Filer: Ultrapar Participações S.A.
Issuer: Ultrapar Participações S.A.
Subject of the offer: Refinaria de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A.,
Distribuidora de Produtos de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. and
Companhia Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A.
Commission File Number: 001-14950
 
Investors will be able to obtain copies of the offering document and other documents from the SEC's Public Reference Room at 100 F Street N.E., Washington D.C., 20549. Please call the SEC at 1-800-SEC-0330 for further information on the Public Reference Room. The documents may also be obtained from the website maintained by the SEC at http://www.sec.gov, which contains reports and other information regarding registrants that file electronically with the SEC. In addition, documents (including any exhibits) filed with the SEC by Ultrapar Participações S.A. will be available free of charge from the Investor Relations office of Ultrapar Participações S.A., located at Avenida Brigadeiro Luis Antonio, 1343, 9º Andar São Paulo, SP, Brazil 01317-910, tel: 011-55-11-3177-6695. PLEASE, READ THE DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING A DECISION REGARDING THE MERGER.


This communication shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
 

 
 
Strictly private and confidential
 
   
 
 

 
Valuation Report to Ultrapar Participações
 

 
Ultrapar Participações S.A., Refinaria Petroleo Ipiranga S.A., Distribuidora de Produtos de Petroleo Ipiranga S.A., Companhia Brasileira de Petroleo Ipiranga
 

 
April 4, 2007


A Passion to Perform.
 
 
 

 
 
  
   
Disclaimer

n
These materials may only be used by Ultrapar Participações S.A. (“Ultrapar”) for the purposes defined in the engagement letter signed with Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. (“Deutsche Bank”). Neither Deutsche Bank nor any of its affiliates or any of its or their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, advisors, agents or representatives (collectively, “Deutsche Bank Representatives”) makes any express or implied representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the materials set forth herein or provides advice relating to tax, accounting, legal, antitrust, or other regulatory matters. Nothing contained in the accompanying materials is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or the future
 
n
In connection with Deutsche Bank’s role of “conducting a valuation analysis / preparing a valuation report” for Ultrapar, and in preparing its report as to the respective valuations of Companhia Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga (“CBPI”), Distribuidora de Produtos de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. (“DPPI”) and Refinaria de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. (“RIPI”) (collectively, “Ipiranga”, or the “Ipiranga Group”) and Ultrapar, Deutsche Bank has reviewed certain publicly available financial and other information concerning Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group and certain internal analyses and other information furnished to it by Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group. Deutsche Bank has also held discussions with members of the senior managements of Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group, and with respect to certain assets, the senior management of Braskem, regarding the businesses and prospects of their respective companies and the operations of the combined company following the transactions described herein. In addition, Deutsche Bank has (i) reviewed the reported prices and trading activity for Ultrapar’s and the Ipiranga Group’s stock, (ii) compared certain financial and stock market information for Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group with similar information for certain other companies whose securities are publicly traded, (iii) reviewed the financial terms of certain recent business combinations which it deemed comparable in whole or in part, (iv) reviewed the terms of the agreements governing the transaction, and (v) performed such other studies and analyses and considered such other factors as it deemed appropriate

 
 
i

 
 
  
   
Disclaimer (continued)

n
Deutsche Bank has not assumed responsibility for independent verification of, and has not independently verified, any information, whether publicly available or furnished to it, concerning Ultrapar or the Ipiranga Group, including, without limitation, any financial information, forecasts or projections considered in connection with the preparation of its report as to the respective valuations of Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group. Accordingly, for purposes of its report, Deutsche Bank has assumed and relied upon the accuracy and completeness of all such information and Deutsche Bank has not conducted a physical inspection of any of the properties or assets, and has not prepared or obtained any independent evaluation or appraisal of any of the assets or liabilities, of Ultrapar or the Ipiranga Group. However, Deutsche Bank considers consistent the information used in this Report
 
n
It should be understood that any valuations, financial and other forecasts and/or estimates or projections and other assumptions contained in the accompanying materials (including, without limitation, regarding financial and operating performance), were prepared or derived from information (whether oral or in writing) supplied solely by the respective managements of Ultrapar, the Ipiranga Group and Braskem or derived from other public sources, without any independent verification by Deutsche Bank, and involve numerous and significant subjective determinations and assumptions by Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group, which may not be correct. As a result, it is expected that there will be a difference between actual and estimated or projected results, and actual results may vary materially from those shown herein. In addition, with respect to any such information made available to Deutsche Bank and used in its analyses, Deutsche Bank has assumed that they have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of the respective managements of Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group as to the matters covered thereby. The Report observes the requirements imposed by Brazilian Securities Regulation, in particular Rule #361/02 of the Brazilian Securities Commission ("CVM")
 
n
Accordingly, in preparing its report as to the respective valuations of Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group, neither Deutsche Bank nor any of the Deutsche Bank Representatives make any express or implied representation or warranty, or express any view, as to the accuracy, reasonableness, completeness or achievability of any such financial and other forecasts and/or estimates or projections, or as to the determinations or assumptions on which they are based.  Deutsche Bank’s report is necessarily based upon economic, market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information made available to it as of, the date hereof


 
 
ii

 
 
  
   
Disclaimer (continued)
 
n
Deutsche Bank has also assumed that all material governmental, regulatory or other approvals and consents required in connection with the consummation of the transaction will be obtained and that in connection with obtaining any necessary governmental, regulatory or other approvals and consents, or any amendments, modifications or waivers to any agreements, instruments or orders to which either Ultrapar or the Ipiranga Group is a party or is subject or by which it is bound, no limitations, restrictions or conditions will be imposed or amendments, modifications or waivers made that would have a material adverse effect on Ultrapar or the Ipiranga Group or materially reduce the contemplated benefits of the transaction to Ultrapar
 
n
This Report was based on the information available until today, and the views expressed are subject to change based upon a number of factors, including market conditions and Ultrapar’s and the Ipiranga Group’s business and prospects. Deutsche Bank does not undertake any obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials after the date hereof
 
n
This Report and its conclusions are not recommendations by Deutsche Bank as to whether Ipiranga shareholders should tender their shares in the mandatory tender offer, or to Ultrapar or Ipiranga shareholders as to the fairness to such shareholders, from a financial point of view, of the exchange ratio in the incorporation of RIPI, CBPI, DPPI shares in Ultrapar. Each shareholder must reach its own conclusions about the advisability of accepting the offer presented by Ultrapar and the incorporation of the shares of CBPI, DBPI and RIPI by Ultrapar
 
n
This valuation report incorporates the changes requested by the Brazilian Securities Exchange Commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários – CVM) detailed in the following documents: (i) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1017/2007, (ii) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1018/2007, (iii) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1019/2007, (iv) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1427/2007, (v) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1428/2007, (vi) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1429/2007 and (vii) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1703/2007. This revised book does not present a different assessment of value than the one presented by Deutsche Bank on the Valuation Report dated July 4th, 2007


 
 
iii

 
 
     
   
Contents

Section
   
1
Executive summary
1
2
Valuation summary
9
 
A
Ultrapar
10
 
B
RIPI
13
 
C
DPPI
16
 
D
CBPI
19
3
Economic value of assets
22
 
A
Ultrapar
26
 
B
Ultrapar prior to the share merger
37
 
C
Fuel distribution – CBPI
39
 
D
Fuel distribution – DPPI
45
 
E
Copesul
50
 
F
IPQ
55
 
G
Valuation of other assets based on multiples
60
4
Final considerations
62
5
Glossary
64
     
     
Appendix
   
I
Share price evolution
68
II
Comparable multiples
74
III
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate
78
IV
Calculation backup
82
V
Other relevant information
91

 
 

 
Executive summary
Section 1
   

 

 
Section 1

Executive summary
 
 
 

 1
 

 
Executive summary
Section 1
   
Initial considerations
 

 
n
This appraisal report (“Report” or “Valuation Report”) was prepared by Deutsche Bank as requested by Ultrapar
 
n
The Report observes the requirements imposed by Brazilian Securities Regulation, in particular Rule #361/02 of the Brazilian Securities Commission (“CVM”). Ultrapar requested this Report to be used in connection with (i) the mandatory tender offers related to the acquisition by Ultrapar of the control of Ipiranga Group, and (ii) the incorporation of CBPI, DPPI and RIPI shares in Ultrapar
 
n
The ranges for the respective valuations of Ultrapar, CBPI, DPPI and RIPI are limited to 10% due to a requirement imposed by Rule #361/02 of the CVM


 2
 

 
Executive summary
Section 1
 
Scope of Deutsche Bank’s analysis
 

 
The objective of this Valuation Report is to present economic valuations of both Ultrapar and Ipiranga Group in accordance with the criteria defined as mandatory by the CVM
 
Under the CVM Rule #361/02, Deutsche Bank has conducted an analysis using the following methodologies and assumptions:

 
n
Economic value based on discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis for the main operating companies and comparable multiples for some smaller operating subsidiaries
 
Based on publicly available information and discussions with management of Ultrapar and Ipiranga
 
 
n
Market value based on average share prices weighted by traded volume
 
Average share price weighted by traded volume during the last twelve months ended March 16, 2007 (last trading day pre-announcement)
 
 
n
Book value of the shares
 
Based on Ultrapar and Ipiranga’s audited financial statements as of December 31,2006

Among the different valuation methodologies presented in this Valuation Report, Deutsche Bank believes that economic value based on DCF and comparable multiples is the most applicable methodology for valuing Ultrapar and Ipiranga

Economic value - methodologies for different business lines
   
Discounted cash flow
 
Codename
 
WACC
 
Public company comparables
 
Codename
Companhia Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga
 
CBPI
 
12.2%
 
Ipiranga Química S.A.
 
IQ
Distribuidora de Prod. de Petróleo Ipiranga
 
DPPI
 
12.3%
 
Empresa Carioca de Prod. Químicos S.A.
 
EMCA
Copesul Central Química
 
Copesul
 
11.2%
 
Ipiranga Asfaltos
 
IASA
Ipiranga Petroquímica S.A.
 
IPQ
 
11.8%
 
AM/PM Comestíveis
 
AM/PM
Ultrapar Participações
 
Ultrapar
 
10.6%
 
Isa-Sul Administração e Part. Ltda
 
Isa-sul
            Refinaria Petróleo Ipiranga S.A.   Refinery
 
 3
 

 
Executive summary
Section 1
 
Valuation range - price per share

 
 

(a) Based on discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) and comparable multiples
(b) Market value based on weighted average shares for the 12 months prior to
date of announcement (c) Book value based on latest public company filing dated
12/31/2006
 
 4
 

 
Executive summary
Section 1
 
Conducting the economic valuation

The three main economic valuation methodologies used were: Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”), comparable public companies’ multiples and comparable precedent transaction multiples
 
   
Discounted Cash Flow
- DCF Analysis
 
Comparable Public
Company Analysis
 
Comparable Precedent
Transaction Analysis
Methodology
 
 
 
  • Un-levered projections of cash flow to the firm
  • Terminal value calculation based on perpetuity growth (Gordon’s growth model) or exit multiple
  • Cash flow and terminal value discounted by a discount rate that corresponds to the Company’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (“WACC”)
 
 
 
  • Identification of listed companies that are comparable to the business being assessed
  • Calculation of value (TEV or equity) as a multiple of value drivers (sales, Ebitda, earnings, etc.)
  • Multiples of value are applied to the corresponding value driver of the Company being assessed
 
 
 
  • Identification of transactions involving companies with comparable activities
  • Calculation of the implied multiples of value in those transactions
  • Multiples of value are applied to the corresponding value driver of the Company being assessed
Potential
advantages
 
 
 
 
  • Estimates the intrinsic value of the Company
  • Valuation takes into consideration the risk-return profile of the investment, and can be adjusted for the country risk
  • Takes into consideration the company’s capital structure
  • More flexibility to incorporate expected changes in the business profile such as change in product mix, capacity expansion, etc.
 
 
  • In efficient markets, it properly reflects the market consensus of value of a given industry
  • Reflects historical performance and industry trends
 
 
  • Reflects the implied value of transactions in a given industry
 
Potential
disadvantages
 
 
  • Subject to different view of the Company’s future generation of cash and risk
  • Uncertainties of longer forecasts
 
 
 
  • Difficulty to identify companies that are comparable to the asset being assessed
  • Does not reflect differences among the companies such as capital structure, profitability, management, etc
  • Results can be affected by adverse situations not linked to valuation (macroeconomic, political, etc.)
 
 
 
 
  • Difficulty to identify companies/ transactions that are comparable
  • Characteristics of the transaction might affect valuation such as competitiveness of the sale process, estimated synergies of the potential buyer, defensive play, etc
  • It does not reflect the differences among the companies’ potential returns
  • Limited public information available
Considerations
 
  • Maximum flexibility to incorporate in the valuation several value drivers such as discount rate (driven by capital structure, country risk, cost of equity), perpetuity growth and expected performance (as opposed to historical performance)
 
 
 
  • Limited sample in the local market requires evaluator to expand to different markets (normally with different characteristics)
  • Does not incorporate specific nature of the company being assessed
  • Based on historical performance, it incorporates market trend
 
 
 
  • Limited sample
Notes: (1) TEV - Total Enterprise Value = Equity plus Net debt.    
 
