ SA. 3,112 (3)=(1)+(2) Book value per share (R$ per share) 14.68 IPQ SA. 3,112 92.39% 2,875 (4)=(3)x stake IQ Opco 176 100.00% 176 (5) 100% IQ SA 3,051 (6)=(4)+(5) IQ SA 3,051 41.47% 1,265 (7)=(6)x stake CBPI Opco 2,764 100.00% 2,764 (8) CBPI - Total Enterprise Value 4,029 (9)=(7)+(8) (-) net debt (1,021) CBPI - Equity Value 3,008 Total number of shares (million) 106.0 Price per share - R$ per share 26.97 28.39 29.81 ----------------- -5% +5% Note: Figures in R$ million, except unless otherwise noted Note: Book value based on operating company financials Source: Ipiranga information and Deutsche Bank as of 12/31/2006 Source: Company's filings Weighted average share price Weighted average share price LTM to announcement (a) announcement to April 2, 2007 (a) ----------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- ON PN ON PN ======= ========= ======= ========= Total volume (000's) 123 62.524 Total volume (000's) 168 7,946 W.A. share price (R$ per share) 21.72 18.32 W.A. share price (R$ per share) 52.55 23.28 (a) From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007 (a) From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007 Source: FactSet Source: FactSet |
21
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
22
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
DCF
|
||
n | Basic assumptions | |
– | 10-year projections | |
– | Base date of DCF valuation is December 31, 2006 | |
– | Assumes exchange rate of 2.1385 R$/US$ as of 12/31/2006 | |
– | Models projected in nominal reais; cash flows were converted to US Dollars based on average exchange rate for the year | |
– | WACC in nominal US Dollars | |
– | Considers that cash flow is generated evenly throughout the year | |
n | Perpetuity | |
– | Calculated based on Gordon’s growth formula | |
– | Adjustments to capex/ depreciation, tax rates, net operating working capital | |
– | Petrochemical companies: perpetuity cash flow adjusted for mid-cycle | |
n | Equity value | |
– | TEV minus net debt (as defined in the glossary) | |
DCF
valuation
|
||
Companhia
Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga
Distribuidora
de Prod. de Petróleo Ipiranga
Copesul
Central Química
Ipiranga
Petroquímica S.A.
Ultrapar
Participações
|
||
Multiples
|
||
n | Basic assumptions | |
– | Based on multiples of EBITDA | |
n | Precedent transactions | |
– | Applied to LTM EBITDA | |
n | Trading comparables | |
– | Applied to 2006 EBITDA except for petrochemicals, where an average of 3 - 5 years (normalized EBITDA) was used depending on the company | |
Multiple
-based valuation
|
||
Ipiranga
Química S.A. - precedent transactions
Empresa
Carioca de Prod. Químicos S.A. - trading comps
Ipiranga
Asfaltos - precedent transactions
AM/PM
Comestíveis - trading comps
Isa-Sul
Adm. e Part. Ltda - implied multiple from DPPI
DCF
|
||
Source: Ultrapar and Deutsche Bank |
23
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Ipiranga
companies
|
|||||||||
|
Ultrapar
|
CBPI
|
DPPI
|
Copesul
|
IPQ
|
||||
I. Beta calculation | |||||||||
1.
Beta un-levered (a)
|
0.64
|
0.90
|
0.90
|
0.86
|
0.86
|
||||
Long-term
optimal debt (D)/cap (D+E) ratio
|
35%
(b)
|
40%
(c)
|
40%
(c)
|
50%
(c)
|
50%
(c)
|
||||
Long-term
optimal equity (E) /cap (D+E) ratio
|
65%
(b)
|
60%
(c)
|
60%
(c)
|
50%
(c)
|
50%
(c)
|
||||
Marginal
tax
rate (tax)(d)
|
22%
|
26%
|
23%
|
33%
|
25%
|
||||
2.
Re-levered equity beta (β)
|
0.92
|
1.35
|
1.36
|
1.44
|
1.50
|
||||
II.
Calculation of Cost of Capital
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
US
risk free
rate (Rfr) (e)
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
||||
Local
risk
premium (CRP) (f)
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
||||
Local
long-term risk free rate
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
||||
US
equity risk
premium (ERP) (g)
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
||||
3.
Cost of Equity (Ke)
|
13.0%
p.a.
|
16.1%
p.a.
|
16.2%
p.a.
|
16.7%
p.a.
|
17.2
p.a.%
|
||||
Local
long-term risk free rate
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
||||
Long-term
corporate risk spread (h)
|
150
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
||||
4.
Cost of Debt (Kd)
|
8.0%
p.a.
|
8.50%
p.a.
|
8.50%
p.a.
|
8.50%
p.a.
|
8.50%
p.a.
|
||||
5.
