Strictly
private and confidential
|
|
A
Passion to Perform.
|
|
|
|
n
|
These
materials may only be used by Ultrapar Participações S.A. (“Ultrapar”) for
the purposes defined in the engagement letter signed with Deutsche
Bank
Securities Inc. (“Deutsche Bank”). Neither Deutsche Bank nor any of its
affiliates or any of its or their officers, directors, employees,
affiliates, advisors, agents or representatives (collectively,
“Deutsche
Bank Representatives”) makes any express or implied representation or
warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the materials
set
forth herein or provides advice relating to tax, accounting, legal,
antitrust, or other regulatory matters. Nothing contained in the
accompanying materials is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise
or
representation as to the past or the
future
|
n
|
In
connection with Deutsche Bank’s role of “conducting a valuation analysis /
preparing a valuation report” for Ultrapar, and in preparing its report as
to the respective valuations of Companhia Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga
(“CBPI”), Distribuidora de Produtos de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. (“DPPI”) and
Refinaria de Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. (“RIPI”) (collectively, “Ipiranga”, or
the “Ipiranga Group”) and Ultrapar, Deutsche Bank has reviewed certain
publicly available financial and other information concerning Ultrapar
and
the Ipiranga Group and certain internal analyses and other information
furnished to it by Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group. Deutsche Bank
has also
held discussions with members of the senior managements of Ultrapar
and
the Ipiranga Group, and with respect to certain assets, the senior
management of Braskem, regarding the businesses and prospects of
their
respective companies and the operations of the combined company
following
the transactions described herein. In addition, Deutsche Bank has
(i)
reviewed the reported prices and trading activity for Ultrapar’s and the
Ipiranga Group’s stock, (ii) compared certain financial and stock market
information for Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group with similar information
for certain other companies whose securities are publicly traded,
(iii)
reviewed the financial terms of certain recent business combinations
which
it deemed comparable in whole or in part, (iv) reviewed the terms
of the
agreements governing the transaction, and (v) performed such other
studies
and analyses and considered such other factors as it deemed
appropriate
|
|
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank has not assumed responsibility for independent verification
of, and
has not independently verified, any information, whether publicly
available or furnished to it, concerning Ultrapar or the Ipiranga
Group,
including, without limitation, any financial information, forecasts
or
projections considered in connection with the preparation of its
report as
to the respective valuations of Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group.
Accordingly, for purposes of its report, Deutsche Bank has assumed
and
relied upon the accuracy and completeness of all such information
and
Deutsche Bank has not conducted a physical inspection of any of
the
properties or assets, and has not prepared or obtained any independent
evaluation or appraisal of any of the assets or liabilities, of
Ultrapar
or the Ipiranga Group. However,
Deutsche Bank considers consistent the information used in this
Report
|
n
|
It
should be understood that any valuations, financial and other forecasts
and/or estimates or projections and other assumptions contained
in the
accompanying materials (including, without limitation, regarding
financial
and operating performance), were prepared or derived from information
(whether oral or in writing) supplied solely by the respective
managements
of Ultrapar, the Ipiranga Group and Braskem or derived from other
public
sources, without any independent verification by Deutsche Bank,
and
involve numerous and significant subjective determinations and
assumptions
by Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group, which may not be correct. As
a result,
it is expected that there will be a difference between actual and
estimated or projected results, and actual results may vary materially
from those shown herein. In addition, with respect to any such
information
made available to Deutsche Bank and used in its analyses, Deutsche
Bank
has assumed that they have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting
the best currently available estimates and judgments of the respective
managements of Ultrapar and the Ipiranga Group as to the matters
covered
thereby. The Report observes the requirements imposed by Brazilian
Securities Regulation, in particular Rule #361/02 of the Brazilian
Securities Commission ("CVM")
|
n
|
Accordingly,
in preparing its report as to the respective valuations
of Ultrapar and
the Ipiranga Group, neither Deutsche Bank nor any of the
Deutsche Bank
Representatives make any express or implied representation
or warranty, or
express any view, as to the accuracy, reasonableness, completeness
or
achievability of any such financial and other forecasts
and/or estimates
or projections, or as to the determinations or assumptions
on which they
are based. Deutsche Bank’s report is necessarily based upon
economic, market and other conditions as in effect on,
and the information
made available to it as of, the date
hereof
|
|
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank has also assumed that all material governmental, regulatory
or other
approvals and consents required in connection with the consummation
of the
transaction will be obtained and that in connection with obtaining
any
necessary governmental, regulatory or other approvals and consents,
or any
amendments, modifications or waivers to any agreements, instruments
or
orders to which either Ultrapar or the Ipiranga Group is a party
or is
subject or by which it is bound, no limitations, restrictions or
conditions will be imposed or amendments, modifications or waivers
made
that would have a material adverse effect on Ultrapar or the Ipiranga
Group or materially reduce the contemplated benefits of the transaction
to
Ultrapar
|
n
|
This
Report was based on the information available until today, and
the views
expressed are subject to change based upon a number of factors,
including
market conditions and Ultrapar’s and the Ipiranga Group’s business and
prospects. Deutsche Bank does not undertake any obligation to update
or
otherwise revise these materials after the date
hereof
|
n
|
This
Report and its conclusions are not recommendations by Deutsche
Bank as to
whether Ipiranga shareholders should tender their shares in the
mandatory
tender offer, or to Ultrapar or Ipiranga shareholders as to the
fairness
to such shareholders, from a financial point of view, of the exchange
ratio in the incorporation of RIPI, CBPI, DPPI shares in Ultrapar.