 5
 

 
Executive summary
Section 1
 
Deutsche Bank credentials

n
Headquartered in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, Deutsche Bank is the largest bank in Germany, and one of the largest financial institutions in Europe and the world, as measured by total assets of € 1,126 billion as of December 31, 2006. As of that date, Deutsche Bank employed 68,849 people on a full-time equivalent basis, operating in 73 countries out of 1,717 facilities worldwide, of which 54 % were in Germany. Deutsche Bank offers a wide variety of investment, financial and related products and services to private individuals, corporate entities and institutional clients around the world (source: Deutsche Bank’s 2006 annual report)
 
n
Deutsche Bank and its affiliates’ expertise in assessing Brazilian publicly listed companies includes: the advisory to Ashmore Energy International on the acquisition of Prisma Energy International in 2006, and the fairness opinion valuation of Companhia Siderúrgica Belgo Mineira in 2005
 
n
In addition to that, Deutsche Bank was responsible for the valuation report of Cia. Metalic Nordeste for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (“CSN”) in 2002
 
n
Deutsche Bank or its affiliates also advised La Seda de Barcelona S.A. (“LSB”) on the acquisition of Eastman Chemical Iberica S.A. from Eastman Chemical Company in 2007, advised Linde AG on the sale of equipment business of BOC Edwards to CCMP Capital in 2007, advised Gazprom on the sale of a 10.7% stake to Rosneftegaz, advised ConocoPhillips on the divestment of selected European downstream assets (pending), advised Giant Industries on its sale to Western Refining Inc. and provided a fairness opinion valuation (pending), and is advising Valero on strategic alternatives for the Lima, Ohio refinery, among other assignments
 
n
Other selected transactions that involved valuation of public companies include: the advisory to Fairchild Semiconductor International in its acquisition of System General Corp, and the advisory to Healthcare REIT in its acquisition of Windrose Medical Properties Trust. Deutsche Bank also acted as advisor to International DisplayWorks Inc. when it was acquired by Flextronics International Ltd. and to US LEC Corp when it merged with Paetec Communications, Inc. All these transactions required a fairness opinion valuation
 
n
Deutsche Bank and its affiliates have a qualified team of professionals based in New York and São Paulo led by Mr. Ian Reid who was responsible for producing this Report
 
n
In delivering the Report, Deutsche Bank followed its internal policies applicable to the delivery of valuation reports, including forming an internal valuation committee to review and approve the report
 
The valuation committee is comprised of at least 3 senior bankers from the M&A department that had met at least twice as it is usual on the 2nd and 4th of April

 6
 

 
Executive summary
Section 1
 
Additional considerations

n
The date of this Report is April 4, 2007
 
n
This Report may be solely used in the context of the request made by Ultrapar to Deutsche Bank
 
n
Research reports prepared by different areas of Deutsche Bank may utilize different assumptions with respect to the future performance of Ultrapar and Ipiranga than those used in the Valuation Report, and thus potentially present significantly different conclusions with respect to valuation. Those different areas at Deutsche Bank are independent to the Corporate Finance and Mergers and Acquisitions department that was responsible for the elaboration of this Report. Those different areas have their own sources of information and a different assessment about what they make available to the public in the form of publications, and there is no communication between the professionals involved in the elaboration of this report and the professionals of those different areas. Deutsche Bank has strict internal policies regarding the segregation of public and private areas at the bank and monitoring the information flow between them in order to guarantee that both areas operate independently
 
n
In compliance with the resolution CVM #361/02, Deutsche Bank states that as of April 4, 2007:
 
 
There is no commercial or credit relationship that could impact this Report
 
 
There is no conflict of interest that compromises the independence necessary to prepare this Report
 
 
Deutsche Bank and its affiliates held 8,527 non-voting shares of Braskem and 171,000 ADRs of Braskem; 62,175 voting shares of Petrobras, and 500,540 ADRs of Petrobras; Deutsche Bank and its affiliates did not hold, directly or indirectly, any shares of CBPI, DBPI and RIPI, nor did they hold shares or ADRs of Ultrapar, Petrobras or Braskem other than the shares/ADRs mentioned above
 
 
Deutsche Bank is engaged in sales and trading transactions with Petrobras and Braskem, which includes, but is not limited to, derivatives
 
 
In May 2006, Deutsche Bank received R$2,673,760.50 net of taxes from Petrobras for the advisory and structuring services rendered in connection with the acquisition of ABB's stake in Termobahia. Deutsche Bank did not receive any other fees from Ultrapar, Braskem or Petrobras in connection with financial advisory, consulting or auditing services, or any other investment banking services over the past 12 months
 
 
Deutsche Bank will receive US$3,000,000 net of taxes as a fee for the delivery of this Report
 
   
Ian Reid - Managing Director
 
 
 
 7
 

 
Executive summary
Section 1
 
Additional considerations (continued)
 
 
Ian Reid – Managing Director
 
n
Ian Reid, Managing Director for Corporate Finance and Mergers and Acquisitions for Latin America, was responsible for the preparation of this Valuation Report. Projects relevant in which Mr. Reid has been involved include the merger of Brahma and Antarctica to create Ambev, the unwinding of CSN’s controlling interest in CVRD (advisor to CVRD), acquisition of Bolivian refinery by Petrobras (advisor to Petrobras), the sale of Latasa by Bradesco, Alcoa, and JPMorgan to Rexam (advisor to the sellers), the acquisition of Panamco by Coca Cola FEMSA (advisor to Coca Cola FEMSA), the repurchase by FEMSA of Interbrew’s stake in Femsa Cerveza (advisor to FEMSA)

 
Jose Securato – Vice President
 
n
Jose Securato, Vice President for Corporate Finance and Mergers and Acquisitions for Latin America, also participated in the preparation of this Valuation Report. His experience includes, among others, advisory to Ashmore Energy International in its acquisition of Prisma Energy International in 2006 (which included valuation of Elektro), the valuation of Cia. Metalic Nordeste for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (“CSN”) in 2002, the sale of 40% of Indura in Chile in 2007, the sale of AGF Chile in 2004, the sale of Ática & Scipione in 2004, the acquisition of TCO/NBT in 2003 and Valuation Reports for the following companies or their businesses: Banco Itaú Argentina, Itausaga Corr. Seguros, Itaupromotora de Vendas, Intrag DTVM, BFB, FIBEMGE, BANERJ, CENF, LAJEADO, ROSAL, and MARTINÓPOLIS between 1998 and 1999
 
Also participating in the preparation of this Valuation Report:
 
 
Steve Guberer – Associate
 
n
Steve Guberer, Associate for Corporate Finance and Mergers and Acquisitions for Latin America, joined Deutsche Bank one year ago. His experience includes advisory for Fortress Investment Group and Centerbridge Partners in their US$8.9 billion buyout of Penn National Gaming Inc., announced in June 2007. Steve worked at Deloitte & Touche from 2000 until 2004. Steve received his MBA from the University of Chicago and his bachelor’s degree in accounting from Rutgers University

 
Hunter Kushner – Analyst
 
n
Hunter Kushner, Analyst for Corporate Finance and Mergers and Acquisitions for Latin America, joined Deutsche Bank in June 2006. Hunter has worked on the IPO of Klabin Segall in addition to other projects. Hunter has worked in the Investment Management Division at JPMorgan and at Moore Capital Management. He received his Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Yale University

 
Guilherme Gama – Analyst
 
n
Guilherme Gama, Analyst for Corporate Finance and Mergers and Acquisitions for Latin America, joined Deutsche Bank in 2005. His experience includes the initial public offering of Klabin Segall, the public offering of 2008 Notes by Sabesp, and the bond issuance of 10-year notes of US$140 million in value as well as the additional perpetual offering by Globo Comunicações. Prior to this, Guilherme was Financial Director and Junior Business Administrator for the Fundação Getulio Vargas, São Paulo, and in the period between 1999 and 2002, he was responsible for operations and technical and logistical assistance for Gran Coffee Com. Loc. Serv., a business in the sector of coffee serving systems
 
n
Other areas of the bank including the team for Mergers and Acquisitions, the group entitled Energy, Utilities, and Chemicals, and the group entitled Oil & Gas also contributed to this report

 
 8
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
Section 2

Valuation summary

 
 
 
 
 9
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
 

 
 
 
Tab A
 
Ultrapar

 
 
 
 10
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
Ultrapar Participações S.A.
 
 
Source: Public Ultrapar information
 
Company description

Ultrapar is a holding company for 3 separate operating companies: Oxiteno, Ultragaz, and Ultracargo

Major subsidiaries
 
Ultragaz Participações LTDA
 
-
Ultragaz is the leading distributor of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Brazil, and one of the largest distributors in the world by volume
 
-
Distributes bottled and bulk LPG to residential, commercial, and industrial clients in Brazil
 
-
2006 revenue of US$1.4 billion, and volume sold of 1.5 million tons
 
 
Oxiteno S.A.
 
-
A second-generation producer of commodity & specialty petrochemicals
 
-
Oxiteno is the largest producer of ethylene oxide and its main derivatives in Latin America
 
-
2006 revenue of US$707 million, and volume sold of 544,000 tons
 
 
Ultracargo Oper. Logísticas e Participações LTDA
 
-
Provides integrated logistics services for special products
 
-
2006 revenue of $103 million
 
-
Storage capacity at 2006 year end of 240 thousand cubic meters.
 
-
Traveled in 2006 approximately 43 million kilometers
Source: Public Ultrapar information
 
 
11
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
Ultrapar valuation
 
Prior to the share merger, Ultrapar’s share value ranges from R$64.48 to R$71.26 based on the economic value
 
Economic value (R$)
 
                   
Ultrapar TEV (before steps 1 and 2)
       
5,879
       
(+) net cash
            19          
Ultrapar Equity value (before steps 1 and 2)
            5,898          
(+) assets acquired (a)
            497          
(-) price paid(b)
            (876 )    
 
 
Ultrapar equity value (after steps 1 and 2)
            5,520          
Total number of shares (million)
            81.3          
Price per share – R$ per share
    64.48       67.87       71.26  
     
      
 
   
-5%
           
+5%
 
Note: Figures in R$ million unless otherwise noted.
(a)  refer to page 38 of the Valuation Report for more details
(b)  Net value to be paid by Ultrapar for steps 1 and 2, net of the value received from
       Dynamo for the sale of certain Ipiranga PN’s shares
Source: Ultrapar information and Deutsche Bank

Weighted average share price
LTM to announcement(a)
 
   
ON
 
 
PN
 
Total volume (000’s)
   
NA
     
17,108
 
W.A. share price (R$ per share)
   
NA
     
43.08
 
(a)  From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007
Note: Ultrapar’s ON shares have not traded for over 12 months.
Source: FactSet
 
Book value – Ultrapar
 
   
12/31/2006
 
Shareholder equity – (R$ million)
   
1,940.7
 
Total number of shares (million)
   
81.3
 
Book value per share (R$ per share)
   
23.86
 
Note: Book value based on operating company financials as of 12/31/2006
Source: Company’s filings
 
Weighted average share price
announcement to April 2, 2007(a)
 
   
ON
 
 
PN
 
Total volume (000’s)
   
NA
     
2,822
 
W.A. share price (R$ per share)
   
NA
     
56.10
 
(a)  From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007
 
Source: FactSet
 
12
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
Tab B

RIPI
 
13
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
Refinaria Petroleo Ipiranga SA – RIPI
 
 
Company description

RIPI is a holding company for certain Ipiranga investments and operates a refinery
 
Major subsidiaries
Companhia Brasileira de Petroleo Ipiranga (CBPI)
 
-
A fuels distributor in Brazil, except in Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and Amapá
 
-
2006 revenue of US$9.8 billion and volume sold of 12.2 billion cubic meters
 
Distrib. de Produtos de Petroleo Ipiranga (DPPI)
 
-
A fuels distributor in Southern Brazil
 
-
2006 revenue of $1.6 billion and volume sold of 1.8 billion cubic meters
 
Ipiranga Química (IQ)
 
-
A wholesale distributor of chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different markets
 
-
2006 revenue of US$212.3 million and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
 
-
Through its ownership in IQ, RIPI indirectly controls Copesul (with Braskem) and IPQ
 
Ipiranga Petroquímica (IPQ)
 
-
A 2nd generation producer of high-end petrochemicals
 
-
2006 revenue of US$924.3 million and volume sold of 636,100 tons
 
Copesul
 
-
A naphtha-based cracker owned by Ipiranga & Braskem
 
-
2006 revenue of US$2.9 billion and volume of 2.962 million tons
Note: Volume sold refers to total volume; Revenue figures not consolidated
Source: Public RIPI information
 

Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, bastos, and Ormazabal families
Source: Public Ipiranga information
 
14
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   

RIPI valuation
 
RIPI’s share value ranges from R$51.63 to R$57.06 based on the economic value 
 
Economic value
 
   
100%
   
Proportionate
       
(R$ million)
 
TEV
   
TEV    
       
IQ SA    
3,051
      58.53 %    
1,786
         
CBPI SA
   
4,029
      11.42 %    
460
         
DPPI SA
   
1,552
      7.65 %    
119
         
RIPI Opco1
   
9
      100.0 %    
9
         
RIPI – Total Enterprise Value
                   
2,373
         
(-) net debt
                    (765 )        
RIPI – Equity value
                   
1,609
         
Total number of shares (million)
                   
29.6
         
Price per share – R$ per share
           
51.63
     
54.35
     
57.06
 
             
        
 
              -5 %             +5 %
Note: Figures in R$ million unless otherwise noted.
(1)  Based on multiples detailed on pages 61 and 83
Source: RIPI information and Deutsche Bank
 
 
Weighted average share price
LTM to announcement(a)
 
   
ON
 
 
PN
 
Total volume (000’s)
 
1,843
   
5,850
 
W.A. share price (R$ per share)
 
45.81
   
32.75
 
(a)  From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007
               
Source: FactSet
               
 
Book value – RIPI SA  
 
   
12/31/2006
 
Shareholder equity – (R$ million)
   
577.3
 
Total number of shares (million)
   
29.6
 
Book value per share (R$ per share)
   
19.50
 
Note: Book value based on operating company financials as of 12/31/2006
Source: Company’s filings
 
Weighted average share price
announcement to April 2, 2007(a)
 
   
ON
   
PN
 
Total volume (000’s)
 
528
   
1,495
 
W.A. share price (R$ per share)
 
91.57
   
44.85
 
(a)  From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007
               
Source: FactSet
               
 
15
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
Tab C

DPPI
 
16
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
Distribuidora de Produtos de Petroleo Ipiranga SA – DPPI
 
 

Company description

DPPI is a distributor of fuels in Southern Brazil
 
The Company delivers fuels to retail gas stations, industrial sites
 
Approximately 65% of volume is sold to retail gas stations
 
In 2006, core volume (gasoline, alcohol, and diesel fuels) was 1.8 billion cubic meters. Total volume (including GNV, lubricants, & others) was marginally higher
 
In 2006, the Company had 2.5% of the Brazilian market by volume sold

Major subsidiaries
 
Isa-Sul Administração e Participações (Isa-Sul)
 
-
Owns 152 of the gas stations in DPPI’s region
 
-
2006 revenue of US$8.7 million and EBITDA of US$7.5 million
 
Companhia Brasileira de Petroleo Ipiranga (CBPI)
 
-
A fuels distributor in Brazil, except in Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and Amapá
 
-
2006 revenue of US$9.8 billion and volume sold of 12.2 billion cubic meters
 
-
Through its ownership in CBPI, DPPI indirectly owns a minority stake in IQ, IPQ, and Copesul
 
Ipiranga Química (IQ)
 
-
A wholesale distributor of chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different markets
 
-
2006 revenue of US$212.3 million and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
 
Ipiranga Petroquímica (IPQ)
 
-
A 2nd generation producer of high-end petrochemicals
 
-
2006 revenue of US$924.3 million and volume sold of 636,100 tons
 
Copesul
 
-
A naphtha-based cracker owned by Ipiranga & Braskem
 
-
2006 revenue of US$2.9 billion and volume of 2.962 million tons
Note: Volumes refer to volumes sold. Revenues are not consolidated
Source: Public DPPI information
 

Corporate structure

Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal families
Source: Public Ipiranga information
 
17
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
DPPI valuation
 
DPPI’s share value ranges from R$41.11 to R$45.44 based on the economic value
 
Economic value
 
   
100%
   
Proportionate
       
(R$ million)
 
TEV
   
TEV    
       
CBPI    
4,029
      21.01 %    
847
         
DPPI Opco1
   
706
      100.00 %    
706
         
DIPPI – Total Enterprise Value
                   
1,552
         
(-) net debt
                    (168 )        
DPPI – Equity value
                   
1,385
         
Total number of shares (million)
                   
32.0
         
Price per share – R$ per share
           
41.11
     
43.28
     
45.44
 
             
       
 
              -5 %             +5 %
Note: Figures in R$ million, except unless otherwise noted
(1)  Further details on page 83
 
Source: DPPI information and Deutsche Bank  
 
Weighted average share price
LTM to announcement(a)
 
   
ON
 
 
PN
 
Total volume (000’s)
   
24
     
2,919
 
W.A. share price (R$ per share)
   
41.69
     
24.99
 
(a)  From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007
               
Source: FactSet
               
 
Book value – DPPI SA  
 
   
12/31/2006
 
Shareholder equity – (R$ million)
   
804.0
 
Total number of shares (million)
   
32.0
 
Book value per share (R$ per share)
   