WACC
|
10.6%
p.a.
|
12.2%
p.a.
|
12.3%
p.a.
|
11.2%
p.a.
|
11.8%
p.a.
|
Note:
|
(a)
2 years
weekly Betas against the S&P500 for the sample of companies that
represent each industry (source: Bloomberg)
|
(b)
Based on a
more conservative company risk profile than the optimal capital
structure
for the industry
|
|
(c)
Based on
comparable public companies
|
|
(d)
Marginal
tax rates as provided by the management of the
companies
|
|
(e)
US risk
free rate is the yield of the US Treasury (source:
FactSet)
|
|
(f)
Local risk
premium based on spread of the sovereign bond to the equivalent
US
Treasury (source: Bloomberg)
|
|
(g)
Equity
risk premium from Ibbotson’s 2006 report
|
|
(h)
Long term
corporate risk spreads are based on companies outstanding debt
(source: the companies’ financials)
|
|
Source:
Bloomberg, Factset and the
companies
|
24
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
US
Economy
|
2004A
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Inflation
(a)
|
1.6%
|
2.6%
|
2.3%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
US
Treasury (a)
|
4.1%
|
4.1%
|
4.7%
|
4.5%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
Brazil
Economy
|
2004A
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
GDP
- real growth (b)
|
0.5%
|
4.9%
|
3.4%
|
3.5%
|
3.7%
|
3.6%
|
3.4%
|
3.3%
|
3.1%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
GDP
- nominal growth
|
5.7%
|
10.9%
|
6.6%
|
7.4%
|
7.8%
|
7.2%
|
7.0%
|
6.9%
|
6.7%
|
6.6%
|
6.6%
|
6.6%
|
6.6%
|
Brazilian
population growth (c)
|
1.5%
|
1.4%
|
1.4%
|
1.4%
|
1.3%
|
1.3%
|
1.3%
|
1.2%
|
1.2%
|
1.2%
|
1.1%
|
1.1%
|
1.1%
|
Inflation
(IPC) (a)
|
5.2%
|
5.7%
|
3.1%
|
3.8%
|
4.0%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
Selic
(average) (b)
|
23.0%
|
16.4%
|
15.3%
|
12.2%
|
11.1%
|
10.0%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
CDI
(Brazilian interbank rate) (b)
|
23.5%
|
16.9%
|
15.8%
|
12.7%
|
11.6%
|
10.5%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
FX
rate - eop (d)
|
2.85
|
2.34
|
2.14
|
2.18
|
2.29
|
2.32
|
2.36
|
2.39
|
2.43
|
2.46
|
2.50
|
2.54
|
2.57
|
FX
rate - avg
|
3.05
|
2.43
|
2.19
|
2.16
|
2.24
|
2.31
|
2.34
|
2.38
|
2.41
|
2.45
|
2.48
|
2.52
|
2.56
|
Average
R$ devaluation
|
(20.3%)
|
(9.9%)
|
(1.5%)
|
3.7%
|
3.0%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
25
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
26
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Perp.
|
||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
157
|
163
|
218
|
239
|
249
|
251
|
257
|
286
|
297
|
347
|
364
|
|||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
4.1%
|
|
33.2%
|
9.7%
|
|
4.4%
|
0.6%
|
2.4%
|
11.3%
|
3.9%
|
16.8%
|
5.0%
|
|||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(37)
|
(38)
|
(47)
|
|
(51)
|
(53)
|
(54)
|
(56)
|
(64)
|
(67)
|
(77)
|
(80)
|
||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(23.4%)
|
(23.5%)
|
|
(21.6%)
|
(21.3%)
|
(21.1%)
|
(21.5%)
|
(21.7%)
|
(22.4%)
|
(22.6%)
|
(22.1%)
|
(22.1%)
|
||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
120
|
125
|
171
|
188
|
|
197
|
197
|
201
|
222
|
|
230
|
270
|
284
|
|||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
93
|
103
|
|
111
|
119
|
127
|
131
|
134
|
116
|
119
|
87
|
87
|
||||||||||
(-)
Capex
|
(253)
|
(154)
|
(103)
|
(96)
|
(99)
|
(101)
|
(104)
|
(106)
|
(100)
|
(98)
|
(87)
|
|||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
(7)
|
(19)
|
(50)
|
(21)
|
(19)
|
(17)
|
(16)
|
(13)
|
(11)
|
(11)
|
(11)
|
|||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
(47)
|
56
|
129
|
190
|
206
|
|
209
|
215
|
218
|
238
|
248
|
272
|
||||||||||
annual
growth
|
–
|
–
|
130.4%
|
47.8%
|
8.3%
|
1.5%
|
3.0%
|
1.5%
|
9.0%
|
4.0%
|
9.8%
|
TEV (R$ million) (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ TEV/ 2007 EBITDA (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ |
27
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Note: Excludes depreciation Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance |
28
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
29
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net
operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) |
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
150.2
|
126.4
|
133.5
|
141.9
|
150.0
|
158.5
|
167.4
|
176.6
|
186.2
|
196.3
|
207.0
|
218.2
|
||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
216
|
203
|
215
|
228
|
241
|
255
|
269
|
284
|
299
|
316
|
333
|
351
|
||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
(65)
|