Each
shareholder must reach its own conclusions about the advisability
of
accepting the offer presented by Ultrapar and the incorporation
of the
shares of CBPI, DBPI and RIPI by
Ultrapar
|
n
|
This
valuation report incorporates the changes requested by the
Brazilian
Securities Exchange Commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários – CVM)
detailed in the following documents: (i) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº
1017/2007, (ii) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1018/2007, (iii)
OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1019/2007, (iv) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1427/2007,
(v) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1428/2007, (vi) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº
1429/2007 and (vii) OFICIO/CVM/SRE/GER-1/Nº 1703/2007. This revised book
does not present a different assessment of value than the
one presented by
Deutsche Bank on the Valuation Report dated July 4th,
2007
|
|
|
Section
|
|||
1
|
Executive
summary
|
1
|
|
2
|
Valuation
summary
|
9
|
|
A
|
Ultrapar
|
10
|
|
B
|
RIPI
|
13
|
|
C
|
DPPI
|
16
|
|
D
|
CBPI
|
19
|
|
3
|
Economic
value of assets
|
22
|
|
A
|
Ultrapar
|
26
|
|
B
|
Ultrapar
prior to the share merger
|
37
|
|
C
|
Fuel
distribution – CBPI
|
39
|
|
D
|
Fuel
distribution – DPPI
|
45
|
|
E
|
Copesul
|
50
|
|
F
|
IPQ
|
55
|
|
G
|
Valuation
of other assets based on multiples
|
60
|
|
4
|
Final
considerations
|
62
|
|
5
|
Glossary
|
64
|
|
Appendix
|
|||
I
|
Share
price evolution
|
68
|
|
II
|
Comparable
multiples
|
74
|
|
III |
Overview
of the industries in which the assessed companies operate
|
78
|
|
IV |
Calculation
backup
|
82
|
|
V |
Other
relevant information
|
91
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
1
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Initial
considerations
|
n
|
This
appraisal report (“Report” or “Valuation Report”) was prepared by Deutsche
Bank as requested by Ultrapar
|
n
|
The
Report observes the requirements imposed by Brazilian Securities
Regulation, in particular Rule #361/02 of the Brazilian Securities
Commission (“CVM”). Ultrapar requested this Report to be used in
connection with (i) the mandatory tender offers related to the
acquisition
by Ultrapar of the control of Ipiranga Group, and (ii) the incorporation
of CBPI, DPPI and RIPI shares in
Ultrapar
|
n
|
The
ranges for the respective valuations of Ultrapar, CBPI, DPPI and
RIPI are
limited to 10% due to a requirement imposed by Rule #361/02 of
the
CVM
|
2
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
n
|
Economic
value based on discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis for the main
operating companies and comparable multiples for some smaller operating
subsidiaries
|
–
|
Based
on publicly available information and discussions with management
of
Ultrapar and Ipiranga
|
n
|
Market
value based on average share prices weighted by traded
volume
|
–
|
Average
share price weighted by traded volume during the last twelve months
ended
March 16, 2007 (last trading day
pre-announcement)
|
n
|
Book
value of the shares
|
–
|
Based
on Ultrapar and Ipiranga’s audited financial statements as of December
31,2006
|
Economic
value - methodologies for different business
lines
|
||||||||
Discounted
cash flow
|
Codename
|
WACC
|
Public
company comparables
|
Codename
|
||||
Companhia
Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga
|
CBPI
|
12.2%
|
Ipiranga
Química S.A.