25.13
 
Note: Book value based on operating company financials as of 12/31/2006
Source: Company’s filings
 
Weighted average share price
announcement to April 2, 2007(a)
 
   
ON
   
PN
 
Total volume (000’s)
 
61
   
514
 
W.A. share price (R$ per share)
 
96.53
   
34.69
 
(a)  From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007
               
Source: FactSet
               
 
18
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
Tab D

CBPI

19
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
Companhia Brasileira de Petroleo Ipiranga – CBPI
 
 
Company description

The largest company in the Ipiranga Group by revenue, CBPI is a distributor of fuels in Brazil, except in Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and Amapá
The Company delivers fuels to retail gas stations, industrial sites
Approximately 65% of volume is sold to retail gas stations
In 2006, core volume (gasoline, alcohol, and diesel fuels) was 11.6 billion cubic meters. Total volume (including GNV, lubricants, & others) was 12.2 billion cubic meters
In 2006, the Company had 16.9% share of the Brazilian market by volume

Major subsidiaries
Empresa Carioca de Produtos Químicos (EMCA)
 
-
Produces specialty oils with applications in the pharmaceutical, food, cosmetic, and plastics industries
 
-
2006 revenue of US$42.5 million and EBITDA of US$1.4 million
Ipiranga Asfaltos (IASA)
 
-
Produces asphalt and asphalt additives, and provides pavement services
 
-
2006 sales of US$114.3 million and EBITDA of US$6.1 million
AM/PM Comestíveis
 
-
A chain of retail convenience stores attached to CBPI gas stations
 
-
2006 sales of US$8.4 million and EBITDA of US$14.7 million, which includes other operating income
Ipiranga Química SA (IQ)
 
-
A wholesale distributor of chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different markets
 
-
2006 revenue of US$212.3 million and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
 
-
Through its ownership in IQ, CBPI, indirectly has a stake in IPQ and Copesul
Ipiranga Petroquímica (IPQ)
 
-
A 2nd generation producer of high-end petrochemicals
 
-
2006 revenue of US$924.3 million and volume sold of 636,100 tons
 
Copesul
 
-
A naphtha-based cracker owned by Ipiranga & Braskem
 
-
2006 revenue of US$2.9 billion and volume of 2.962 million tons
Source: Public CBPI information
 

Corporate structure

Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal families
 
20
 

 
Valuation summary
Section 2
   
 
CBPI valuation

CBPI’s share value ranges from R$26.97 to R$29.81 based on the economic value
 
   
 

                   Economic value                                          Book value - CBPI
                   --------------                                          -----------------
(R$ million)  100%        Proportionate                                                     12/31/2006
              TEV         TEV                                                               ----------
Copesul       5,635       29.46% 1,660 (1)              Shareholder equity - (R$ million)      1,555.2
IPQ Opco      1,452      100.00% 1,452 (2)              Total number of shares (million)         106.0
100% IPQ SA.                     3,112 (3)=(1)+(2)      Book value per share (R$ per share)       14.68
IPQ SA.       3,112       92.39% 2,875 (4)=(3)x stake
IQ Opco         176      100.00%   176 (5)
100% IQ SA                       3,051 (6)=(4)+(5)
IQ SA         3,051       41.47% 1,265 (7)=(6)x stake
CBPI Opco     2,764      100.00% 2,764 (8)
CBPI - Total Enterprise Value             4,029 (9)=(7)+(8)
(-) net debt                             (1,021)
CBPI - Equity Value                       3,008
Total number of shares (million)          106.0
Price per share - R$ per share     26.97   28.39 29.81
                                    -----------------
                                   -5%               +5%
Note: Figures in R$ million, except unless otherwise noted  Note: Book value based on operating company financials
Source: Ipiranga information and Deutsche Bank                    as of 12/31/2006
                                                            Source: Company's filings

               Weighted average share price                           Weighted average share price
                  LTM to announcement (a)                           announcement to April 2, 2007 (a)
-----------------------------------------------------  ----------------------------------------------------
                                     ON       PN                                            ON       PN
                                   ======= =========                                      ======= =========
Total volume (000's)                  123     62.524   Total volume (000's)                   168     7,946
W.A. share price (R$ per share)     21.72      18.32   W.A. share price (R$ per share)      52.55     23.28
(a) From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007                      (a) From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007
Source: FactSet                                        Source: FactSet
 
21
 

 
 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   

 
 

 
Section 3
 
Economic value of assets
 
 
 

22


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   


Valuation considerations

The companies were valued on a stand-alone basis
 
The valuation of each asset excludes any potential synergies that could be achieved as a result of the transaction
 

DCF
 n  Basic assumptions
     10-year projections
   –  Base date of DCF valuation is December 31, 2006
   –  Exchange rate of 2.1385 R$/US$ as of 12/31/2006
   –  Models projected in nominal Brazilian Reais; cash flows were converted to US Dollars based on average exchange rate for the year
   –  WACC in nominal US Dollars
   –  To discount the annual cash flow to the present value, it considers that cash flow is generated in the middle of the year (in June)1
 n  Perpetuity
   –  Calculated based on Gordon’s growth formula
   –  Adjustments to capex/ depreciation, tax rates, net operating working capital
   –  Petrochemical companies: perpetuity cash flow adjusted for mid-cycle
 n  Equity value
   –  TEV minus net debt (as defined in the glossary)
     
DCF valuation
 
n
Companhia Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga
n
Distribuidora de Prod. de Petróleo Ipiranga
n
Copesul Central Química
n
Ipiranga Petroquímica S.A.
n
Ultrapar Participações
 Source: Ultrapar and Deutsche Bank
 
Multiples
 n  Basic assumptions
   –  Based on multiples of EBITDA
 n  Precedent transactions
   –  Applied to LTM EBITDA
 n  Trading comparables
   –  Applied to 2006 EBITDA except for petrochemicals, where an average of 3 - 5 years (normalized EBITDA) was used depending on the company
     
Multiple -based valuation
 
n
Ipiranga Química S.A. – precedent transactions
n
Empresa Carioca de Prod. Químicos S.A. – trading comps
n
Ipiranga Asfaltos – precedent transactions
n
AM/PM Comestíveis – trading comps
n
Isa-Sul Adm. e Part. Ltda – implied multiple from DPPI DCF
 Source: Ultrapar and Deutsche Bank
1 Assumes that the cash is generated evenly over the year, and for the purpose of discounting it to the net present value, it assumes the generation of cash occurs in the middle of the year (i.e. June), and not at the end of the year (i.e. December)

23


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   


Weighted Average Cost of Capital and Cost of Equity
WACC and Ke
 

WACC definition

 
 
(US$ nominal)
     
Ipiranga companies
 
Ultrapar
 
CBPI
 
DPPI 
 
Copesul 
 
 IPQ
I. Beta calculation                  
1. Beta un-levered (a)
0.64
 
0.90
 
0.90
 
 0.86
 
0.86
Long-term optimal debt (D)/cap (D+E) ratio
35% (b)
 
40% (c)
 
 40% (c)
 
50% (c)
 
50% (c)
Long-term optimal equity (E) /cap (D+E) ratio
65% (b)
 
60% (c)
 
 60% (c)
 
50% (c)
 
50% (c)
Marginal tax rate (tax)(d)
22%
 
26%
 
 23%
 
33%
 
25%
2. Re-levered equity beta (β)
0.92
 
1.35
 
 1.36
 
 1.44
 
1.50
II. Calculation of Cost of Capital
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
US risk free rate (Rfr) (e)
4.5% p.a.
 
4.5% p.a.
 
 4.5% p.a.
 
 4.5% p.a.
 
4.5% p.a.
Local risk premium (CRP) (f)
200 bps
 
200 bps
 
 200 bps
 
 200 bps
 
200 bps
Local long-term risk free rate
6.5% p.a.
 
6.5% p.a.
 
 6.5% p.a.
 
 6.5% p.a.
 
6.5% p.a.
US equity risk premium (ERP) (g)
7.1% p.a.
 
7.1% p.a.
 
 7.1% p.a.
 
 7.1% p.a.
 
7.1% p.a.
3. Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.0% p.a.
 
16.1% p.a.
 
16.2% p.a.
 
 16.7% p.a.
 
17.2 p.a.%
Local long-term risk free rate
6.5% p.a.
 
6.5% p.a.
 
6.5% p.a.
 
 6.5% p.a.
 
6.5% p.a.
Long-term corporate risk spread (h)
150 bps
 
200 bps
 
200 bps
 
 200 bps
 
200 bps
4. Cost of Debt (Kd)
8.0% p.a.
 
8.50% p.a.
 
8.50% p.a.
 
 8.50% p.a.
 
8.50% p.a.
5. WACC
10.6% p.a.
 
12.2% p.a.
 
12.3% p.a.
 
 11.2% p.a.
 
11.8% p.a.
                   
Note:
(a) Ultrapar’s beta is the observed and the betas for Grupo Ipiranga’s companies are the betas against the S&P 500 for the sample of companies that represent each industry. Based on 2 years of weekly betas. CBPI and DPPI’s betas were based on Pantry Inc, Casey’s General Stores, and Alimentacion Couche Tard Inc.2 Copesul and IPQ’s betas were based on Copesul, Braskem, Suzano Petroquímica, Petroquímica União, BASF and Nova Chemicals (source: Bloomberg as of February 18, 2007)
 
(b) Based on a more conservative company risk profile than the optimal capital structure for the industry
 
(c) Based on comparable public companies
 
(d) Marginal tax rates as provided by the management of the companies. Refer to supporting material in Appendix IV
 
(e) US risk free rate is the yield of the US Treasury (source: FactSet)
 
(f) Local risk premium based on spread of the sovereign bond to the equivalent US Treasury (source: Bloomberg)
 
(g) Equity risk premium from Ibbotson’s 2006 report
 
(h) Long term corporate risk spreads are based on companies outstanding debt (source: the companies’ financials)
Source: Bloomberg, Factset and the companies
 
2        Pantry Inc., Casey’s General Stores, and Alimentation Couche Tard Inc. are businesses whose principal activities include the distribution of gasoline (77%, 71%, and 58% of 2006 sales respectively). The operation of convenience stores is a secondary activity totally dependent on the distribution of gasoline
 
24


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   


Macroeconomic assumptions
 

US Economy
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007E
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Inflation(1)
1.6%
2.6%
2.3%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
US Treasury(1)
4.1%
4.1%
4.7%
4.5%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%

Brazil Economy
 2004A
2005A
2006A
2007E
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
GDP - real growth(2)
4.9%
2.3%
2.9%
3.5%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
GDP - nominal growth
12.8%
9.7%
6.1%
7.4%
7.8%
7.2%
7.0%
6.9%
6.7%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
Brazilian population growth(3)
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
Inflation (IPCA)(1)
7.6%
5.7%
3.1%
3.8%
4.0%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
                           
Selic (average)(4)
16.2%
19.0%
15.1%
12.2%
11.1%
10.0%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
CDI (Brazilian interbank rate)(1)
16.2%
19.0%
15.0%
12.7%
11.6%
10.5%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
                           
FX rate - eop(5)
2.65
2.34
2.14
2.18
2.29
2.32
2.36
2.39
2.43
2.46
2.50
2.54
2.57
FX rate - avg(5)
2.93
2.43
2.19
2.16
2.24
2.31
2.34
2.38
2.41
2.45
2.48
2.52
2.56
Average R$ devaluation
 
(20.3%)
(9.9%)
(1.5%)
3.7%
3.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
 
Notes and Sources:
(1) Based on estimates of the market and Deutsche Bank
(2) Based on IBGE’s old methodology3. Source: IBGE for 2004 to 2006, and based on estimates of the market and Deutsche Bank for 2007 and onwards
(3) IBGE – Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
(4) Market consensus for 2007 and 2008 (source: BCB, February 2007) and based on estimates of the market and Deutsche Bank for 2009 and onwards
(5) Market consensus for 2007 and 2008 (source: BCB, February 2007). Brazil – USA purchase power parity (PPP) for 2009 onwards
 
3IBGE had recently published the parameters of a new methodology for the calculation of Brazilian GDP, however at the time of publication of the Report, projections based on the new methodology were not available. We therefore consider it most appropriate to use the old methodology, based on which projections were available.

 
25


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   


 

 

Tab A
 
Ultrapar
 
 
 
 
 


26


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   



Ultrapar consolidated - DCF valuation

Ultrapar consolidates: Ultragaz, the #1 LPG distributor in Brazil, Oxiteno, the main producer of Ethylene Oxide and its main derivatives in Latin America, and Ultracargo, a logistic company for special products
 

   
2007E
 
2008E
 
2009E
 
2010E
 
2011E
 
2012E
 
2013E
 
2014E
 
2015E
 
2016E
 
Perp.
1. EBIT
 
157
 
163
 
218
 
239
 
249
 
251
 
257
 
286
 
297
 
347
 
364
annual growth
 
n.a.
 
4.1%
 
33.2%
 
9.7%
 
4.4%
 
0.6%
 
2.4%
 
11.3%
 
3.9%
 
16.8%
 
5.0%
           
 
                               
(-) tax
 
(37)
 
(38)
 
(47)
 
(51)
 
(53)
 
(54)
 
(56)
 
(64)
 
(67)
 
(77)
 
(80)
effective tax rate
 
(23.4%)
 
(23.5%)
 
(21.6%)
 
(21.3%)
 
(21.1%)
 
(21.5%)
 
(21.7%)
 
(22.4%)
 
(22.6%)
 
(22.1%)
 
(22.1%)
               
 
             
 
           
3. EBIT (-) tax
 
120
 
125
 
171
 
188
 
197
 
197
 
201
 
222
 
230
 
270
 
284
(+) Depreciation & Amortization
 
93
 
103
 
111
 
119
 
127
 
131
 
134
 
116
 
119
 
87
 
87
(-) Capex
 
(253)
 
(154)
 
(103)
 
(96)
 
(99)
 
(101)
 
(104)
 
(106)
 
(100)
 
(98)
 
(87)
(-) Changes in net operating working capital
 
(7)
 
(19)
 
(50)
 
(21)
 
(19)
 
(17)
 
(16)
 
(13)
 
(11)
 
(11)
 
(11)
                   
 
                       
4. Free cash flow to the Firm
 
(47)
 
56
 
129
 
190
 
206
 
209
 
215
 
218
 
238
 
248
 
272
annual growth
 
n.a 
 
n.m 
 
130.4%
 
47.8%
 
8.3%
 
1.5%
 
3.0%
 
1.5%
 
9.0%
 
4.0%
 
n.m
 
Note:    Annual free cash flow in US$ millions
Effective tax rate based on the effective tax rates of Ultragaz, Oxiteno, and Ultracargo
Perpetuity’s cash flow is based on long-term real growth of 3% corresponding to long-term expectations for GDP growth. These assumptions were evaluated in due diligence sessions confirmed by management of the businesses and are considered consistent with long-term growth expectations in each sector
Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance

 

TEV (R$ million)
(R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model)
(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity
value calculated in US$

TEV/ 2007 EBITDA
(R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model)
(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity
value calculated in US$
 
27


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   


Assumptions - Ultragaz
Selected income statement drivers

Bottled LPG volumes are driven by population growth, while Bulk sales are driven by GDP growth

 
Cash gross margins per ton are constant in real terms adjusted for Brazilian inflation
 
 
Note: Excludes depreciation
Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance
 