(77)
|
(81)
|
(87)
|
(91)
|
(97)
|
(102)
|
(107)
|
(113)
|
(119)
|
(126)
|
(132)
|
||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(7)
|
(8)
|
(8)
|
(8)
|
(9)
|
(9)
|
(10)
|
(10)
|
(11)
|
(11)
|
30
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
31
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
32
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net
operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital (R$
million)
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
259.5
|
361.2
|
368.0
|
400.0
|
504.5
|
543.7
|
580.0
|
611.8
|
641.0
|
661.7
|
677.3
|
694.2
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
352
|
468
|
478
|
520
|
651
|
700
|
747
|
791
|
830
|
858
|
878
|
898
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
(92
|
)
|
(107
|
)
|
(110
|
)
|
(120
|
)
|
(147
|
)
|
(157
|
)
|
(167
|
)
|
(179
|
)
|
(189
|
)
|
(196
|
)
|
(200
|
)
|
(204
|
)
|
|||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(7
|
)
|
(32
|
)
|
(105
|
)
|
(39
|
)
|
(36
|
)
|
(32
|
)
|
(29
|
)
|
(21
|
)
|
(16
|
)
|
(17
|
)
|
33
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
34
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
35
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working
capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating
working capital
|
14.0
|
16.1
|
17.7
|
19.4
|
21.1
|
22.9
|
23.9
|
24.9
|
26.0
|
27.1
|
28.2
|
29.5
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current
assets
|
33
|
35
|
38
|
42
|
46
|
50
|
52
|
54
|
57
|
59
|
62
|
64
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current
liabilities
|
(19
|
)
|
(19
|
)
|
(20
|
)
|
(23
|
)
|
(25
|
)
|
(27
|
)
|
(28
|
)
|
(29
|
)
|
(31
|
)
|
(32
|
)
|
(33
|
)
|
(35
|
)
|
|||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/
Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(2
|
)
|
(2
|
)
|
(2
|
)
|
(2
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
36
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
37
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
o After completing steps 1 and 2, Ultrapar will have acquired 41.3% of RIPI, 35.4% of DPPI, and 4.1% of CBPI o Ultrapar will spend R$876 million on steps 1 and 2 o These stakes are equivalent to 41.3% of the refinery, 38.5% of the distribution business of DPPI, and 16.9% of the distribution business of CBPI Stake Stake Ipiranga SA at S.A. at Opco ----------- ------- ------- RIPI SA 41.3% 41.3% Refinery DPPI SA 35.4% 38.5% DPPI distribution CBPI CBPI SA 4.1% 16.9% distribution (R$ million) TEV (5) Equity Assets acquired by Ultrapar 591 497 ------------------------------------------------------ Refinery (1) 41,3% 1 (10) DPPI 38,5% 272 290 distribution (2) CBPI 16,9% 315 217 distribution (3) CBPI EMCA (4) 16,9% 3 0 (1) Includes 1/3 of the Refinery only (2) Includes ISA-Sul (3) Includes CBPI distribution and the AM/PM convenience stores in the South and Southeast (3) Assumes that Petrobras will pay with cash for 100% of its stake and will assume no debt from CBPI (4) EMCA will be 100% owned by Ultrapar (5) Represents Ultrapar's stake in the acquired assets |
38
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
39
|
Economic value of underlying assets |
Section
3
|
2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
Perp.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
90
|
106
|
122
|
142
|
164
|
251
|
268
|
298
|
340
|
361
|
379
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
18.3 | % | 14.7 | % | 16.5 | % | 15.7 | % | 52.6 | % | 6.9 | % | 11.0 | % | 14.1 | % | 6.3 | % | 5.1 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(23 | ) | (27 | ) | (31 | ) | (36 | ) | (42 | ) | (64 | ) | (69 | ) | (76 | ) | (87 | ) | (93 | ) | (97 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
67
|
79
|
91
|
106
|
122
|
187
|
200
|
222
|
253
|
269
|
282
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
41
|
47
|
52
|
60
|
69
|
78
|
86
|
84
|
73
|
84
|
83
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Capex, net of reimbursement
|
(74 | ) | (63 | ) | (91 | ) | (116 | ) | (134 | ) | (98 | ) | (105 | ) | (127 | ) | (144 | ) | (137 | ) | (130 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
(8 | ) | (46 | ) | (55 | ) | (58 | ) | (61 | ) | (37 | ) | (50 | ) | (51 | ) | (52 | ) | (59 | ) | (61 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
27
|
17
|
(3 | ) | (8 | ) | (4 | ) |
130
|
131
|
128
|
130
|
156
|
174
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
(37.9 | %) | (120.4 | %) | 125.6 | % | (43.1 | %) |
n.a.