|
IQ
|
||||
Distribuidora
de Prod. de Petróleo Ipiranga
|
DPPI
|
12.3%
|
Empresa
Carioca de Prod. Químicos S.A.
|
EMCA
|
||||
Copesul
Central Química
|
Copesul
|
11.2%
|
Ipiranga
Asfaltos
|
IASA
|
||||
Ipiranga
Petroquímica S.A.
|
IPQ
|
11.8%
|
AM/PM
Comestíveis
|
AM/PM
|
||||
Ultrapar
Participações
|
Ultrapar
|
10.6%
|
Isa-Sul
Administração e Part. Ltda
|
Isa-sul
|
||||
Refinaria Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. | Refinery |
3
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Valuation
range -
price
per
share
|
(a) Based on discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) and comparable multiples (b) Market value based on weighted average shares for the 12 months prior to date of announcement (c) Book value based on latest public company filing dated 12/31/2006 |
4
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Discounted
Cash Flow
-
DCF Analysis
|
Comparable
Public
Company
Analysis
|
Comparable
Precedent
Transaction
Analysis
|
||||
Methodology
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Potential
advantages
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Potential
disadvantages
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Considerations
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Notes: (1) TEV - Total Enterprise Value = Equity plus Net debt. |
5
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Deutsche
Bank credentials
|
n
|
Headquartered
in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, Deutsche Bank is the largest bank
in
Germany, and one of the largest financial institutions in Europe
and the
world, as measured by total assets of € 1,126 billion as of December 31,
2006. As of that date, Deutsche Bank employed 68,849 people on
a full-time
equivalent basis, operating in 73 countries out of 1,717 facilities
worldwide, of which 54 % were in Germany. Deutsche Bank offers
a wide
variety of investment, financial and related products and services
to
private individuals, corporate entities and institutional clients
around
the world (source: Deutsche Bank’s 2006 annual
report)
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank and its affiliates’ expertise in assessing Brazilian publicly listed
companies includes: the advisory to Ashmore Energy International
on the
acquisition of Prisma Energy International in 2006, and the fairness
opinion valuation of Companhia Siderúrgica Belgo Mineira in
2005
|
n
|
In
addition to that, Deutsche Bank was responsible for the valuation
report
of Cia. Metalic Nordeste for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (“CSN”) in
2002
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank or its affiliates also advised La Seda de Barcelona S.A. (“LSB”) on
the acquisition of Eastman Chemical Iberica S.A. from Eastman Chemical
Company in 2007, advised Linde AG on the sale of equipment business
of BOC
Edwards to CCMP Capital in 2007, advised Gazprom on the sale of
a 10.7%
stake to Rosneftegaz, advised ConocoPhillips on the divestment
of selected
European downstream assets (pending), advised Giant Industries
on its sale
to Western Refining Inc. and provided a fairness opinion valuation
(pending), and is advising Valero on strategic alternatives for
the Lima,
Ohio refinery, among other
assignments
|
n
|
Other
selected transactions that involved valuation of public companies
include:
the advisory to Fairchild Semiconductor International in its acquisition
of System General Corp, and the advisory to Healthcare REIT in
its
acquisition of Windrose Medical Properties Trust. Deutsche Bank
also acted
as advisor to International DisplayWorks Inc. when it was acquired
by
Flextronics International Ltd. and to US LEC Corp when it merged
with
Paetec Communications, Inc. All these transactions required a fairness
opinion valuation
|
n
|
Deutsche
Bank and its affiliates have a qualified team of professionals
based in
New York and São Paulo led by Mr. Ian Reid who was responsible for
producing this Report
|
n
|
In
delivering the Report, Deutsche Bank followed its internal policies
applicable to the delivery of valuation reports, including forming
an
internal valuation committee to review and approve the
report
|
–
|
The
valuation committee is comprised of at least 3 senior bankers
from the
M&A department that had met at least twice as it is usual on the
2nd
and 4th of April
|
6
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Additional
considerations
|
n
|
The
date of this Report is April 4,
2007
|
n
|
This
Report may be solely used in the context of the request made by
Ultrapar
to Deutsche Bank
|
n
|
Research
reports prepared by different areas of Deutsche Bank may utilize
different
assumptions with respect to the future performance of Ultrapar
and
Ipiranga than those used in the Valuation Report, and thus potentially
present significantly different conclusions with respect to valuation.