28


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   


Assumptions - Ultragaz (continued)
Selected income statement drivers

Revenues are driven by increasing volumes and are adjusted for inflation
 
 

Selling expenses are constant as a percentage of sales, while General and Administrative expenses are adjusted for inflation
 
 
 
29


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   



Assumptions - Ultragaz (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers

Capex/ton is based on sales volumes and adjusted for inflation
 
 
 
Based on property, plant and equipment depreciation schedule
 

 
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006
 
Change in net operating working capital
Net operating working capital (R$ million)   
2005A
 
2006A
 
2007E
 
2008E
 
2009E
 
2010E
 
2011E
 
2012E
 
2013E
 
2014E
 
2015E
 
2016E
Net operating working capital
 
150.2
 
126.4
 
133.5
 
141.9
 
150.0
 
158.5
 
167.4
 
176.6
 
186.2
 
196.3
 
207.0
 
218.2
(+) current assets
 
216
 
203
 
215
 
228
 
241
 
255
 
269
 
284
 
299
 
316
 
333
 
351
(-) current liabilities
 
(65)
 
(77)
 
(81)
 
(87)
 
(91)
 
(97)
 
(102)
 
(107)
 
(113)
 
(119)
 
(126)
 
(132)
                                             
Change in net operating working capital
                                           
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital
 
(7)
 
(8)
 
(8)
 
(8)
 
(9)
 
(9)
 
(10)
 
(10)
 
(11)
 
(11)
Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance
 
 
30


Economic value of assets
Section 3
   



Assumptions - Oxiteno
Selected income statement drivers
 
 
Oxiteno is currently in the process of increasing its capacity (expected to be fully operational in 2009)
 
Oxiteno’s strategy is to meet Brazil’s demand for specialties (expected to grow twice as fast as GDP)
 


Specialties prices are constant in US Dollars and commodities prices are based on CMAI projections in US Dollars

 
 
31




 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
Assumptions - Oxiteno (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
 
Revenue forecast reflects the capacity expansion and change in production mix
 
Sales are expected to shift over-time from commodities to specialties and from exports to the domestic market
 
The production shift to specialties diminishes the cyclicality of the EBITDA margin
 
 
32
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 
Assumptions - Oxiteno (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers

Capex is based on Ultrapar guidance relating to the capacity increase

Based on property, plant and equipment depreciation schedule

Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006
 
Change in net operating working capital
Net operating working capital (R$ million)
   
2005A
   
2006A
   
2007E
   
2008E
   
2009E
   
2010E
   
2011E
   
2012E
   
2013E
   
2014E
   
2015E
   
2016E
 
Net operating working capital
   
259.5
   
361.2
   
368.0
   
400.0
   
504.5
   
543.7
   
580.0
   
611.8
   
641.0
   
661.7
   
677.3
   
694.2
 
(+) current assets
   
352
   
468
   
478
   
520
   
651
   
700
   
747
   
791
   
830
   
858
   
878
   
898
 
(-) current liabilities
   
(92
)
 
(107
)
 
(110
)
 
(120
)
 
(147
)
 
(157
)
 
(167
)
 
(179
)
 
(189
)
 
(196
)
 
(200
)
 
(204
)
Change in net operating working capital
                                                                   
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital
               
(7
)
 
(32
)
 
(105
)
 
(39
)
 
(36
)
 
(32
)
 
(29
)
 
(21
)
 
(16
)
 
(17
)
Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance
 
4 Relevant investment projects of the Oxiteno subsidiary are: expansion of the production capacity of ethylene oxide and specialty chemicals at Camaçari, Bahia; a new plant for fatty alcohols and derivatives at Camaçari, Bahia; and the expansion of production capacity of ethylene oxide and specialty chemicals at Mauá, São Paulo, as announced to the market through Ultrapar’s press releases dated August 17, 2006, and February 16, 2005

 
 
33
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 
Assumptions - Ultracargo
Selected income statement drivers

Storage capacity utilized increasing from 78% as of 2007 to 95% as of 2010 based on Ultracargo guidance
 
Transportation capacity utilized increasing from 84% as of 2007 to 95% as of 2010
 
 
 
 
34


 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 
Assumptions - Ultracargo (continued)
Selected income statement drivers

Revenues increase as a result of volume growth and price inflation
 
 
 
35
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 

Assumptions - Ultracargo (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers

Capacity increase between 2004 and 2006
 

Based on property, plant and equipment depreciation schedule

Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006
 
Change in net operating working capital
Net operating working capital (R$ million)     2005A     2006A     2007E     2008E     2009E     2010E     2011E     2012E     2013E     2014E     2015E     2016E  
Net operating working capital
   
14.0
   
16.1
   
17.7
   
19.4
   
21.1
   
22.9
   
23.9
   
24.9
   
26.0
   
27.1
   
28.2
   
29.5
 
(+) current assets
   
33
   
35
   
38
   
42
   
46
   
50
   
52
   
54
   
57
   
59
   
62
   
64
 
(-) current liabilities
   
(19
)
 
(19
)
 
(20
)
 
(23
)
 
(25
)
 
(27
)
 
(28
)
 
(29
)
 
(31
)
 
(32
)
 
(33
)
 
(35
)
Change in net operating working capital
                                                                         
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital
               
(2
)
 
(2
)
 
(2
)
 
(2
)
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance
 
36
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 

 
Tab B
Ultrapar prior to the share merger

 
 
37
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 


Ultrapar prior to the share merger

After completing the acquisition of the control block (step 1) and tendering for the other voting shareholders (step 2), Ultrapar will have acquired 41.3% of RIPI, 35.4% of DPPI, and 4.1% of CBPI
 
Ultrapar will spend R$876 million on steps 1 and 2
 

 

 

o After completing steps 1 and 2, Ultrapar will have acquired 41.3%
  of RIPI, 35.4% of DPPI, and 4.1% of CBPI
o Ultrapar will spend R$876 million on steps 1 and 2
o These stakes are equivalent to 41.3% of the refinery, 38.5% of the
  distribution business of DPPI, and 16.9% of the distribution
  business of CBPI

                Stake      Stake
Ipiranga SA    at S.A.    at Opco
-----------    -------    -------
RIPI SA         41.3%      41.3%     Refinery
DPPI SA         35.4%      38.5%     DPPI
                                     distribution
                                     CBPI
CBPI SA          4.1%      16.9%     distribution


(R$ million)                      TEV (5)  Equity
Assets acquired by Ultrapar       591      497
------------------------------------------------------
Refinery          (1)     41,3%     1        (10)
DPPI                      38,5%   272        290
distribution      (2)
CBPI                      16,9%   315        217
distribution      (3)
CBPI EMCA         (4)     16,9%     3          0

(1) Includes 1/3 of the Refinery only
(2) Includes ISA-Sul
(3) Includes CBPI distribution and the AM/PM
    convenience stores in the South and Southeast
(3) Assumes that Petrobras will pay with cash for 100%
    of its stake and will assume no debt from CBPI
(4) EMCA will be 100% owned by Ultrapar
(5) Represents Ultrapar's stake in the acquired assets
 
38
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 
 
 
 
Tab C
 
Fuel distribution - CBPI


 
39
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
CBPI distribution – DCF valuation
 
CBPI: A fuel distributor operating in Brazil, except Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and Amapa
 
In addition to the distribution business, CBPI also consolidates AM/PM, IASA, and EMCA totaling R$2.7 billion TEV (refer to page 61)

    2007E     2008E     2009E     2010E     2011E     2012E     2013E     2014E     2015E     2016E    
Perp.
 
1. EBIT
   
90
     
106
     
122
     
142
     
164
     
251
     
268
     
298
     
340
     
361
     
379
 
annual growth
   
n.a.
      18.3 %     14.7 %     16.5 %     15.7 %     52.6 %     6.9 %     11.0 %     14.1 %     6.3 %     5.1 %
                                                                                         
(-) tax
    (23 )     (27 )     (31 )     (36 )     (42 )     (64 )     (69 )     (76 )     (87 )     (93 )     (97 )
effective tax rate
    (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)     (25.6 %)
                                                                                         
3. EBIT (-) tax
   
67
     
79
     
91
     
106
     
122
     
187
     
200
     
222
     
253
     
269
     
282
 
(+) Depreciation & Amortization
   
41
     
47
     
52
     
60
     
69
     
78
     
86
     
84
     
73
     
84
     
83
 
(-) Capex, net of reimbursement
    (74 )     (63 )     (91 )     (116 )     (134 )     (98 )     (105 )     (127 )     (144 )     (137 )     (130 )
(-) Changes in net operating working capital
    (8 )     (46 )     (55 )     (58 )     (61 )     (37 )     (50 )     (51 )     (52 )     (59 )     (61 )
                                                                                         
4. Free cash flow to the Firm
   
27
     
17
      (3 )     (8 )     (4 )    
130
     
131
     
128
     
130
     
156
     
174
 
annual growth
   
n.a.
      (37.9 %)     (120.4 %)     125.6 %     (43.1 %)    
n.a.
      0.4 %     (1.8 %)     1.1 %     20.1 %     n.m.  
                                                                                         
Note:    Annual free cash flow in US$ millions
Cash flow in perpetuity reflects a 3% growth in sales volume compared to 2016 in line with GDP’s 3% long-term expected real growth. These assumptions were evaluated in due diligence sessions confirmed by management of the businesses and consistent with expectations of long-term growth in each sector
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management                                          
 
 

TEV (R$ million)
(R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model)

(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity
value calculated in US$

TEV/ 2007 EBITDA
(R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model)

(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity
value calculated in US$
 
40
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – CBPI distribution
Selected income statement drivers
 
Gas and alcohol volumes in the Brazilian market were forecasted based on a regression on number of cars in Brazil as a function of GDP per capita, and consumption per car
 
Diesel volumes in the Brazilian market were projected as a result of a regression on diesel volumes in Brazil on GDP growth
 
Assumes the weighted average contribution margin of gasoline and ethanol is constant in
real Reais
 
 
5 CBPI has the objective of increasing its market share, which is deemed feasible by its management. This assumption was verified in a confirmatory due diligence session, and corroborated by the fact that CBPI gained 2 (two) percentage points of market share between 2001 and 2005, according to the National Petroleum Agency, ANP. However, the market consultant indicated that in order to gain 2 (two) percentage points market share in the coming years, it would demand stronger capex and higher marketing expenses to support this growth. It is expected that CBPI’s market share will stabilize at 18.9% after 2012, when CBPI sales will grow at the market pace, around 8% per year. A scenario in which sales would grow above this pace and therefore resulting in further market share increase would demand significant investments and is inconsistent with the expected increasing competition in the long term, considering a market dominated by 5 main players (which now control about 70% of the market) and numerous other players
 
41
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – CBPI distribution (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
 
Revenue increases driven by market share and gross margin per product increases
 
 
EBITDA margins in 2008-2011 are affected by selling expenses relating to market share growth, stabilized from 2012-2016
 
 
 
42
 

 
Economic value of underlying assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – CBPI distribution (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
 
CBPI will increase the number of stations in its network by approximately 3.2% per year as a result of increased volumes of fuel and the increase in market share by 200 basis points
 
 
Selling expenses increase in 2007 through 2011 due to CBPI’s strategy to increase market share
 
 
 
43
 

 
Economic value of underlying assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – CBPI distribution (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers
 
CAPEX based on number of new stores needed to increase market share as well as for renovating existing stations
 
 
Based on property, plant and equipment depreciation schedule
 
 
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006
 
Change in net operating working capital
 
Net operating working capital (R$ million)
       
2005A
   
2006A
   
2007E
   
2008E
   
2009E
   
2010E
   
2011E
   
2012E
   
2013E
   
2014E
   
2015E
   
2016E
 
                                                                               
Net operating working capital  
     
671
     
872
     
889
     
992
     
1,119
     
1,253
     
1,399
     
1,487
     
1,608
     
1,734
     
1,863
     
2,015
 
(+) current assets  
     
1,342
     
1,491
     
1,681
     
1,882
     
2,126
     
2,386
     
2,668
     
2,888
     
3,123
     
3,377
     
3,651
     
3,947
 
(-) current liabilities  
     
671
     
618
     
792
     
890
     
1,007
     
1,133
     
1,270
     
1,401
     
1,515
     
1,644
     
1,788
     
1,931
 
                                                                                                         
Change in net operating working capital   
                                                                                                 
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital   
                      (17 )     (103 )     (127 )     (135 )     (145 )     (88 )     (122 )     (125 )     (130 )     (152 )
Source: Based on company information and an external consultant - José Magro, confirmed by Ipiranga management
 
44
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Tab D
 
Fuel distribution - DPPI
 
45
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
DPPI distribution – DCF Valuation
 
DPPI: A fuel distributor operating in 2 states in the South of Brazil
 
Isa-Sul, a wholly owned subsidiary of DPPI, owns 152 gas stations in DPPI’s region. Isa-Sul is valued based on DPPI’s TEV multiple of 2006 EBITDA
 
Based on 2006 figures, Isa-Sul is valued at R$140 million (refer to pages 61 and 83)  
 
DPPI opco including Isa-Sul is valued at R$706 million, or US$330 million (R$566 million related to DPPI ex-Isa Sul plus R$140 million related to Isa-Sul)
 

   
2007E
   
2008E
   
2009E
   
2010E
   
2011E
   
2012E
   
2013E
   
2014E
   
2015E
   
2016E
   
Perp.
 
1. EBIT
   
29
     
34
     
35
     
37
     
39
     
41
     
44
     
48
     
55
     
58
     
63
 
annual growth
   
n.a.
      14.3 %     4.5 %     6.5 %     4.6 %     5.3 %     5.5 %     11.2 %     13.6 %     4.8 %     9.2 %
                                                                                         
(-) tax
    (7 )     (8 )     (8 )     (9 )     (9 )     (9 )     (10 )     (11 )     (13 )     (13 )     (14 )
effective tax rate
    (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)     (22.8 %)
                                                                                         
3. EBIT (-) tax
   
23
     
26
     
27
     
29
     
30
     
32
     
34
     
37
     
42
     
44
     
49
 
(+) Depreciation & Amortization
   
8
     
9
     
10
     
10
     
11
     
12
     
13
     
11
     
8
     
9
     
19
 
(-) Capex
    (15 )     (8 )     (6 )     (11 )     (8 )     (13 )     (12 )     (12 )     (12 )     (9 )     (19 )
(-) Changes in net operating working capital
    (12 )     (13 )     (13 )     (12 )     (10 )     (11 )     (11 )     (12 )     (12 )     (13 )     (14 )
                                                                                         
4. Free cash flow to the Firm
   
5
     
14
     
18
     
17
     
23
     
20
     
23
     
25
     
27
     
31
     
35
 
annual growth
   
n.a.
      199.4 %     28.0 %     (6.2 %)     38.7 %     (12.7 %)     14.0 %     6.4 %     7.7 %     18.4 %     n.m.  
Note:     
Annual free cash flow in US$ millions
Cash flow in perpetuity reflects a 3% growth in sales volume compared to 2016 in line with GDP’s 3% long-term expected real growth. These assumptions were evaluated in due diligence sessions confirmed by management of the businesses and consistent with expectations of long-term growth in each sector
Source: 
Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management
 
 

TEV (R$ million)
(R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model)

(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity
value calculated in US$

TEV/ 2007 EBITDA
(R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model)

(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity
value calculated in US$
 
46
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – DPPI distribution
Selected income statement drivers
 
Gas and alcohol volumes in the Brazilian market were forecasted based on a regression on number of cars in Brazil as a function of GDP per capita, and consumption per car

Diesel volumes in the Brazilian market were projected as a result of a regression on diesel volumes in Brazil on GDP growth 
 
 
Given its leadership in the region, DPPI presents little market share fluctuation
 
DPPI’s market share remains approximately constant because DPPI is a leader in the region in which it operates – Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina – with an already high 35% (thirty-five percent) market share. Nationally, DPPI reduced its market share from 2.9% in 2001 to 2.6% in 2005 according to the National Petroleum Agency – ANP. As per the recommendation of the market consultant, which was validated on confirmatory due diligence session with DPPI’s management, DPPI would tend to maintain its market share given DPPI’s dominant position in the region, or even lose some market participation to competition in line with the company’s recent performance.
 