|
0.4 | % | (1.8 | %) | 1.1 | % | 20.1 | % | 11.5 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Note: Annual free cash flow in US$ millions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
TEV (R$ million) (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ TEV/ 2007 EBITDA (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ |
40
|
Economic value of underlying assets |
Section
3
|
41
|
Economic value of underlying assets |
Section
3
|
42
|
Economic value of underlying assets |
Section
3
|
43
|
Economic value of underlying assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital (R$
million)
|
2005A
|
2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
671
|
872
|
889
|
992
|
1,119
|
1,253
|
1,399
|
1,487
|
1,608
|
1,734
|
1,863
|
2,015
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
1,342
|
1,491
|
1,681
|
1,882
|
2,126
|
2,386
|
2,668
|
2,888
|
3,123
|
3,377
|
3,651
|
3,947
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
671
|
618
|
792
|
890
|
1,007
|
1,133
|
1,270
|
1,401
|
1,515
|
1,644
|
1,788
|
1,931
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(17 | ) | (103 | ) | (127 | ) | (135 | ) | (145 | ) | (88 | ) | (122 | ) | (125 | ) | (130 | ) | (152 | ) |
44
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
45
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
Perp.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
29
|
34
|
35
|
37
|
39
|
41
|
44
|
48
|
55
|
58
|
63
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
14.3 | % | 4.5 | % | 6.5 | % | 4.6 | % | 5.3 | % | 5.5 | % | 11.2 | % | 13.6 | % | 4.8 | % | 9.2 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(7 | ) | (8 | ) | (8 | ) | (9 | ) | (9 | ) | (9 | ) | (10 | ) | (11 | ) | (13 | ) | (13 | ) | (14 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
23
|
26
|
27
|
29
|
30
|
32
|
34
|
37
|
42
|
44
|
49
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
11
|
8
|
9
|
19
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Capex
|
(15 | ) | (8 | ) | (6 | ) | (11 | ) | (8 | ) | (13 | ) | (12 | ) | (12 | ) | (12 | ) | (9 | ) | (19 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
(12 | ) | (13 | ) | (13 | ) | (12 | ) | (10 | ) | (11 | ) | (11 | ) | (12 | ) | (12 | ) | (13 | ) | (14 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
5
|
14
|
18
|
17
|
23
|
20
|
23
|
25
|
27
|
31
|
35
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
199.4 | % | 28.0 | % | (6.2 | %) | 38.7 | % | (12.7 | %) | 14.0 | % | 6.4 | % | 7.7 | % | 18.4 | % | 11.1 | % |
Note:
|
Annual
free cash flow in US$ millions
|
Source:
|
Based
on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga
management
|
TEV (R$ million) (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ TEV/ 2007 EBITDA (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ |
46
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
47
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
48
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital (R$
million)
|
2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
145
|
255
|
280
|
310
|
340
|
368
|
392
|
417
|
445
|
475
|
506
|
539
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
232
|
310
|
338
|
375
|
412
|
446
|
474
|
505
|
539
|
575
|
613
|
653
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
87
|
55
|
59
|
65
|
71
|
77
|
82
|
88
|
93
|
100
|
107
|
114
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(25 | ) | (30 | ) | (31 | ) | (28 | ) | (23 | ) | (26 | ) | (28 | ) | (29 | ) | (31 | ) | (33 | ) |
Source:
|
Based
on company information and an external consultant,
confirmed by Ipiranga management
|
49
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
50
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Perp.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
402
|
294
|
273
|
228
|
231
|
315
|
365
|
454
|
521
|
488
|
374
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
(3.6 | %) | (26.9 | %) | (6.9 | %) | (16.5 | %) | 1.1 | % | 36.6 | % | 15.6 | % | 24.6 | % | 14.6 | % | (6.4 | %) | 2.0 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(132 | ) | (96 | ) | (90 | ) | (75 | ) | (76 | ) | (103 | ) | (119 | ) | (149 | ) | (171 | ) | (160 | ) | (122 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
270
|
198
|
184
|
154
|
155
|
212
|
245
|
306
|
350
|
328
|
251
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
109
|
107
|
105
|
105
|
45
|
8
|
9
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
31
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Capex
|
(26 | ) | (26 | ) | (27 | ) | (27 | ) | (28 | ) | (28 | ) | (29 | ) | (29 | ) | (30 | ) | (30 | ) | (31 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
24
|
41
|
4
|
17
|
(5 | ) | (42 | ) | (26 | ) | (45 | ) | (35 | ) |
10
|
0
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
378
|
319
|
266
|
248
|
169
|
150
|
199
|
242
|
297
|
321
|
251