Those
different areas at Deutsche Bank are independent to the Corporate
Finance
and Mergers and Acquisitions department that was responsible for
the
elaboration of this Report. Those different areas have their own sources
of information and a different assessment about what they make
available
to the public in the form of publications, and there is no communication
between the professionals involved in the elaboration of this report
and
the professionals of those different areas. Deutsche Bank has strict
internal policies regarding the segregation of public and private
areas at
the bank and monitoring the information flow between them in order
to
guarantee that both areas operate
independently
|
n
|
In
compliance with the resolution CVM #361/02, Deutsche Bank states
that as
of April 4, 2007:
|
–
|
There
is no commercial or credit relationship that could impact this
Report
|
–
|
There
is no conflict of interest that compromises the independence
necessary to
prepare this Report
|
–
|
Deutsche
Bank and its affiliates held 8,527 non-voting shares of Braskem
and
171,000 ADRs of Braskem; 62,175 voting shares of Petrobras, and
500,540
ADRs of Petrobras; Deutsche Bank and its affiliates did not hold,
directly
or indirectly, any shares of CBPI, DBPI and RIPI, nor did they
hold shares
or ADRs of Ultrapar, Petrobras or Braskem other than the shares/ADRs
mentioned above
|
–
|
Deutsche
Bank is engaged in sales and trading transactions with Petrobras
and
Braskem, which includes, but is not limited to,
derivatives
|
–
|
In
May 2006, Deutsche Bank received R$2,673,760.50 net of taxes from
Petrobras for the advisory and structuring services rendered in
connection
with the acquisition of ABB's stake in Termobahia. Deutsche Bank
did not
receive any other fees from Ultrapar, Braskem or Petrobras in connection
with financial advisory, consulting or auditing services, or any
other
investment banking services over the past 12
months
|
–
|
Deutsche
Bank will receive US$3,000,000 net of taxes as a fee for the delivery
of
this Report
|
Ian
Reid - Managing Director
|
7
|
Executive
summary
|
Section
1
|
Additional
considerations (continued)
|
Ian
Reid – Managing Director
|
n
|
Ian
Reid, Managing Director for Corporate Finance and Mergers
and Acquisitions
for Latin America, was responsible for the preparation
of this Valuation
Report. Projects relevant in which Mr. Reid has been
involved include the
merger of Brahma and Antarctica to create Ambev, the
unwinding of CSN’s
controlling interest in CVRD (advisor to CVRD), acquisition
of Bolivian
refinery by Petrobras (advisor to Petrobras), the sale
of Latasa by
Bradesco, Alcoa, and JPMorgan to Rexam (advisor to the
sellers), the
acquisition of Panamco by Coca Cola FEMSA (advisor to
Coca Cola FEMSA),
the repurchase by FEMSA of Interbrew’s stake in Femsa Cerveza (advisor to
FEMSA)
|
Jose
Securato – Vice President
|
n
|
Jose
Securato, Vice President for Corporate Finance and Mergers
and
Acquisitions for Latin America, also participated in the
preparation of
this Valuation Report. His experience includes, among others,
advisory to
Ashmore Energy International in its acquisition of Prisma
Energy
International in 2006 (which included valuation of Elektro),
the valuation
of Cia. Metalic Nordeste for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (“CSN”) in
2002, the sale of 40% of Indura in Chile in 2007, the sale
of AGF Chile in
2004, the sale of Ática & Scipione in 2004, the acquisition of TCO/NBT
in 2003 and Valuation Reports for the following companies
or their
businesses: Banco Itaú Argentina, Itausaga Corr. Seguros, Itaupromotora de
Vendas, Intrag DTVM, BFB, FIBEMGE, BANERJ, CENF, LAJEADO,
ROSAL, and
MARTINÓPOLIS between 1998 and 1999
|
Steve
Guberer – Associate
|
n
|
Steve
Guberer, Associate for Corporate Finance and Mergers and
Acquisitions for
Latin America, joined Deutsche Bank one year ago. His experience
includes
advisory for Fortress Investment Group and Centerbridge Partners
in their
US$8.9 billion buyout of Penn National Gaming Inc., announced
in June
2007. Steve worked at Deloitte & Touche from 2000 until 2004. Steve
received his MBA from the University of Chicago and his bachelor’s degree
in accounting from Rutgers
University
|
Hunter