47
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – DPPI distribution (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
 
Revenues driven by volumes and contribution margin per product
 
 
Projected EBITDA margin is expected to improve in relation to 2006
 
 
 
48
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – DPPI distribution
Selected balance sheet drivers
 
CAPEX based on the number of new stores needed to increase market share as well as for renovating existing stations
 
 
Based on propery, plant and equipment depreciation schedule
 
 
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006

Change in net operating working capital
 
Net operating working capital (R$ million) 
    2005A     2006A     2007E     2008E     2009E     2010E     2011E     2012E     2013E     2014E     2015E     2016E  
Net operating working capital  
     
145
     
255
     
280
     
310
     
340
     
368
     
392
     
417
     
445
     
475
     
506
     
539
 
(+) current assets  
     
232
     
310
     
338
     
375
     
412
     
446
     
474
     
505
     
539
     
575
     
613
     
653
 
(-) current liabilities  
     
87
     
55
     
59
     
65
     
71
     
77
     
82
     
88
     
93
     
100
     
107
     
114
 
                                                                                                         
Change in net operating working capital   
                                                                                                 
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital   
                      (25 )     (30 )     (31 )     (28 )     (23 )     (26 )     (28 )     (29 )     (31 )     (33 )
 
Source:
Based on company information and an external consultant - José Magro, confirmed by Ipiranga management
 
 
 
49
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Tab E
 
Copesul
 
 

50
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Copesul – DCF valuation
 
Copesul is a naphtha-based cracker jointly controlled by Ipiranga (29.5%) and Braskem (29.5%)
 
2006 production consisted of 39% ethylene, 20% propylene, 10% benzene, and 31% other by-products
 
   
2007E
   
2008E
   
2009E
   
2010E
   
2011E
   
2012E
   
2013E
   
2014E
   
2015E
   
2016E
   
Perp.
 
1. EBIT
   
402
     
294
     
273
     
228
     
231
     
315
     
365
     
454
     
521
     
488
     
374
 
annual growth
    (3.6 %)     (26.9 %)     (6.9 %)     (16.5 %)     1.1 %     36.6 %     15.6 %     24.6 %     14.6 %     (6.4 %)     2.0 %
                                                                                         
(-) tax
    (132 )     (96 )     (90 )     (75 )     (76 )     (103 )     (119 )     (149 )     (171 )     (160 )     (122 )
effective tax rate
    (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)     (32.8 %)
                                                                                         
3. EBIT (-) tax
   
270
     
198
     
184
     
154
     
155
     
212
     
245
     
306
     
350
     
328
     
251
 
(+) Depreciation & Amortization
   
109
     
107
     
105
     
105
     
45
     
8
     
9
     
11
     
12
     
13
     
31
 
(-) Capex
    (26 )     (26 )     (27 )     (27 )     (28 )     (28 )     (29 )     (29 )     (30 )     (30 )     (31 )
(-) Changes in net operating working capital
   
24
     
41
     
4
     
17
      (5 )     (42 )     (26 )     (45 )     (35 )    
10
     
0
 
                                                                                         
4. Free cash flow to the Firm
   
378
     
319
     
266
     
248
     
169
     
150
     
199
     
242
     
297
     
321
     
251
 
      annual growth
   
n.a.
      (15.5 %)     (16.6 %)     (6.6 %)     (32.2 %)     (11.2 %)     33.1 %     21.3 %     23.0 %     7.9 %     n.m.  
Note:     
Annual free cash flow in US$ millions
Source: 
Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management
 
 

TEV (R$ million)
----------------
(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present
    value and perpetuity value calculated in US$
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga
management

TEV/Normalized EBITDA
---------------------
Note: EBITDA normalized for the industry cycle
(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present
    value and perpetuity value calculated in US$
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga
management
 
51
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – Copesul
Selected income statement drivers
 
Volumes remain constant at 2006 levels
 
 
Gross margin was driven by ethylene, propylene, and benzene cash spreads based on CMAI data adjusted for Brazil
 
 
 
 
52
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – Copesul (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
 
Revenues projected as a constant spread to gross margin
 
 
EBITDA margins reflect the ethylene business cycle, based on CMAI data
 
 
 
53
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Assumptions – Copesul (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers
 
Maintenance CAPEX projected based on company, information confirmed by management
 
 
Based on property, plant and equipment depreciation schedule
 
 
 
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006

Change in net operating working capital
 
Net operating working capital (R$ million)     
2005A
   
2006A
   
2007E
   
2008E
   
2009E
   
2010E
   
2011E
   
2012E
   
2013E
   
2014E
   
2015E
   
2016E
 
Net operating working capital  
     
459
     
557
     
506
     
414
     
406
     
366
     
377
     
478
     
543
     
655
     
744
     
719
 
(+) current assets  
     
795
     
1,061
     
982
     
795
     
776
     
694
     
714
     
917
     
1,046
     
1,272
     
1,450
     
1,398
 
(-) current liabilities  
     
336
     
504
     
476
     
380
     
370
     
328
     
337
     
439
     
503
     
617
     
706
     
678
 
                                                                                                         
Change in net operating working capital   
                                                                                                 
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital   
                     
51
     
92
     
8
     
40
      (11 )     (101 )     (65 )     (112 )     (89 )    
25
 
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management
 
 
54
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
 
Tab F
 
IPQ
 
 

55
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
   
IPQ - DCF valuation
 
IPQ is a 2nd generation producer of high-end petrochemicals

In 2006, volume sold reached 638,000 tons 
         
 
 
 
2007E
   
2008E
   
2009E
   
2010E
   
2011E
   
2012E
   
2013E
   
2014E
   
2015E
   
2016E
   
Perp.
 
1. EBIT
   
87
   
89
   
86
   
73
   
83
   
79
   
86
   
96
   
106
   
104
   
80
 
annual growth
   
n.a.
   
2.2
%
 
(3.2
%)
 
(15.9
%)
 
14.2
%
 
(4.7
%)
 
8.8
%
 
12.2
%
 
10.5
%
 
(2.7
%)
 
2.0
%
(-) tax
   
(22
)
 
(22
)
 
(22
)
 
(18
)
 
(21
)
 
(20
)
 
(21
)
 
(24
)
 
(27
)
 
(26
)
 
(20
)
effective tax rate
   
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
 
(25.0
%)
3. EBIT (-) tax
   
65
   
67
   
65
   
54
   
62
   
59
   
64
   
72
   
80
   
78
   
60
 
(+) Depreciation & Amortization
   
15
   
15
   
15
   
15
   
15
   
16
   
16
   
16
   
16
   
16
   
17
 
(-) Capex
   
(5
)
 
(5
)
 
(5
)
 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 
(17
)
(-) Changes in net operating working capital
   
15
   
(0
)
 
0
   
(1
)
 
1
   
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
1
   
(1
)
 
0
 
4. Free cash flow to the Firm
   
90
   
77
   
75
   
63
   
73
   
68
   
74
   
82
   
91
   
87
   
60
 
annual growth
   
n.a.
   
(15.2
%)
 
(2.3
%)
 
(15.5
%)
 
14.9
%
 
(6.4
%)
 
8.6
%
 
10.5
%
 
11.1
%
 
(3.9
%)
 
n.m.
 

Note: Annual free cash flow in US$ millions
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management

 
 

TEV (R$ million)
(R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model)

(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity
value calculated in US$

TEV/ Average EBITDA
(R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model)

(a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity
value calculated in US$
 
 56
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 


Assumptions - IPQ
Selected income statement drivers
 
Volumes remain flat at 600 thousand tons based on company information confirmed by Ipiranga management
 
 
Gross margin is based on cash spreads of Polyethylene and Polypropylene based on adjusted CMAI forecasts
 
 
 57
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 


Assumptions - IPQ (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers
 
CMAI price forecasts for Polyethylene and Polypropylene in US Dollars
 

 
 
 58
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 


Assumptions - IPQ (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers

Maintenance CAPEX projected based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management
 
 
Based on property, plant and equipment depreciation schedule
 
 
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006
 
Change in net operating working capital
Net operating working capital (R$ million)     2005A      2006A     2007E     2008E     2009E     2010E     2011E     2012E     2013E     2014E     2015E     2016E  
Net operating working capital
   
(36
)
 
68
   
36
    36    
36
   
38
   
37
   
40
   
41
   
43
   
41
   
43
 
(+) current assets
   
409
   
619
   
517
    522    
474
   
438
   
437
   
462
   
509
   
588
   
570
   
564
 
(-) current liabilities
   
445
   
551
   
481
    486    
439
   
400
   
400
   
422
   
468
   
545
   
529
   
522
 
Change in net operating working capital
                                                                         
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital
               
32
   
(0
)
 
1
   
(3
)
 
1
   
(3
)
 
(1
)
 
(2
)
 
2
   
(2
)
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management
                                                                 

 
 59


 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 


Tab G

Valuation of other assets based on multiples

 
 60
 

 
Economic value of assets
Section 3
 


Valuation summary - Other
 
         
 
TEV/’06
Company
 
Description
 
TEV (R$mm)
 
EBITDA
 
n
The business has operated on a break even basis (sometimes given
       
Refinaria de Petróleo Ipiranga
 
special tax incentives by the State)
 
9
 
6.5x
(RIPI)
         
(pg. 77)
 
n
Valuation based on comparable trading companies detailed on page 77
       
             
 
n
A chemical products distributor with over 5,000 clients in 50 different
       
Ipiranga Química S.A. (IQ)
 
markets
 
176
 
8.6x
           
(pg. 76)
 
n
Valuation based on precedent transactions detailed on page 76
       
             
 
n
A producer of specialty petrochemicals; consolidated by CBPI SA
       
             
Empresa Carioca de Produtos
n
Valuation based on comparable trading companies
 
18
 
6.3x
 Químicos S.A. (EMCA)
         
(pg. 75)
 
n
Comparable sample includes both specialty and commodity
       
 
 
petrochemical trading companies detailed on page 75
       
             
 
n
A producer of asphalt and pavement surface products
       
Ipiranga Asfaltos (IASA)
     
89
 
6.8x
 
n
Valuation based on precedent transactions detailed on page 77
     
(pg. 77)
             
 
n
A retail convenience store chain attached to DPPI and CBPI gas stations,
       
AM/PM Comestíveis
 
consolidated by CBPI
 
236
 
7.5x
           
(pg. 76)
 
n
Valuation based on comparable trading companies detailed on page 76
       
             
 
n
A subsidiary that owns 152 and operates 15 of the gas stations in DPPI’s
       
Isa-Sul Administração e Part. Ltda.
 
region
 
140
 
8.8x
           
(pg. 83)
 
n
Valuation based on the same multiple as DPPI implied by the DCF as described on note (1) below
       
Note:    All valuation based on the median of the sample of multiples of comparable companies applied to metrics in US dollars, unless otherwise noted
Valuation was estimated based on EBITDA multiples given that EBITDA is a proxy for cash flow generation. The use of EBITDA as a value driver has the advantage of taking into consideration profitability combined with mitigating the impact of financial leverage
(1) 8.8x=US$265 million/US$ 30 million; equivalent to TEV of DPPI (ex-Isa Sul) in US dollars divided by EBITDA of DPPI (ex- Isa Sul) in 2006 in US dollars
Source: Company information and Wall Street Research

 
 61
 

 
Final considerations
Section 4
 
 
Section 4

 
Final considerations

 
 
 
 62
 

 
Final considerations
Section 4
   
 
Share price range

Share price range based on the economic value (R$ per share)

 
   
-5%
 
Mid-range
 
+5%
CBPI
 
26.97
 
28.39
 
29.81
DPPI
 
41.11
 
43.28
 
45.44
RIPI
 
51.63
 
54.35
 
57.06
Ultrapar
 
64.48
 
67.87
 
71.26
Note: 10% range in compliance with the CVM Resolution #361/02.
 
 
63


 
 
Glossary
Section 5
   
 

 
Section 5

Glossary
 
 
64




 
Glossary
Section 5
   
 
n
Beta: beta against the S&P500, a measure of systemic risk
 
n
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): methodology used to define the cost of equity
 
n
Capex: Capital Expenditures
 
n
Cost of Equity (Ke): return required by the equity holder
 
n
Cost of debt(Kd): cost of third party financing
 
n
CVM: Comissão de Valores Mobiliários
 
n
D&A: depreciation and amortization
 
n
Net debt: Cash and cash equivalents, net position in derivatives, export notes, short and long-term bank loans, receivable and payable dividends, short and long-term receivables and payables related to debentures, short and long-term pension funds deficits, provisions, and other receivables and payables to related parties, including subscription bonus (“bônus de subscrição”)
 
n
Drivers: value drivers or key drivers
 
n
EBIT: Earnings Before Interests and Taxes
 
n
EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
 
n
EMBI: Emerging Markets Bond Index – Brazil is a proxi for the Brazilian sovereign debt yield curve. The EMBI-Brazil accounts for the weighted average premium of the Brazilian sovereign bonds to the US Treasury, which risk is perceived as practically zero (source: O Estado de São Paulo)
 
n
EV or TEV: Enterprise value
 
n
Equity value: TEV minus net debt
 
n
Dollar: American Dollar
 
n
DCF: Discounted cash flow
 
n
FCFF: Free Cash Flow to Firm
 
n
Operating cash flow: relates to cash inflows and outflows solely related to the operations
 
n
Free float: percentage of shares in circulation of the total capital of the company
 
 
65
 

 
Glossary
Section 5
   
 
n
JCP: interest on capital (“Juros sobre Capital Próprio”)
 
n
LTM: Last twelve months
 
n
Gross income: Total revenue, excluding deductions from sales and costs of production
 
n
IPCA: consumer price index
 
n
NOPLAT: Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes
 
n
ON: “Ação Ordinária” ordinary or voting share
 
n
PN: “Ação Preferencial” preferred or non-voting share
 
n
GDP: Gross Domestic Product defined as goods and services produced in a country excluding expenses utilized in the process of production during a year. A method of measuring the total value generated by all economic activities
 
n
Nominal GDP is GDP in nominal terms, including inflation. Real GDP is GDP in constant dollars in which the growth rate excludes inflation
 
n
ERP: equity risk premium is the expected premium for investing in stocks
 
n
CRP: country risk premium is the expected premium for investing in a certain specific country
 
n
Spread: price or yield differential
 
n
Tag-along”: (minority) shareholders right to join a transaction in which another shareholder (usually controlling shareholder) is selling their stake. In Brazil, the legislation specifies that voting shareholders of public entities have the right to receive a minimum offer of 80% the price to be paid for control (the 80% tag-along right)
 