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
(15.5 | %) | (16.6 | %) | (6.6 | %) | (32.2 | %) | (11.2 | %) | 33.1 | % | 21.3 | % | 23.0 | % | 7.9 | % | (21.6 | %) |
Note:
|
Annual
free cash flow in US$ millions
|
Source:
|
Based
on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga
management
|
TEV (R$ million) ---------------- (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management TEV/Normalized EBITDA --------------------- Note: EBITDA normalized for the industry cycle (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
51
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
52
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
53
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) |
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
459
|
557
|
506
|
414
|
406
|
366
|
377
|
478
|
543
|
655
|
744
|
719
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
795
|
1,061
|
982
|
795
|
776
|
694
|
714
|
917
|
1,046
|
1,272
|
1,450
|
1,398
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
336
|
504
|
476
|
380
|
370
|
328
|
337
|
439
|
503
|
617
|
706
|
678
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
51
|
92
|
8
|
40
|
(11 | ) | (101 | ) | (65 | ) | (112 | ) | (89 | ) |
25
|
54
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
55
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
|
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Perp.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
87
|
89
|
86
|
73
|
83
|
79
|
86
|
96
|
106
|
104
|
80
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
2.2
|
%
|
(3.2
|
%)
|
(15.9
|
%)
|
14.2
|
%
|
(4.7
|
%)
|
8.8
|
%
|
12.2
|
%
|
10.5
|
%
|
(2.7
|
%)
|
2.0
|
%
|
|||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(22
|
)
|
(22
|
)
|
(22
|
)
|
(18
|
)
|
(21
|
)
|
(20
|
)
|
(21
|
)
|
(24
|
)
|
(27
|
)
|
(26
|
)
|
(20
|
)
|
||||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
65
|
67
|
65
|
54
|
62
|
59
|
64
|
72
|
80
|
78
|
60
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Capex
|
(5
|
)
|
(5
|
)
|
(5
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(17
|
)
|
||||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
15
|
(0
|
)
|
0
|
(1
|
)
|
1
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
1
|
(1
|
)
|
0
|
|||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
90
|
77
|
75
|
63
|
73
|
68
|
74
|
82
|
91
|
87
|
60
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
(15.2
|
%)
|
(2.3
|
%)
|
(15.5
|
%)
|
14.9
|
%
|
(6.4
|
%)
|
8.6
|
%
|
10.5
|
%
|
11.1
|
%
|
(3.9
|
%)
|
(31.5
|
%)
|
TEV (R$ million) (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ TEV/ Average EBITDA (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ |
56
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
57
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
58
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
(36
|
)
|
68
|
36
|
36 |
36
|
38
|
37
|
40
|
41
|
43
|
41
|
43
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
409
|
619
|
517
|
522 |
474
|
438
|
437
|
462
|
509
|
588
|
570
|
564
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
445
|
551
|
481
|
486 |
439
|
400
|
400
|
422
|
468
|
545
|
529
|
522
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
32
|
(0
|
)
|
1
|
(3
|
)
|
1
|
(3
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(2
|
)
|
2
|
(2
|
)
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
Source:
Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga
management
|
59
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
60
|
Economic value of underlying assets |
Section
3
|
|
TEV/’06
|
|||||
Company
|
Description
|
TEV
(R$mm)
|
EBITDA
|
|||
n
|
The
business has operated on a break even basis (sometimes
given
|
|||||
Refinaria
de Petróleo Ipiranga
|
special
tax incentives by the State)
|
9
|
6.5x
|
|||
(RIPI)
|
||||||
n
|
Valuation
based on comparable trading companies
|
|||||
n
|
A
chemical products distributor with over 5,000 clients in
50
different
|
|||||
Ipiranga
Química S.A. (IQ)
|
|
markets
|
176
|
8.6x
|
||
n
|
Valuation
based on precedent transactions
|
|||||
n
|
A
producer of specialty petrochemicals; consolidated by CBPI
SA
|
|||||
Empresa
Carioca de Produtos
|
n
|
Valuation
based on comparable trading companies
|
18
|
6.3x
|
||
Químicos
S.A. (EMCA)
|
||||||
|
n
|
Comparable
sample includes both specialty and commodity
|
||||
|
petrochemical
trading companies
|
|||||
n
|
A
producer of asphalt and pavement surface products
|
|||||
Ipiranga
Asfaltos (IASA)
|
89
|
6.8x
|
||||
n
|
Valuation
based on precedent transactions
|
|||||
n
|
A
retail convenience store chain attached to DPPI and CBPI
gas
stations,
|
|||||
AM/PM
Comestíveis
|
|
consolidated
by CBPI
|
236
|
7.5x
|
||
n
|
Valuation
based on comparable trading companies
|
|||||
n
|
A
subsidiary that owns 152 and operates 15 of the gas stations
in
DPPI’s
|
|||||
Isa-sul
Administração e Part. Ltda.