Kushner – Analyst
|
n
|
Hunter
Kushner, Analyst for Corporate Finance and Mergers and Acquisitions
for
Latin America, joined Deutsche Bank in June 2006. Hunter
has worked on the
IPO of Klabin Segall in addition to other projects. Hunter
has worked in
the Investment Management Division at JPMorgan and at Moore
Capital
Management. He received his Bachelor of Arts in Political
Science from
Yale University
|
Guilherme
Gama – Analyst
|
n
|
Guilherme
Gama, Analyst for Corporate Finance and Mergers and Acquisitions
for Latin
America, joined Deutsche Bank in 2005. His experience includes
the initial
public offering of Klabin Segall, the public offering of
2008 Notes by
Sabesp, and the bond issuance of 10-year notes of US$140
million in value
as well as the additional perpetual offering by Globo Comunicações. Prior
to this, Guilherme was Financial Director and Junior Business
Administrator for the Fundação Getulio Vargas, São Paulo, and in the
period between 1999 and 2002, he was responsible for operations
and
technical and logistical assistance for Gran Coffee Com.
Loc. Serv., a
business in the sector of coffee serving
systems
|
n
|
Other
areas of the bank including the team for Mergers and Acquisitions,
the
group entitled Energy, Utilities, and Chemicals, and the
group entitled
Oil & Gas also contributed to this
report
|
8
|
Valuation
summary
|
Section
2
|
9
|
Valuation
summary
|
Section
2
|
10
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
■
|
|
Ultragaz
Participações
LTDA
|
|
-
|
Ultragaz
is the leading
distributor of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Brazil, and one
of the
largest distributors in the world by
volume
|
|
-
|
Distributes
bottled and bulk LPG
to residential, commercial, and industrial clients in
Brazil
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$1.4 billion,
and volume sold of 1.5 million
tons
|
■
|
|
Oxiteno
S.A.
|
|
-
|
A
second-generation producer of
commodity & specialty
petrochemicals
|
|
-
|
Oxiteno
is the largest producer of
ethylene oxide and its main derivatives in Latin
America
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$707 million,
and volume sold of 544,000
tons
|
■
|
|
Ultracargo
Oper.
Logísticas e Participações
LTDA
|
|
-
|
Provides
integrated logistics
services for special
products
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of $103
million
|
|
-
|
Storage
capacity at 2006 year end
of 240 thousand cubic
meters.
|
|
-
|
Traveled
in 2006 approximately 43
million kilometers
|
11
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
Economic
value (R$)
|
||||||||||||
Ultrapar
TEV (before steps 1 and 2)
|
5,879
|
|||||||||||
(+)
net cash
|
19 | |||||||||||
Ultrapar
Equity value (before steps 1 and 2)
|
5,898 | |||||||||||
(+)
assets acquired (a)
|
497 | |||||||||||
(-)
price paid(b)
|
(876 | ) |
|
|||||||||
Ultrapar
equity value (after steps 1 and 2)
|
5,520 | |||||||||||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
81.3 | |||||||||||
Price
per share – R$ per share
|
64.48 | 67.87 | 71.26 | |||||||||
|
||||||||||||
-5%
|
+5%
|
Weighted
average share price
LTM
to
announcement(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
|
PN
|
||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
NA
|
17,108
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
NA
|
43.08
|
Book
value – Ultrapar
|
||||
12/31/2006
|
||||
Shareholder
equity – (R$ million)
|
1,940.7
|
|||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
81.3
|
|||
Book
value per share (R$ per share)
|
23.86
|
Weighted
average share price
announcement
to April 2, 2007(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
|
PN
|
||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
NA
|
2,822
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
NA
|
56.10
|
12
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
13
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
■
|
RIPI
is a holding company for
certain Ipiranga investments and operates a
refinery
|
■
|
Companhia
Brasileira de
Petroleo Ipiranga
(CBPI)
|
|
-
|
A
fuels distributor in Brazil,
except in Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and
Amapá
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$9.8 billion and
volume sold of 12.2 billion cubic
meters
|
■
|
Distrib.