66
 

 
Glossary
Section 5
   
 
n
Terminal value: value of the company at the end of the projection
 
n
Total Enterprise Value (TEV): Total value of the company calculated based on economic value of shareholders’ equity plus net debt
 
n
Risk free rate: US Treasury
 
n
Return on Capital ("ROC"): = growth rate divided by reinvestment rate
 
n
Reinvestment rate: = (Capex-Depreciation plus Change in non-cash working capital) devided by (EBIT x (1-tax rate)
 
n
VP: Present value
 
n
WACC: Weighted Average Cost of Capital
 
 
 

 


67
 

 
Share price evolution
Appendix I
   
 



Appendix I

Share price evolution
 
 
 
68





 
 
Share price evolution
Appendix I
   
 


Weighted average share prices - 3/17/06 - 3/17/07

Ultrapar (Share price in R$, Volume in ‘000’s) 


Month
 
PN Price
 
Volume
March-06(a)
 
38.27
 
676
April-06
 
36.41
 
990
May-06
 
36.99
 
1,078
June-06
 
34.49
 
1,511
July-06
 
33.88
 
1,159
August-06
 
35.51
 
1,503
September-06
 
38.48
 
905
October-06
 
40.40
 
1,296
November-06
 
47.58
 
1,702
December-06
 
47.75
 
1,088
January-07
 
51.07
 
1,938
February-07
 
53.02
 
2,530
March-07(b)
 
50.78
 
733
WA share price
 
R$43.1
   

Notes: (a) March 17, 2006, to March 31, 2006 (15 days)
             (b) March 1, 2007, to March16, 2007 (16 days)
Source: FactSet

CBPI (Share price in R$, Volume in ‘000’s) 


Month
 
PN Price
 
Volume
 
ON Price
 
Volume
March-06(a)
 
15.65
 
3,401
 
20.00
 
6
April-06
 
17.94
 
6,389
 
20.75
 
16
May-06
 
17.84
 
5,933
 
21.83
 
3
June-06
 
17.48
 
5,717
 
20.63
 
7
July-06
 
17.02
 
5,001
 
21.83
 
4
August-06
 
17.30
 
6,600
 
24.12
 
0
September-06
 
17.28
 
4,821
 
21.11
 
3
October-06
 
18.78
 
4,459
 
21.29
 
24
November-06
 
18.56
 
4,189
 
21.67
 
17
December-06
 
18.96
 
4,221
 
21.93
 
23
January-07
 
19.18
 
4,891
 
22.22
 
12
February-07
 
22.28
 
3,579
 
26.04
 
7
March-07(b)
 
22.36
 
3,322
 
27.87
 
1
WA share price
 
R$18.3
     
R$21.7
   

Notes: (a) March 17, 2006, to March 31, 2006 (15 days)
            (b) March 1, 2007, to March 16, 2007 (16 days)
Source: FactSet
 
RIPI (Share price in R$, Volume in ‘000’s) 


Month
 
PN Price
 
Volume
 
ON Price
 
Volume
March-06(a)
 
23.61
 
84
 
39.05
 
83
April-06
 
24.96
 
665
 
35.83
 
123
May-06
 
28.95
 
1,134
 
36.52
 
266
June-06
 
30.59
 
425
 
36.99
 
144
July-06
 
30.10
 
323
 
36.21
 
72
August-06
 
31.22
 
497
 
37.35
 
166
September-06
 
33.17
 
415
 
38.45
 
56
October-06
 
35.80
 
437
 
39.69
 
95
November-06
 
37.01
 
353
 
41.51
 
139
December-06
 
37.36
 
289
 
42.56
 
93
January-07
 
37.44
 
568
 
43.72
 
95
February-07
 
40.63
 
371
 
50.00
 
141
March-07(b)
 
42.54
 
292
 
70.48
 
370
WA share price
 
R$32.7
     
R$45.8
   

Notes: (a) March 17, 2006, to March 31, 2006 (15 days)
            (b) March 1, 2007, to March 16, 2007 (16 days)
Source: FactSet

DPPI (Share price in R$, Volume in ‘000’s) 


Month
 
PN Price
 
Volume
 
ON Price
 
Volume
March-06(a)
 
23.03
 
38
 
39.00
 
2
April-06
 
24.01
 
251
 
42.47
 
2
May-06
 
25.12
 
185
 
38.05
 
2
June-06
 
24.02
 
398
 
42.92
 
1
July-06
 
24.09
 
113
 
35.74
 
2
August-06
 
23.20
 
261
 
32.25
 
2
September-06
 
23.09
 
115
 
36.54
 
0
October-06
 
23.08
 
318
 
30.20
 
2
November-06
 
23.71
 
460
 
27.71
 
1
December-06
 
25.54
 
316
 
28.69
 
2
January-07
 
27.98
 
239
 
30.00
 
1
February-07
 
32.70
 
138
 
35.00
 
0
March-07(b)
 
33.08
 
87
 
55.96
 
8
WA share price
 
R$25.0
     
R$41.7
   

Notes: (a) March 17, 2006, to March 31, 2006 (15 days)
            (b) March 1, 2007, to March 16, 2007 (16 days)
Source: FactSet
 
 
 
69




 
Share price evolution
Appendix I
   
 
Ultrapar
 
 

LTM ending 3/16/2007
--------------------
          ON - R$   PN - R$
          -------   -------
Max         N.A      56.95
W.A.        N.A      43.08
Min         N.A      31.77
-----------------------------
Note: R$ per share
Source: Factset

3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007
---------------------
          ON - R$   PN - R$
          -------   -------
Max         N.A      63.75
W.A.        N.A      56.10
Min         N.A      49.29
-----------------------------
Note: R$ per share
Source: Factset
 
70
 

 
Share price evolution
Appendix I
   
 
RIPI
 
 

LTM ending 3/16/2007
--------------------
          ON - R$   PN - R$
          -------   -------
Max         80.15    45.70
W.A.        45.81    32.75
Min         34.00    22.55
-----------------------------
Note: R$ per share
Source: Factset

3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007
---------------------
          ON - R$   PN - R$
          -------   -------
Max         97.68    47.50
W.A.        91.57    44.85
Min         80.15    41.51
-----------------------------
Note: R$ per share
Source: Factset
 
71
 

 
Share price evolution
Appendix I
   
 
CBPI
 
 

LTM ending 3/16/2007
--------------------
          ON - R$   PN - R$
          -------   -------
Max         30.80    23.88
W.A.        21.72    18.32
Min         20.00    14.58
-----------------------------
Note: R$ per share
Source: Factset

3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007
---------------------
          ON - R$   PN - R$
          -------   -------
Max         53.50    25.30
W.A.        52.55    23.28
Min         30.80    22.10
-----------------------------
Note: R$ per share
Source: Factset
 
72
 

 
Share price evolution
Appendix I
   
 
DPPI
 
 

LTM ending 3/16/2007
--------------------
          ON - R$   PN - R$
          -------   -------
Max         60.00    34.99
W.A.        41.69    24.99
Min         27.50    22.00
-----------------------------
Note: R$ per share
Source: Factset

3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007
---------------------
          ON - R$   PN - R$
          -------   -------
Max         102.02   38.98
W.A.         96.53   34.69
Min          60.00   33.00
-----------------------------
Note: R$ per share
Source: Factset
 
73
 

Comparable multiples
Appendix II
   

 
Because there is no company that is directly comparable to EMCA, we judge that the multiples based on a sample of companies that included commodity and specialty chemical companies, consistent with the business model of EMCA, its margins, and its expected growth, would be an adequate parameter for valuation
 
Appendix II
 
Comparable multiples

 
 
 

74
 

Comparable multiples
Appendix II
   

 
 
Comparable public company analysis - Commodities and specialty chemicals
   
3/14/2007
Market
 
  TEV / EBITDA
 
TEV / Sales 
Company name
Price/share
 
Value
TEV  
2006A 
2007E 
 
2006A 
2007E 
Commodities                            
Nova
 
$29.70
 
$2,477
 
$4,208
 
6.2x
 
5.2x
 
0.6x
 
0.7x
BASF
 
$100.83
 
50,506
 
65,198
 
4.9x
 
4.9x
 
0.9x
 
0.9x
Westlake
 
$27.32
 
1,784
 
1,992
 
4.9x
 
5.1x
 
0.8x
 
0.7x
Dow
 
$43.38
 
41,949
 
49,950
 
6.4x
 
6.4x
 
1.0x
 
1.0x
Lyondell PF(pigments sale)
 
$30.40
 
7,664
 
14,714
 
4.7x
 
4.9x
 
0.6x
 
0.6x
Braskem
 
$6.46
 
2,332
 
4,484
 
5.7x
 
5.6x
 
0.8x
 
0.9x
Suzano Petroquimica
 
$2.16
 
488
 
1,220
 
n.a.
 
6.4x
 
1.1x
 
0.9x
Petroquimica União
 
$4.94
 
518
 
716
 
5.2x
 
6.6x
 
0.5x
 
0.5x
           
Mean - commodities
 
5.5x
 
5.6x
 
0.8x
 
0.8x
           
Median - commodities
 
5.2x
 
5.4x
 
0.8x
 
0.8x
           
Maximum - commodities 
 
6.4x
 
6.6x
 
1.1x
 
1.0x
           
Minimum - commodities 
 
4.7x
 
4.9x
 
0.5x
 
0.5x
 
Specialty chemicals                            
Clariant
 
$16.05
 
$3,637
 
$4,973
 
6.9x
 
6.8x
 
0.7x
 
0.7x
Rhodia
 
$3.50
 
4,220
 
6,794
 
7.1x
 
6.7x
 
1.1x
 
1.0x
Lubrizol
 
$51.10
 
3,601
 
4,665
 
8.2x
 
7.7x
 
1.2x
 
1.1x
Huntsman
 
$18.94
 
4,433
 
7,432
 
7.7x
 
6.4x
 
0.8x
 
0.8x
Celanese
 
$30.40
 
5,288
 
7,619
 
6.6x
 
6.8x
 
1.3x
 
1.2x
           
Mean - specialties
 
7.3x
 
6.9x
 
1.0x
 
1.0x
           
Median - specialties
 
7.1x
 
6.8x
 
1.1x
 
1.0x
           
Maximum - specialties
 
8.2x
 
7.7x
 
1.3x
 
1.2x
           
Minimum - specialties
 
6.6x
 
6.4x
 
0.7x
 
0.7x

Median - Commodities & Specialties              
6.3x
 
6.4x
 
0.8x
 
0.9x

Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg

 
75
 

Comparable multiples
Appendix II
   

Selected comparable multiples - Chemical distributors & Retail Brazil
 
 
Ipiranga Química was valued based on a EBITDA multiple of precedent transactions that involved the sale of distributors of chemical products
 
Precedent transaction analysis - Chemical distributors
 
           
TEV/LTM
 
LTM Metric 
Target - Buyer  
Date
 
TEV
 
EBITDA
 
 EBITDA
ChemCentral - Univar
 
Mar-07
 
$650
 
9.3x
 
$70
INT Muellor Chemical - NIB Capital
 
Jun-01
 
228
 
8.8x
 
26
HCI - Brenntag
 
Nov-00
 
306
 
8.5x
 
36
Ellis & Everard - Vopak Distribution
 
Jan-01
 
480
 
6.1x
 
79
       
Mean
 
8.2x
   
       
Median
 
8.6x
   
       
Max
 
9.3x
   
       
Min
 
6.1x
   
Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted.
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg.
 
Among the companies listed in the local market, CBD is the one with a profile that most closely mirrors AM/PM7

Comparable public company analysis - Retail Brazil
 
 
       
Market
     
TEV / EBITDA
Company name      
 Cap.
 
TEV
 
2006A 
 
2007E
Pao de Acucar - CBD
 
 
 
$4,042
 
$4,687
 
7.5x
 
5.8x
 
Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted.
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg.
 
7 Sales of CBD and AM/PM are primarily foods and consumer goods (foods and perishables exceeds 70% of CBD sales). In the last 5 years, CBD’s average sales growth was 11.4% and EBITDA growth was 12.0%
 

76
 

Comparable multiples
Appendix II
   

Selected comparable multiples - Refiners and Asphalt producers
 
 
Alon, Delek, and Frontier are the companies that best mirror the business of Refinaria (RIPI Opco) and served as a valuation benchmark

Comparable public company analysis - Refiners
 
 
   
Share price
 
Market
     
TEV / EBITDA
     
Price to earnings
Company  
3/23/2007
 
Cap
 
TEV
 
2006A
 
2007E
 
2008E
 
2006A
 
2007E
 
2008E 
Alon USA
 
$36.30
 
$1,699
 
$2,175
 
8.7x
 
6.6x
 
8.4x
 
14.4x
 
10.6x
 
13.4x
Delek US Holdings
 
18.77
 
973
 
1,158
 
6.5
 
6.4
 
6.3
 
9.7
 
10.4
 
11.1
Frontier Oil
 
33.08
 
3,628
 
3,372
 
5.5
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
9.8
 
11.9
 
12.9
           
Average
 
6.9
 
6.5
 
7.0
 
11.3
 
11.0
 
12.5
           
Median
 
6.5
 
6.4
 
6.3
 
9.8
 
10.6
 
12.9
           
Max
 
8.7
 
6.6
 
8.4
 
14.4
 
11.9
 
13.4
           
Min
 
5.5
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
9.7
 
10.4
 
11.1
Notes:    All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted.
 Market Cap. includes options and in-the-money convertibles.
Source:  Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg.
 
 
IASA valuation was driven by precedent transactions that involved the sale of asphalt producers
 
Precedent transaction analysis - Asphalt producers
 
 
           
TEV /
 
TEV /
Target / Buyer  
Date
 
TEV
 
LTM EBITDA
 
LTM Sales
Frehner Construction / Aggregate Industries
 
5/11/2004
 
95.8
 
NA
 
0.6x
Better Materials Corp. / Hanson Building Materials
 
7/18/2003
 
155
 
7.3x
 
1.3x
S.E. Johnson / CRH plc
 
5/16/2003
 
177
 
6.3x
 
0.7x
Kiew it Materials / CSR
 
10/2/2002
 
648
 
8.8x
 
1.3x
Mount Hope Rock Products / CRH plc
 
4/30/2001
 
138
 
7.3x
 
1.3x
Northern Ohio Paving and Dolomite Group / CRH plc
 
6/21/2000
 
172
 
5.9x
 
1.3x
The Shelly Company / CRH plc
 
2/24/2000
 
362
 
5.7x
 
1.1x
Thompson-McCully / CRH plc
 
7/12/1999
 
422
 
8.0x
 
1.7x
Dell Contractors and Millington Quarry / CRH plc
 
7/5/1999
 
146
 
5.6x
 
1.0x
MA Segale - Icon Materials / CRH plc
 
5/1/1998
 
60
 
NA
 
1.2x
       
Mean
 
6.9x
 
1.1x
       
Median
 
6.8x
 
1.2x
       
Max
 
8.8x
 
1.7x
       
Min
 
5.6x
 
0.6x
Notes:    All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted.
CRH plc was previously known as Oldcastle Materials
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg.