|
|
region
|
140
|
8.8x
|
||
n
|
Valuation
based on the same implied multiple as DPPI
|
61
|
Final
considerations
|
Section
4
|
62
|
Final considerations |
Section
4
|
-5%
|
Mid-range
|
+5%
|
||||
CBPI
|
26.97
|
28.39
|
29.81
|
|||
DPPI
|
41.11
|
43.28
|
45.44
|
|||
RIPI
|
51.63
|
54.35
|
57.06
|
|||
Ultrapar
|
64.48
|
67.87
|
71.26
|
63
|
Glossary |
Section
5
|
64
|
Glossary |
Section
5
|
■ |
Beta:
beta against the S&P500, a measure of systemic risk
|
■ |
Capital
Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): methodology used to define the cost
of equity
|
■ |
Capex:
Capital Expenditures
|
■ |
Cost
of Equity (Ke): return required by the equity
holder
|
■ | Cost of debt(Kd): cost of third party financing |
■ |
CVM:
Comissão de Valores Mobiliários
|
■ |
D&A:
depreciation and amortization
|
■ |
Net
debt: Cash and cash equivalents, net position in derivatives,
export notes, short and long-term bank loans, receivable and
payable
dividends, short and long-term receivables and payables related
to
debentures, short and long-term pension funds deficits, provisions,
and
other receivables and payables to related parties, including
subscription
bonus (“bonus de subscricão”)
|
■ |
Drivers:
value drivers or key drivers
|
■ |
EBIT:
Earnings Before Interests and Taxes
|
■ |
EBITDA:
Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and
Amortization
|
■ |
EV
or TEV: Enterprise value
|
■ |
Equity
value: TEV minus net debt
|
■ | Dollar: American Dollar |
■ |
DCF:
Discounted cash flow
|
■ |
FCFF:
Free Cash Flow to
Firm
|
■ | Operating cash flow: relates to cash inflows and outflows solely related to the operations |
■ |
JCP:
interest on capital (“Juros sobre Capital Próprio”)
|
■ |
LTM:
Last twelve months
|
■ |
IPCA:
consumer price index
|
■ |
NOPLAT:
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes
|
■ |
ON:
“Ação Ordinária” ordinary or voting share
|
■ |
PN:
“Ação Preferencial” preferred or non-voting share
|
■ |
ERP:
equity risk premium is the expected premium for investing in
stocks
|
■ |
CRP:
country risk premium is the expected premium for investing in
a certain
specific country
|
■ |
Spread:
price or yield differential
|
■ |
“Tag-along”:
(minority) shareholders right to join a transaction in which
another
shareholder (usually controlling shareholder) is selling their
stake. In
Brazil, the legislation specifies that voting shareholders of
public
entities have the right to receive a minimum offer of 80% the
price to be
paid for control (the 80% tag-along right)
|
■ |
Risk
free rate:US Treasury
|
■ |
TJLP:
“Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo”, Brazilian long term interest
rate
|
■ |
Terminal
value:: value of the company at the end of the
projection
|
■ |
NPV:
net present value
|
■ |
VPL:
vValor pPresente lLíquido
|
■ |
WACC:
Weighted Average Cost of
Capital
|
65
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
66
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
Month
|
PN
Price
|
Volume
|
||
March-06(a)
|
38.27
|
676
|
||
April-06
|
36.41
|
990
|
||
May-06
|
36.99
|
1,078
|
||
June-06
|
34.49
|
1,511
|
||
July-06
|
33.88
|
1,159
|
||
August-06
|
35.51
|
1,503
|
||
September-06
|
38.48
|
905
|
||
October-06
|
40.40
|
1,296
|
||
November-06
|
47.58
|
1,702
|
||
December-06
|
47.75
|
1,088
|
||
January-07
|
51.07
|
1,938
|
||
February-07
|
53.02
|
2,530
|
||
March-07(b)
|
50.78
|
733
|
||
WA
share price
|
R$43.1
|
Month
|
PN
Price
|
Volume
|
ON
Price
|
Volume
|
||||
March-06(a)
|
15.65
|
3,401
|
20.00
|
6
|
||||
April-06
|
17.94
|
6,389
|
20.75
|
16
|
||||
May-06
|
17.84
|
5,933
|
21.83
|
3
|
||||
June-06
|
17.48
|
5,717
|
20.63
|
7
|
||||
July-06
|
17.02
|
5,001
|
21.83
|
4
|
||||
August-06
|
17.30
|
6,600
|
24.12
|
0
|
||||
September-06
|
17.28
|
4,821
|
21.11
|
3
|
||||
October-06
|
18.78
|
4,459
|
21.29
|
24
|
||||
November-06
|
18.56
|
4,189
|
21.67
|
17
|
||||
December-06
|
18.96
|
4,221
|
21.93
|
23
|
||||
January-07
|
19.18
|
4,891
|
22.22
|
12
|
||||
February-07
|
22.28
|
3,579
|
26.04
|
7
|
||||
March-07(b)