de Produtos de
Petroleo Ipiranga
(DPPI)
|
|
-
|
A
fuels distributor in Southern
Brazil
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of $1.6 billion and
volume sold of 1.8 billion cubic
meters
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Química
(IQ)
|
|
-
|
A
wholesale distributor of
chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different
markets
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$212.3 million
and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
|
|
-
|
Through
its ownership in IQ, RIPI
indirectly controls Copesul (with Braskem) and
IPQ
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Petroquímica
(IPQ)
|
|
-
|
A
2nd
generation
producer of high-end
petrochemicals
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$924.3 million
and volume sold of 636,100
tons
|
■
|
Copesul
|
|
-
|
A
naphtha-based cracker owned by
Ipiranga & Braskem
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$2.9 billion and
volume of 2.962 million tons
|
Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, bastos, and Ormazabal families Source: Public Ipiranga information |
14
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
Economic
value
|
||||||||||||||||
100%
|
Proportionate
|
|||||||||||||||
(R$
million)
|
TEV
|
TEV
|
||||||||||||||
IQ SA |
3,051
|
58.53 | % |
1,786
|
||||||||||||
CBPI
SA
|
4,029
|
11.42 | % |
460
|
||||||||||||
DPPI
SA
|
1,552
|
7.65 | % |
119
|
||||||||||||
RIPI
Opco1
|
9
|
100.0 | % |
9
|
||||||||||||
RIPI
– Total Enterprise Value
|
2,373
|
|||||||||||||||
(-)
net debt
|
(765 | ) | ||||||||||||||
RIPI
– Equity value
|
1,609
|
|||||||||||||||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
29.6
|
|||||||||||||||
Price
per share – R$ per share
|
51.63
|
54.35
|
57.06
|
|||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
-5 | % | +5 | % | |||||||||||||
Note:
Figures
in R$ million unless otherwise noted.
(1)
Based on multiples detailed on pages 61 and
83
Source:
RIPI information and Deutsche Bank
|
Weighted
average share price
LTM
to
announcement(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
|
PN
|
||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
1,843
|
5,850
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
45.81
|
32.75
|
||||||
(a)
From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007
|
||||||||
Source:
FactSet
|
Book
value – RIPI SA
|
||||
12/31/2006
|
||||
Shareholder
equity – (R$ million)
|
577.3
|
|||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
29.6
|
|||
Book
value per share (R$ per share)
|
19.50
|
Weighted
average share price
announcement
to April 2, 2007(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
PN
|
|||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
528
|
1,495
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
91.57
|
44.85
|
||||||
(a)
From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007
|
||||||||
Source:
FactSet
|
15
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
16
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
■
|
DPPI
is a distributor of fuels in
Southern Brazil
|
■
|
The
Company delivers fuels to
retail gas stations, industrial
sites
|
■
|
Approximately
65% of volume is
sold to retail gas stations
|
■
|
In
2006, core volume (gasoline,
alcohol, and diesel fuels) was 1.8 billion cubic meters. Total
volume
(including GNV, lubricants, & others) was marginally
higher
|
■
|
In
2006, the Company had 2.5% of
the Brazilian market by volume
sold
|
■
|
|
Isa-Sul
Administração e
Participações
(Isa-Sul)
|
|
-
|
Owns
152 of the gas stations in
DPPI’s region
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$8.7 million and
EBITDA of US$7.5
million
|
■
|
|
Companhia
Brasileira de
Petroleo Ipiranga
(CBPI)
|
|
-
|
A
fuels distributor in Brazil, except in Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima
and
Amapá
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$9.8 billion and
volume sold of 12.2 billion cubic
meters
|
|
-
|
Through
its ownership in CBPI,
DPPI indirectly owns a minority stake in IQ, IPQ, and
Copesul
|
■ |
|
Ipiranga
Química
(IQ)
|
|
-
|
A
wholesale distributor of
chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different
markets
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$212.3 million
and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
|
■
|
|
Ipiranga
Petroquímica
(IPQ)
|
|
-
|
A
2nd
generation
producer of high-end
petrochemicals
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$924.3 million
and volume sold of 636,100
tons
|
■
|
|
Copesul
|
|
-
|
A
naphtha-based cracker owned by
Ipiranga & Braskem
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$2.9 billion and
volume of 2.962 million tons
|
Corporate structure Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal families Source: Public Ipiranga information |
17
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
Economic
value
|
||||||||||||||||
100%
|
Proportionate
|
|||||||||||||||
(R$
million)
|
TEV
|
TEV
|
||||||||||||||
CBPI |
4,029
|
21.01 | % |
847
|
||||||||||||
DPPI
Opco1
|
706
|
100.00 | % |
706
|
||||||||||||
DIPPI
– Total Enterprise Value
|
1,552
|
|||||||||||||||
(-)
net debt
|
(168 | ) | ||||||||||||||
DPPI
– Equity value
|
1,385
|
|||||||||||||||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
32.0
|
|||||||||||||||
Price
per share – R$ per share
|
41.11
|
43.28
|
45.44
|
|||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
-5 | % | +5 | % | |||||||||||||
Note:
Figures in R$ million, except unless otherwise
noted
(1)
Further details on page 83
|
||||||||||||||||
Source: DPPI information and Deutsche Bank |
Weighted
average share price
LTM
to
announcement(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
|
PN
|
||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
24
|
2,919
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
41.69
|
24.99
|
||||||
(a)
From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007
|
||||||||
Source:
FactSet
|
Book
value – DPPI SA
|
||||
12/31/2006
|
||||
Shareholder
equity – (R$ million)
|
804.0
|
|||
Total
number of shares (million)
|
32.0
|
|||
Book
value per share (R$ per share)
|
25.13
|
Weighted
average share price
announcement
to April 2, 2007(a)
|
||||||||
ON
|
PN
|
|||||||
Total
volume (000’s)
|
61
|
514
|
||||||
W.A.
share price (R$ per share)
|
96.53
|
34.69
|
||||||
(a)
From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007
|
||||||||
Source:
FactSet
|
18
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
19
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
■
|
The
largest company in the Ipiranga Group by revenue, CBPI is a distributor
of
fuels in Brazil, except in Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and
Amapá
|
■
|
The
Company delivers fuels to
retail gas stations, industrial
sites
|
■
|
Approximately
65% of volume is
sold to retail gas stations
|
■
|
In
2006, core volume (gasoline,
alcohol, and diesel fuels) was 11.6 billion cubic meters. Total
volume
(including GNV, lubricants, & others) was 12.2 billion cubic
meters
|
■
|
In
2006, the Company had 16.9%
share of the Brazilian market by
volume
|
■
|
Empresa
Carioca de
Produtos Químicos
(EMCA)
|
|
-
|
Produces
specialty oils with
applications in the pharmaceutical, food, cosmetic, and plastics
industries
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$42.5 million
and EBITDA of US$1.4 million
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Asfaltos
(IASA)
|
|
-
|
Produces
asphalt and asphalt
additives, and provides pavement
services
|
|
-
|
2006
sales of US$114.3 million and
EBITDA of US$6.1 million
|
■
|
AM/PM
Comestíveis
|
|
-
|
A
chain of retail convenience
stores attached to CBPI gas
stations
|
|
-
|
2006
sales of US$8.4 million and
EBITDA of US$14.7 million, which includes other operating
income
|
■
|
Ipiranga
Química SA
(IQ)
|
|
-
|
A
wholesale distributor of
chemical products with over 5,000 clients in 50 different
markets
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$212.3 million
and EBITDA of US$9.5 million
|
-
|
Through its ownership in IQ, CBPI, indirectly has a stake in IPQ and Copesul |
■
|
Ipiranga
Petroquímica
(IPQ)
|
|
-
|
A
2nd
generation
producer of high-end
petrochemicals
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$924.3 million