 

77


 
 
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate
Appendix III
   

 
Appendix III
 
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate

 
 
 

78
 

 
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate
Appendix III
   

Brazilian fuel distribution industry
 
Ipiranga and Petrobras (BR) are the leading players in the Brazilian fuel distribution market

Changes in the regulatory framework benefited the independent (no brand) players
 
Summary
 
n  
According to ANP, total consumption of fuel, including diesel, gasoline, and alcohol reached 67 million m3 in 2006
 
–       
Consumption of fuel has reached an average annual growth rate of 1.4% in the last 5 years (0.9% growth for diesel, 1.2% for gasoline, and 6.7% for alcohol)
 
n  
Consumption of the three main fuel products (gasoline, alcohol, and diesel) grows as the number of cars grows. Ethanol-fueled vehicles are expected to post the highest growth rate, due to the large number of flexible fuel (flex-fuel) cars entering the market
 
n  
The fuel distribution industry in Brazil has significant growth potential based on the expected growth of the Brazilian economy, and the relatively high number of inhabitants per car observed in Brazil compared to other countries
 
n  
Foreign players have been relatively conservative in regards to their expansion plans, while some have already exited the country. In contrast, Ipiranga and BR are committed to increase their market share and expand their national footprint
 
 

79
 

 
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate
Appendix III
   

Brazilian petrochemical industry

According to ABIQUIM, sales in the Brazilian chemical and petrochemical sector grew 17% between 2000 and 2006, or 2.7% per year
 
 
Brazilian market data – 2006
(000 tons)
 
Total production
   
Imports
   
Exports
   
Total consumption
 
Olefins
   
5,298
     
3
     
171
     
5,130
 
Aromatics
   
1,531
     
91
     
410
     
1,211
 
Polyolefins
   
3,570
     
402
     
1,022
     
2,949
 
PVC
   
676
     
127
     
51
     
752
 
PET
   
307
     
173
     
31
     
449
 
Caprolactam
   
45
     
7
     
18
     
34
 
Note: Total consumption is an estimate; 2006 figures based on preliminary data
Source:  Braskem 20-F
 
Comments
n  
The Brazilian petrochemical industry is organized into first, second, and third generation producers based on the stage of raw material processing
–     
1st generation producers convert naphtha into basic petrochemicals
–     
2nd generation producers process basic petrochemicals into intermediate products
–     
3rd generation producers transform intermediate products into final products
n  
The Brazilian petrochemical industry is the largest in Latin America, but suffers from the lack of integration between businesses and the dependence on imports of raw materials such as naphtha
n  
Petrobras and its subsidiaries are attempting to diminish Brazilian dependence on petrochemical imports through investment projects involving petroleum, gas, and naphtha
n  
Brazil’s major petrochemical production centers are located in Camaçari, Triunfo, and Cubatão. Two large investment projects are located in Rio de Janeiro (Comperi) and in Pernambuco (Abreu e Lima), with operations expected to begin in 2012
n  
According to BMI, the main companies operating in Brazil include Braskem, Copesul, Petroquímica União, Rio Polímeros, Ultrapar, Politeno, and Dow Química
   
Source:  Braskem 20-F, Business Monitor International
 
80
 

 
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate
Appendix III
   

Brazilian LPG distribution industry
 
 
 
Summary
 
n  
In 2006, Brazilian LPG market sales totaled 6.5 million tons. 87% was produced in Brazil and the balance was imported
 
n  
Primary use of LPG:
 
–  
Bottled: Cooking (historically around 70% of sales)
 
–  
Bulk: Cooking and heating in shopping malls, hotels, residences, hospitals, and industrial centers
 
n  
Petrobras is responsible for all national production of LPG (87% of national consumption). LPG is transported from Petrobras storage facilities via pipelines and trucks to the LPG distributors, who then sell it in the retail market
 
n  
The market for LPG is considered mature with moderate growth potential, dependent on economic growth (which will lead consumers to substitute firewood for LPG)
 
n  
Market competition is largely based on brand positioning, customer service, and the efficiency of logistics and distribution
 
Source:  Ultrapar 20-F

Distributors in the market
 
2006
 
2005
 
2004
Ultragaz
23.9%
 
24.0%
 
24.1%
SHV Gas
23.3%
 
23.4%
 
20.5%
Liquigás
21.7%
 
21.8%
 
21.8%
Butano
18.5%
 
18.3%
 
18.7%
Others
12.6%
 
12.5%
 
14.9%
Total
100.0%
 
100.0%
 
100.0%
 
 
Description
 
n  
Ultragaz: Brazil’s market leader in LPG distribution, with over 1.5 million tons delivered in 2006
 
n  
SHV Gas: A distributor controlled by multinational corporation SHV Energy, and operating under the brands “Minasgás” and “Supergasbrás”
 
n  
Liquigás: Acquired by Petrobras from the ENI Group in June 2004; has operated in the Brazilian LPG sector for over 40 years
 
n  
Butano: A Brazilian LPG distributor with over 45 years of market experience
 
Source:  Ultrapar 20-F
 

81
 

 
Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   


 
 
Appendix IV
 
Calculation backup

 
 
 
 

82
 

 
Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   
 
TEV calculation for selected companies
RIPI Opco
 
DPPI Opco
   
IPQ S.A.
Description
 
Obs.
 
Description
 
Obs.
 
Description
 
Obs.
EBITDA (R$ million)
1.42
In 2006
 
TEV (R$ million)
566
TEV DPPI (cash flow pg. 46)
 
Copesul (R$ million)
5,635
100% Copesul (pg. 51)
R$/US$ average
2.19
2006 average
 
R$/US$ - report
2.1385
12/31/2006
 
Copesul (R$ million)
1,660
(1) 29.46% Copesul
EBITDA (US$ million)
0.6
In 2006
 
TEV (US$ million)
265
(1) TEV DPPI in US$
 
IPQ Op. (R$ million)
1,452
(2) 100% IPQ Op. (pg. 56)
Multiple
6.5x
Refer to pg. 76
 
EBITDA (R$ million)
66
EBITDA DPPI
 
TEV (R$ million)
3,112
TEV IPQ SA (3)=(1)+2
TEV (US$ million)
4
   
R$/US$ average
2.19
average for 2006
       
R$/US$ - report
2.1385
12/31/2006  
EBITDA (US$ million)
30.1
(2) EBITDA DPPI in US$
       
TEV (R$ million)
9
TEV RIPI Opco
 
TEV/ 2006 EBITDA
8.8x
(3) = (2) / (1)        
 
 
 
               
       
EBITDA (R$ million)
16.3
EBITDA Isa-Sul 2006
       
       
R$/US$ average
2.19
average for 2006
       
       
EBITDA (US$ million)
7.4
In 2006
       
       
Multiple
8.8x
(3) above
       
       
TEV (US$ million)
65
         
       
R$/US$ - report
2.1385
12/31/2006
       
       
TEV (R$ million)
140
TEV Isa-Sul
       
       
TEV (US$ million)
566
         
       
TEV (R$ million)
706
TEV DPPI Opco
       
 
IQ Opco
 
CBPI Opco
Description
       
Description
EMCA
IASA
AM/PM
Obs.
 
EBITDA (R$ million)
20.8
In 2006
   
EBITDA (R$ million)
3
13.4
32.2
In 2006
 
R$/US$ average
2.19
2006 average
   
R$/US$ average
2.19
2.19
2.19
2006 average
 
EBITDA (US$ million)
9.5
In 2006
   
EBITDA (US$ million)
1.4
6.1
14.7
In 2006
 
Multiple
8.6x
Refer to pg. 76
   
Multiple
6.3x
6.8x
7.5x
Refer to pgs. 75, 77 & 76 
TEV (US$ million)
82
     
TEV (US$ million)
9
42
110
   
R$/US$ - report
2.1385
12/31/2006
   
R$/US$ - report
2.1385
2.1385
2.1385
12/31/2006
 
TEV (R$ million)
176
TEV IQ Opco
   
TEV (R$ million)
18
89
236
TEV
 
         
Description
         
         
TEV (R$ million)
2,421
TEV CBPI (cash flow pg. 40)
 
         
TEV (R$ million)
18
TEV EMCA
     
         
TEV (R$ million)
89
TEV IASA
     
         
TEV (R$ million)
236
TEV AM/PM
     
         
TEV (R$ million)
2,764
TEV CBPI Opco
   


83
 

 
Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   

Net debt calculation
 
Copesul
IPQ
Total debt
358.71
 
Total debt
865.56
Pension funds
8.85
 
Pension funds
6.82
Dividends payable
201.75
 
Dividends payable
17.15
Contingencies
34.46
 
Contingencies
9.44
Payables to related parties
4.53
 
Payables to related parties
(7.52)
Cash & equivalents
(303.86)
 
Cash & equivalents
(21.22)
     
(+) 29.46% Copesul net debt
89.69
Net debt/(cash)
304.44
 
Net debt/(cash)
959.92
Note: All figures in R$ million
   
Note: All figures in R$ million
 
Source: Financial statements of Copesul as of December 31, 2006
 
Source: Financial statements of IPQ as of December 31, 2006
         
         
IQ
 
CBPI
Total debt
7.79
 
Total debt
677.83
Pension funds
2.18
 
Pension funds
53.47
Dividends payable
(70.59)
 
Dividends payable
0
Contingencies
0.87
 
Contingencies
91.37
Payables to related parties
123.59
 
Payables to related parties
(36.31)
Cash & equivalents
(4.00)
 
Cash & equivalents
(157.64)
(+) 92.39% IPQ net debt
886.83
 
(+) 41.47% IQ net debt
392.61
Net debt/(cash)
946.67
 
Net debt/(cash)
1,021.33
Note: All figures in R$ million
   
Note: All figures in R$ million
 
Source: Financial statements of IQ as of December 31, 2006
 
Source: Financial statements of CBPI as of December 31, 2006
 

84
 

 
Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   

Net debt calculation(continued)

 
DPPI 
 
RIPI
Total debt
60.61
 
Total debt
0
Pension funds
31.18
 
Pension funds
39.75
Dividends payable
0
 
Dividends payable
17.89
Contingencies
3.04
 
Contingencies
1.37
Payables to related parties
(40.80)
 
Payables to related parties
27.87
Cash & equivalents
(101.14)
 
Cash & equivalents
(5.70)
(+) 21.01% CBPI net debt
214.62
 
(+) 58.53% IQ
554.05
     
(+) 11.42% CBPI net debt
116.63
     
(+) 7.65% DPPI net debt
12.81
Net debt/(cash)
167.52
 
Net debt/(cash)
764.67
Note: All figures in R$ million
   
Note: All figures in R$ million
 
Source: Financial statements of DPPI as of December 31, 2006
 
Source: Financial statements of RIPI as of December 31, 2006
       
Ultrapar
     
Cash and Marketable securities
(1,070.08)
 
Long term investments
(547.98)
   
Short term Loans
102.76
   
Long term Loans
1,081.85
     
Debentures
312.79
     
Dividends
101.38
     
Pension funds
0
     
Net debt/(cash)
(19.28)
     
Note: All figures in R$ million
       
Source: Financial statements of Ultrapar as of December 31, 2006
     
 

85
 

 
Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   

Corporate tax rate (IR+CS)

 
When applicable, as in the cases of Copesul, CBPI, and DPPI, the projections were based on the average effective corporate tax rate over the past 3 years as shown in the tables that follow. This assumption was validated by the management of the companies in confirmatory due diligence performed by Deutsche Bank
 
For IPQ, in addition to the company’s historical data, the projections were based on our assessment for companies in this sector. An effective tax rate of 25% for the coming years was considered adequate by the management of IPQ in confirmatory due diligence
 
Copesul
       
CBPI
       
DPPI
     
 
2004A
2005A
2006A
   
2004A
2005A
2006A
   
2004A
2005A
2006A
Result before IR/CS1
722
722
822
 
Result before IR/CS1
231.0
294.3
239.3
 
Result before IR/CS1
86.1
123.3
92.8
IR/CS
(242)
(231)
(270)
 
IR/CS
(58.7)
(79.0)
(58.9)
 
IR/CS
(21.5)
(29.8)
(18.0)
Effective rate
33.5%
31.9%
32.8%
 
Effective rate
25.4%
26.9%
24.6%
 
Effective rate
25.0%
24.2%
19.3%
average
32.8%
     
average
25.6%
     
average
22.8%
   
                           
(1) Excludes equity income result
       
(1) Excludes equity income result
       
(1) Excludes equituy income result
     
Values in millions of Reais
       
Values in millions of Reais
       
Values in millions of Reais
     
 
For Ultrapar, the projections were based on a greater effective tax rate (22%) than the average of the last 3 years (16%). Such assumption is based on Ultrapar’s guidance which reflects a conservative view of expected fiscal incentives for projects located in areas under the influence of ADENE (previously SUDENE)
 
Ultrapar
       
 
2004A
2005A
2006A
 
Result before IR/CS1
502.9
329.2
342.5
 
IR/CS
(81.5)
(49.3)
(61.4)
 
Effective rate
16.2%
15.0%
17.9%
 
average
16.4%
     
         
(1) Excludes equity income result
       
Values in millions of Reais
       
 

86
 

 
Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   

Capital structure
 
Our analysis is based on companies that best represent each sector, excluding the companies that, from our point of view, are under-levered or over-levered
     
Petrochemical
 
Distribution 
The optimal capital structure is estimated as 50% debt, 50% equity
 
The optimal capital structure is estimated as 40% debt, 60% equity
                     
   
Market
 
Net
 
Net
     
Market
 
Net
 
Net
Company
 
Cap1
 
Debt2
 
debt/Cap
 
Company
 
Cap1
 
Debt2
 
debt/Cap
Braskem
 
4,966
 
4,512
 
48%
 
Pantry
 
1,075
 
750
 
41%
Suzano Petroquímica
 
970
 
1,541
 
61%
               
Petroquímica União
 
1,137
 
417
 
27%
         
Average
 
41%
       
Average
 
45%
         
Median
 
41%
       
Median
 
48%
               
               
 
           
Notes:
             
Notes:
           
Values in R$ million
             
Values in R$ million
           
(1) Market capitalization as of February 28, 2007  
 
(1) Market capitalization as of February 28, 2007  
(2) Balance sheet as of December 2006 including minority interest 
 
(2) Balance sheet as of December 2006 including minority interest 
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, and the companies
 
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, and Pantry
 
 
Ultrapar
Our analysis uses a sub-optimal capital structure of 35% debt, 65% equity, based on the capital structure observed in a sample of companies* that include those with a sub-optimal capital structure, in line with the recent practice by Ultrapar of maintaining low financial leverage
 
 