|
22.36
|
3,322
|
27.87
|
1
|
||||
WA
share price
|
R$18.3
|
R$21.7
|
Month
|
PN
Price
|
Volume
|
ON
Price
|
Volume
|
||||
March-06(a)
|
23.61
|
84
|
39.05
|
83
|
||||
April-06
|
24.96
|
665
|
35.83
|
123
|
||||
May-06
|
28.95
|
1,134
|
36.52
|
266
|
||||
June-06
|
30.59
|
425
|
36.99
|
144
|
||||
July-06
|
30.10
|
323
|
36.21
|
72
|
||||
August-06
|
31.22
|
497
|
37.35
|
166
|
||||
September-06
|
33.17
|
415
|
38.45
|
56
|
||||
October-06
|
35.80
|
437
|
39.69
|
95
|
||||
November-06
|
37.01
|
353
|
41.51
|
139
|
||||
December-06
|
37.36
|
289
|
42.56
|
93
|
||||
January-07
|
37.44
|
568
|
43.72
|
95
|
||||
February-07
|
40.63
|
371
|
50.00
|
141
|
||||
March-07(b)
|
42.54
|
292
|
70.48
|
370
|
||||
WA
share price
|
R$32.7
|
R$45.8
|
Month
|
PN
Price
|
Volume
|
ON
Price
|
Volume
|
||||
March-06(a)
|
23.03
|
38
|
39.00
|
2
|
||||
April-06
|
24.01
|
251
|
42.47
|
2
|
||||
May-06
|
25.12
|
185
|
38.05
|
2
|
||||
June-06
|
24.02
|
398
|
42.92
|
1
|
||||
July-06
|
24.09
|
113
|
35.74
|
2
|
||||
August-06
|
23.20
|
261
|
32.25
|
2
|
||||
September-06
|
23.09
|
115
|
36.54
|
0
|
||||
October-06
|
23.08
|
318
|
30.20
|
2
|
||||
November-06
|
23.71
|
460
|
27.71
|
1
|
||||
December-06
|
25.54
|
316
|
28.69
|
2
|
||||
January-07
|
27.98
|
239
|
30.00
|
1
|
||||
February-07
|
32.70
|
138
|
35.00
|
0
|
||||
March-07(b)
|
33.08
|
87
|
55.96
|
8
|
||||
WA
share price
|
R$25.0
|
R$41.7
|
67
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
LTM ending 3/16/2007 -------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max N.A 56.95 W.A. N.A 43.08 Min N.A 31.77 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset 3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 --------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max N.A 63.75 W.A. N.A 56.10 Min N.A 49.29 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset |
68
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
LTM ending 3/16/2007 -------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 80.15 45.70 W.A. 45.81 32.75 Min 34.00 22.55 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset 3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 --------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 97.68 47.50 W.A. 91.57 44.85 Min 80.15 41.51 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset |
69
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
LTM ending 3/16/2007 -------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 30.80 23.88 W.A. 21.72 18.32 Min 20.00 14.58 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset 3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 --------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 53.50 25.30 W.A. 52.55 23.28 Min 30.80 22.10 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset |
70
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
LTM ending 3/16/2007 -------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 60.00 34.99 W.A. 41.69 24.99 Min 27.50 22.00 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset 3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 --------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 102.02 38.98 W.A. 96.53 34.69 Min 60.00 33.00 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset |
71
|
Comparable multiples |
Appendix
II
|
72
|
Comparable multiples |
Appendix
II
|
Comparable
public company analysis - commodities
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
TEV
/
EBITDA
|
|
|
|||||||
Company name |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Nova
|
$29.70
|
$2,477
|
$4,208
|
6.2x
|
5.2x
|
0.6x
|
0.7x
|
|||||||
BASF
|
$100.83
|
50,506
|
65,198
|
4.9x
|
4.9x
|
0.9x
|
0.9x
|
|||||||
Westlake
|
$27.32
|
1,784
|
1,992
|
4.9x
|
5.1x
|
0.8x
|
0.7x
|
|||||||
Dow
|
$43.38
|
41,949
|
49,950
|
6.4x
|
6.4x
|
1.0x
|
1.0x
|
|||||||
Lyondell
PF(pigments sale)
|
$30.40
|
7,664
|
14,714
|
4.7x
|
4.9x
|
0.6x
|
0.6x
|
|||||||
Braskem
|
$6.46
|
2,332
|
4,484
|
5.7x
|
5.6x
|
0.8x
|
0.9x
|
|||||||
Suzano
Petroquimica
|
$2.16
|
488
|
1,220
|
n.a.
|
6.4x
|
1.1x
|
0.9x
|
|||||||
Petroquimica
União
|
$4.94
|
518
|
716
|
5.2x
|
6.6x
|
0.5x
|
0.5x
|
|||||||
Mean
|
5.5x
|
5.6x
|
0.8x
|
|
||||||||||
Median
|
5.2x
|
5.4x
|
0.8x
|
|
||||||||||
Max
|
6.4x
|
6.6x
|
1.1x
|
|
||||||||||
Min
|
4.7x
|
4.9x
|
0.5x
|
|
Comparable
public company analysis - specialties
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
TEV
/
EBITDA
|
|
|
|||||||
Company name |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Clariant
|
$16.05
|
3,637
|
4,973
|
6.9x
|
6.8x
|
0.7x
|
|
|||||||
Rhodia
|
$3.50
|
4,220
|
6,794
|
7.1x
|
6.7x
|
1.1x
|
|
|||||||
Lubrizol
|
$51.10
|
3,601
|
4,665
|
8.2x
|
7.7x
|
1.2x
|
|
|||||||
Huntsman
|
$18.94
|
4,433
|
7,432
|
7.7x
|
6.4x
|
0.8x
|
|
|||||||
Celanese
|
$30.40
|
5,288
|
7,619
|
6.6x
|
6.8x
|
1.3x
|
|
|||||||
Mean
|
7.3x
|
6.9x
|
1.0x
|
|
||||||||||
Median
|
7.1x
|
6.8x
|
1.1x
|
|
||||||||||
Max
|
8.2x
|
7.7x
|
1.3x
|
|
||||||||||
Min
|
6.6x
|
6.4x
|
0.7x
|
|
73
|
Comparable multiples |
Appendix
II
|
Precedent
transaction analysis - Chemical distributors
|
TEV/LTM
|
LTM Metric | |||||||
Target - Buyer |
Date
|
TEV
|
EBITDA
|
EBITDA | ||||
ChemCentral
- Univar
|
Mar-07
|
$650
|
9.3x
|
|
||||
INT
Muellor Chemical - NIB Capital
|
Jun-01
|
228
|
8.8x
|
|
||||
HCI
- Brenntag
|
Nov-00
|
|
306
|
8.5x
|
|
|||
Ellis
& Everard - Vopak Distribution
|
Jan-01
|
480
|
6.1x
|
|
||||
Mean
|
|
|||||||
Median
|
|
|||||||
Max
|
|
|||||||
Min
|
|
Comparable
public company analysis -
Retail Brazil
|
Market
|
TEV
/
EBITDA
|
|||||||||
Company name |
Cap.
|
TEV
|
2006A |
2007E
|
||||||
Pao
de Acucar - CBD
|
|
$4,042
|
$4,687
|
7.5x
|
5.8x
|
74
|
Comparable multiples |
Appendix
II
|
Comparable
public company analysis -
Refiners
|
Share
price
|
Market
|
TEV
/
EBITDA
|
Price
to earnings
|
|||||||||||||||
Company |
3/23/2007
|
Cap
|
TEV
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
|||||||||
Alon
USA
|
$36.30
|
$1,699
|
$2,175
|
8.7x
|
6.6x
|
8.4x
|
14.4x
|
10.6x
|
13.4x
|
|||||||||
Delek
US Holdings
|
18.77
|
973
|
1,158
|
6.5
|
6.4
|
6.3
|
9.7
|
10.4
|
11.1
|
|||||||||
Frontier
Oil
|
33.08
|
3,628
|
3,372
|
5.5
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
9.8
|
11.9
|
12.9
|
|||||||||
Average
|
6.9
|
6.5
|
7.0
|
11.3
|
11.0
|
12.5
|
||||||||||||
Median
|
6.5
|
6.4
|
6.3
|
9.8
|
10.6
|
12.9
|
||||||||||||
Max
|
8.7
|
6.6
|
8.4
|
14.4
|
11.9
|
13.4
|
||||||||||||
Min
|
5.5
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
9.7
|
10.4
|
11.1
|
Precedent
transaction analysis - Asphalt producers
|
TEV
/
|
TEV
/
|
|||||||
Target / Buyer |
Date
|
TEV
|
LTM
EBITDA
|
LTM
Sales
|
||||
Frehner
Construction / Aggregate Industries
|
5/11/2004
|
95.8
|
NA
|
0.6x
|
||||
Better
Materials Corp. / Hanson Building Materials
|
7/18/2003
|
155
|
7.3x
|
1.3x
|
||||
S.E.
Johnson / CRH plc
|
5/16/2003
|
177
|
6.3x
|
0.7x
|
||||
Kiew
it Materials / CSR
|
10/2/2002
|
648
|
8.8x
|
1.3x
|
||||
Mount
Hope Rock Products / CRH plc
|
4/30/2001
|
138
|
7.3x
|
1.3x
|
||||
Northern
Ohio Paving and Dolomite Group / CRH plc
|
6/21/2000
|
172
|
5.9x
|
1.3x
|
||||
The
Shelly Company / CRH plc
|
2/24/2000
|
362
|
5.7x
|
1.1x
|
||||
Thompson-McCully
/ CRH plc
|
7/12/1999
|
422
|
8.0x
|
1.7x
|
||||
Dell
Contractors and Millington Quarry / CRH plc
|
7/5/1999
|
146
|
5.6x
|
1.0x
|
||||
MA
Segale - Icon Materials / CRH plc
|
5/1/1998
|
60
|
NA
|
1.2x
|
||||
Mean
|
6.9x
|
1.1x
|
||||||
Median
|
6.8x
|
1.2x
|
||||||
Max
|
8.8x
|
1.7x
|
||||||
Min
|
5.6x
|
0.6x
|
75
|
ULTRAPAR
HOLDINGS INC.
|
||
Date:
April 13, 2007 |
|
|
By: | /s/ André Covre | |
Name: | André Covre | |
Title: |
Chief
Financial and Investor Relations
Officer
|