 
Notes:
(*) For example: petrochemical companies (Braskem, Suzano Petroquimico, Petroquimica União) and gas distributors (Amerigas Partners LP, Ferrellgas Partners LP, Buckeye Partners LP, Enbridge Energy Partners LP, Enterprise Product Partners LP, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP, Magellan Midstream Partners LP, Plains All American Pipeline LP, Crosstex Energy LP, Copano Energy LLC)
 
 
n  
Fuel distribution: considering a capital structure based on the same sample used for the beta, it would result in a 12.7% WACC for CBPI and 12.7% WACC for DPPI. We considered more appropriate to use a more refined sample excluding the companies Casey’s and Alimentation Couche, which have sub-optimal capital structures (less than 20% debt), that resulted in a 12.2% WACC for CBPI and 12.3% WACC for DPPI
 
n  
Petrochemical: considering a capital structure based on the same sample used for the beta, it would result in a 11.7% WACC for Copesul and a 12.0% WACC for IPQ. We considered more appropriate to use a more refined sample excluding the companies Copesul, BASF, and Nova Chemicals, which have sub-optimal capital structures (below 20% debt and above 70% debt), that resulted in a 11.2% WACC for Copesul and 11.8% WACC for IPQ
 
n  
For Ultrapar, we observed the debt to capital ratio of other companies with the same underlying operations as Ultrapar8, such as for example: petrochemical companies (Braskem, Suzano Petroquimica, Petroquimica União) and LPG distributors (Amerigas Partners LP, Ferrellgas Partners LP, Buckeye Partners LP, Enbridge Energy Partners LP, Enterprise Product Partners LP, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP, Magellan Midstream Partners LP, Plains All American Pipeline LP, Crosstex Energy Inc., Crosstex Energy LP, Copano Energy LLC). We have not excluded companies whose capital structure were sub-optimal in line with Ultrapar’s management preference for a low financial leverage
 
8 For example, the average of the betas of the referenced companies is 0.53, below the beta of 0.64 implicit for Ultrapar under the utilized assumptions (pg. 24). We consider the observed beta for Ultrapar to be
more appropriate than the average of the comparable companies within similar operations. The betas for each company are: Braskem (0.76), Suzano Petroquimica (0.36), Petroquimica União (0.42), Amerigas Partners LP (0.24), Ferrellgas Partners LP (0.11), Buckeye Partners LP (0.42), Enbridge Energy Partners LP (0.32), Enterprise Product Partners LP (0.54), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (0.34), Magellan idstream Partners LP (0.51), Plains All American Pipeline (0.47), Crosstex Energy Inc. (0.69), Crosstex Energy LP (0.42), Copano Energy LLC (0.44). (source: Bloomberg)
 

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Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   

Brazilian fuel market

The volume of fuel (alcohol and gasoline only) was calculated by multiplying the number of cars in Brazil (based in the regression of number of cars versus the GDP per capita) by the estimated average consumption of fuel for each type of vehicle

 
The average fuel consumption was estimated to be approximately 1.23 m3/year for gasoline-based vehicles, and approximately 1.75m3/year for vehicles that consume alcohol, based on the different energy content of alcohol and gasoline
 
 

88
 

 
Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   

Capital expenditure – CBPI cash flow


(in millions of Reais unless otherwise indicated)
2007E
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
a) Total investments by the company
304.2
288.9
357.9
429.3
498.2
449.4
486.7
554.3
611.8
626.0
a.1) Fixed assets (50%)
152.1
144.5
178.9
214.6
249.1
224.7
243.3
277.1
305.9
313.0
Graph pg. 44
a.2) Financing to clients1 (50%)
152.1
144.5
178.9
214.6
249.1
224.7
243.3
277.1
305.9
313.0
                       
b) Repayment of financing to clients2
144.9
147.3
147.2
158.5
179.3
214.2
229.5
239.0
248.4
275.5
(a) - (b) = c) CBPI Investments (R$ million)
159.3
141.6
210.7
270.8
318.8
235.1
257.2
315.2
363.4
350.6
       c) CBPI Investments (US$ million)
73.7
63.2
91.3
115.7
134.2
97.6
105.2
127.0
144.3
137.2
DCF pg. 40
 
Notes:
(1) Assumes that CBPI finances investments to clients over an average of 3 years
(2) Repayment of principal included in other operating income (included in EBIT)
 
The Discounted Cash Flow depicted on page 40 of this Report is in US dollar in contrast to the chart on page 44 that is in Brazilian Reais
 
In general, all investments in the distribution network are equally shared between CBPI and the dealer (owner of the point of sale, or the “Client”). CBPI is responsible for 50% (fifty percent) of all capital expenditures, which are capitalized on the company’s balance sheet. The other 50% (fifty percent) of expenditures are the Clients’ responsibilities who pay for it through a financing line from CBPI, which is amortized over 3 years
 
CBPI’s cash outflow depicted in the Discounted Cash Flow is, therefore, 100% (one hundred percent) of the annual investments in the distribution network in each year (item “a” above) minus the Client’s repayments of financing relative to previous years investments (item “b” above)

 
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Calculation backup
Appendix IV
   
 
Capital expenditure – DPPI cash flow


(in millions of Reais unless otherwise indicated)
2007E
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
a) Total investments by the company
49.0
42.8
45.7
47.6
42.8
53.6
53.4
55.5
57.0
51.3
 
a.1) Fixed assets (50%)
24.5
21.4
22.9
23.8
21.4
26.8
26.7
27.7
28.5
25.7
Graph pg. 49
a.2) Financing to clients1 (50%)
24.5
21.4
22.9
23.8
21.4
26.8
26.7
27.7
28.5
25.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
b) Repayment of financing to clients2
17.6
25.8
32.9
22.9
22.7
22.7
24.0
25.0
27.1
27.6
(a) - (b) = c) DPPI Investments (R$ million)
31.4
17.0
12.8
24.6
20.1
30.9
29.4
30.5
29.9
23.7
   c) DPPI Investments (US$ million)
14.5
7.6
5.6
10.5
8.5
12.8
12.0
12.3
11.9
9.3
DCF pg. 46
 
Notes:
(1) Assumes that CBPI finances investments to clients over an average of 3 years
(2) Repayment of principal included in other operating income (included in EBIT)
 
The Discounted Cash Flow depicted on page 46 of this Report is in US dollar in contrast to the chart on page 49 that is in Brazilian Reais
 
In general, all investments in the distribution network are equally shared between CBPI and the dealer (owner of the point of sale, or the “Client”). CBPI is responsible for 50% (fifty percent) of all capital expenditures, which are capitalized on the company’s balance sheet. The other 50% (fifty percent) of expenditures are the Clients’ responsibilities who pay for it through a financing line from CBPI, which is amortized over 3 years
 
CBPI’s cash outflow depicted in the Discounted Cash Flow is, therefore, 100% (one hundred percent) of the annual investments in the distribution network in each year (item “a” above) minus the Client’s repayments of financing relative to previous years investments (item “b” above)
 

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Other relevant information
Appendix V
   



 
 
 
Appendix V
 
Other relevant information

 
 
 
 

91
 

 
Other relevant information
Appendix V
   

Mr. José Manuel Magro – external consultant

Mr. José Manuel Magro was hired by Ultra to advise on the analysis of the Brazilian fuel market and on the analysis of CBPI and DPPI’s operations
 
n  
Mr. José Manuel Magro has a BBA from Fundação Getulio Vargas (RJ), got a postgraduate degree in International Marketing at INSEAD – France and earned his MBA in Marketing from a joint program ESPM Brazil / University of California Riverside, US
 
n  
Mr. José Manuel Magro has worked for over 18 years at the Shell group. Mr. José Manuel Magro joined Shell in Brasil in 1981 in the Lubricants Planning division, which was followed by assignments in Operations, Aviation business and Marketing divisions
 
n  
In 1989, Mr. José Manuel Magro joined Shell Portugal as Marketing and Automotive Fuels Retail Director where he was responsible for the start-up of the Automotive division of Shell in Spain
 
n  
In 1994, Mr. José Manuel Magro became the Marketing Coordinator for Shell’s International Automotive Retail division based in London, England. He also represented Shell’s shareholder to oversee the investments in the automotive retail businesses in South Europe and Latin America, especially in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Brazil, Chile and Argentina. Mr. José Manuel Magro assisted Group to launch and international policy for pricing fuels, the customer loyalty program “Smart” and the “Select” convenience store business
 
n  
In 1997, Mr. José Manuel Magro returned to Shell Brasil as Director for the Automotive Fuels Retail Marketing division responsible for the development and management of the Brazilian retail network that reached 3,200 retail sites and over 300 convenience stores
 
n  
At the end of 1999, Mr. José Manuel Magro left Shell to become the Marketing Vice President of TAM, a Brazilian airline carrier, where he launched the loyalty program “Fidelidade” and the partnerships with American Airlines and Air France
 
n  
In 2002, Mr. José Manuel Magro joined the British global communication group WPP where he covered oil companies. He was part of the Global team responsible for the development of British Petroleum (“BP”) brand. Also in 2002, Mr. José Manuel Magro became the CEO of the advertising agency Red Cell Brazil/ 141 Worldwide
 
n  
In 2006, Mr. José Manuel Magro became Young & Rubicam’s Vice President, the largest Brazilian advertising agency whose main clients include TAM, Casas Bahia, VIVO, Danone, Bradesco and Chevron/Texaco


 
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Description of capital expenditure – CBPI
 
 
   
Comments
 
NOPLAT growth versus Reinvestment rate
The capex in perpetuity
adds value to CBPI as
the ROC is higher than
the WACC
 
Investments in perpetuity add value to CBPI
–  In perpetuity, the normalized free cash flow to the Firm is 11.5% higher than the cash flow in the last year of the projections despite capex being higher than depreciation
–  The reinvestment rate in perpetuity is 45% lower than the average reinvestment rate over the projection period
–  The Return on Capital (“ROC”) in perpetuity is 29.6%, therefore higher than the cost of capital
–  ROC = growth rate divided by the reinvestment rate
 
CBPI’s free cash flow in perpetuity has been normalized9 to serve as base for the calculation of CBPI’s terminal value because the company in the end of the projections is not considered mature yet
–  During the projections, NOPLAT growth fluctuates reflecting the company is not mature yet. Accordingly, the reinvestment rate also fluctuates
–  Assumes an annual 3% growth in volumes for CBPI to maintain its market share
–  Capex was estimated based on the expected number of gas stations required to sell the estimated volume of fuels
–  opening of 164 new gas stations to sell the extra fuel being distributed
–  renovating about 850 stations (equal to 20% of the base in the last year of the projections)
–  Repayment of client financing is sufficient to finance clients’ future capex
 
 
 
n  In perpetuity, capex is  greater than depreciation
  In this case, the growth in perpetuity requires substantial investments
  Depreciation is not adjusted for inflation as the investments are
  The projection is not sufficiently long to reach the expected maturity of the market in the terminal year
 
n  There are precedents in literature and in the Brazilian market
  Copeland stated that estimating cash flow in perpetuity should reflect expectations of the evolution of the business and the sector10
  This assumption is validated by Damodaran11
  The Valuation Report for Ferronorte, Ferroban and ALL is based on Gordon’s Growth Model in the final year of projections, in which capex was expected to be greater than depreciation
 
n  Part of CBPI’s investments is not CBPI’s capex (and does not incorporate CBPI’s asset base), but it also incorporate Clients net financing (refer to pg. 89 and 94)
 
CBPI’s Reinvestment rate

(9) We believe it was inappropriate to perpetuate the last cash flow of the projections as CBPI has not yet reached its maturity at that point.
(10) “Estimating the continuing value parameters should be an integral part of the forecasting process. The continuing value parameters should reflect a coherent forecast for the long term economic situation of the company and its industry” from Valuation: measuring and managing the value of companies. Copelland, Tom. Koller, Tim. Murrin, Jack (McKinsey and Company). John Willey and Sons, USA, 3rd edition, pg 277.
(11) The dark side of valuation: valuing old tech, new tech, and new economy companies, de Aswath Damodaran, pgs. 199 e 207.
 
 
 

 
 
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Description of capital expenditure – CBPI(continued)
 
 
Reinvestment rate versus Sales volume growth
 
Capex versus Depreciation
 
The hypothetical example above demonstrates that in years 10 and 11, when the company is in equilibrium and investing at the same rate as depreciation, there is a difference between capex and depreciation
The difference results from the monetary adjustment in assets value vis-a-vis the linear depreciation of assets (which is not adjusted for inflation)
Note: Values above are in nominal terms for illustrative purpose only
Note:   Sales volume growth should not be compared with the “g” in Gordon’s growth model which corresponds to the growth of the free cash flow to the firm
   
 
 
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Considerations regarding AM/PM valuation
 
n  
As usual in valuation exercises, we have used the DCF method for the most relevant companies that were part of the Ipiranga Group
 
 
–  
 The other companies12 being evaluated were valued based on multiples because the preparation of projections would be subject to a high level of imprecision and wouldn’t improve the quality of the analysis
 
n  
We considered inappropriate to value AM/PM based on the DCF analysis
 
–  
The projected cash flow would be subject to significant imprecision that wouldn’t improve the conclusions from the analysis
 
–  
 A valuation based on DCF assumes the company is able to independently execute its business plan in order to maximize its value. This assumption is incorrect for AM/PM as its operations are directly dependent on CBPI’s strategy on fuels distribution13
 
–  
Forecasts for AM/PM would be based on arbitrary assumptions that would be difficult to justify, as for example, estimating the number of CBPI’s clients that would be interested in opening an AM/PM store in their gas stations14 and how this additional AM/PM store would impact the consolidated margins. The valuation based on CBD’s multiple avoided using such speculative assumptions about AM/PM business plan and therefore was the best estimate of AM/PM’s value
 
n  
The quality of the valuation based on multiples depends on the quality of the sample15 and not on its size. The quality of the valuation analysis based on multiples depends on the similarities of the companies in the sample and the company being assessed. We have analyzed the companies that could potentially be included in the sample and we have selected those that in our opinion would be a good benchmark for the valuation of AM/PM
 
n  
AM/PM’s valuation was based on CBD multiples because CBD is the Brazilian company that best reflects AM/PM’s business plan. CBD has been selected16 as the best benchmark of value given its business profile, the characteristics of the products being sold, its growth profile and margins
 
n  
Historical growth rates reflect Ipiranga’s strategy to launch AM/PM stores primarily on Ipiranga’s own gas stations and in the best locations available in the network. In the future, we expect growth rates to be lower given that AM/PM’s growth strategy and market positioning are limited to the gas station network, the desire and viability of opening AM/PM stores, and the Ipiranga Group and the clients agreeing on opening stores
 
(12) Specifically, AM/PM represents approximately 6% of CBPI’s value.
 
(13) AM/PM is not able to independently outline and execute a plan to maximize sales and improve profitability, but rather, AM/PM is part of CBPI which in turn is focused on the business of distributing fuel, and therefore increase the Ipiranga’s brand recognition. AM/PM does not operate in a captive market as AM/PM potential clients can acquire their products in other locations such as supermarkets (CBD), other gas stations (within the network or not), and other types of stores such as restaurants, coffee shops, etc.
 
(14) Expanding the AM/PM network is not an exclusive decision of the Ipiranga Group, and therefore is not solely based on Ipiranga Group’s economic perspective. Opening an AM/PM store depends on client and Ipiranga to agreeing on opening a store. Note that the client is not obliged to open an AM/PM store, but rather, the Client could open any other convenience store in their gas stations. In addition, not all the gas stations are ready to the opening of an AM/PM store, which is subject to certain criteria such as location and space among others.
 
 (15) Deutsche Bank did not consider correct to compare AM/PM to apparel stores such as Renner, internet based Submarino, department stores or any other retailer focused on selling toys or electronics
 
 (16) Naturally, other companies were considered to be incorporated into the sample, however we understand CBD is the best benchmark of value comparable to AM/PM. Adding more companies to the sample just for the sake of increasing the number of companies in the sample would not improve the quality of the analysis nor the conclusions, but it would compromise the conclusions of the analysis.
 
 
95