and volume sold of 636,100
tons
|
■
|
Copesul
|
|
-
|
A
naphtha-based cracker owned by
Ipiranga & Braskem
|
|
-
|
2006
revenue of US$2.9 billion and
volume of 2.962 million tons
|
Corporate structure Note: Families include Gouvea, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal families |
20
|
Valuation summary |
Section
2
|
Economic value Book value - CBPI -------------- ----------------- (R$ million) 100% Proportionate 12/31/2006 TEV TEV ---------- Copesul 5,635 29.46% 1,660 (1) Shareholder equity - (R$ million) 1,555.2 IPQ Opco 1,452 100.00% 1,452 (2) Total number of shares (million) 106.0 100% IPQ SA. 3,112 (3)=(1)+(2) Book value per share (R$ per share) 14.68 IPQ SA. 3,112 92.39% 2,875 (4)=(3)x stake IQ Opco 176 100.00% 176 (5) 100% IQ SA 3,051 (6)=(4)+(5) IQ SA 3,051 41.47% 1,265 (7)=(6)x stake CBPI Opco 2,764 100.00% 2,764 (8) CBPI - Total Enterprise Value 4,029 (9)=(7)+(8) (-) net debt (1,021) CBPI - Equity Value 3,008 Total number of shares (million) 106.0 Price per share - R$ per share 26.97 28.39 29.81 ----------------- -5% +5% Note: Figures in R$ million, except unless otherwise noted Note: Book value based on operating company financials Source: Ipiranga information and Deutsche Bank as of 12/31/2006 Source: Company's filings Weighted average share price Weighted average share price LTM to announcement (a) announcement to April 2, 2007 (a) ----------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- ON PN ON PN ======= ========= ======= ========= Total volume (000's) 123 62.524 Total volume (000's) 168 7,946 W.A. share price (R$ per share) 21.72 18.32 W.A. share price (R$ per share) 52.55 23.28 (a) From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007 (a) From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007 Source: FactSet Source: FactSet |
21
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
22
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
DCF
|
||
n | Basic assumptions | |
– | 10-year projections | |
– | Base date of DCF valuation is December 31, 2006 | |
– | Exchange rate of 2.1385 R$/US$ as of 12/31/2006 | |
– | Models projected in nominal Brazilian Reais; cash flows were converted to US Dollars based on average exchange rate for the year | |
– | WACC in nominal US Dollars | |
– | To discount the annual cash flow to the present value, it considers that cash flow is generated in the middle of the year (in June)1 | |
n | Perpetuity | |
– | Calculated based on Gordon’s growth formula | |
– | Adjustments to capex/ depreciation, tax rates, net operating working capital | |
– | Petrochemical companies: perpetuity cash flow adjusted for mid-cycle | |
n | Equity value | |
– | TEV minus net debt (as defined in the glossary) | |
DCF
valuation
|
n
|
Companhia
Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga
|
n
|
Distribuidora
de Prod. de Petróleo Ipiranga
|
n
|
Copesul
Central Química
|
n
|
Ipiranga
Petroquímica S.A.
|
n
|
Ultrapar
Participações
|
Source: Ultrapar and Deutsche Bank |
Multiples
|
||
n | Basic assumptions | |
– | Based on multiples of EBITDA | |
n | Precedent transactions | |
– | Applied to LTM EBITDA | |
n | Trading comparables | |
– | Applied to 2006 EBITDA except for petrochemicals, where an average of 3 - 5 years (normalized EBITDA) was used depending on the company | |
Multiple
-based valuation
|
n
|
Ipiranga
Química S.A. – precedent
transactions
|
n
|
Empresa
Carioca de Prod. Químicos S.A. – trading
comps
|
n
|
Ipiranga
Asfaltos – precedent transactions
|
n
|
AM/PM
Comestíveis – trading comps
|
n
|
Isa-Sul
Adm.
e Part. Ltda – implied multiple from DPPI
DCF
|
Source: Ultrapar and Deutsche Bank |
23
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Ipiranga
companies
|
|||||||||
|
Ultrapar
|
CBPI
|
DPPI
|
Copesul
|
IPQ
|
||||
I. Beta calculation | |||||||||
1.
Beta un-levered (a)
|
0.64
|
0.90
|
0.90
|
0.86
|
0.86
|
||||
Long-term
optimal debt (D)/cap (D+E) ratio
|
35%
(b)
|
40%
(c)
|
40%
(c)
|
50%
(c)
|
50%
(c)
|
||||
Long-term
optimal equity (E) /cap (D+E) ratio
|
65%
(b)
|
60%
(c)
|
60%
(c)
|
50%
(c)
|
50%
(c)
|
||||
Marginal
tax
rate (tax)(d)
|
22%
|
26%
|
23%
|
33%
|
25%
|
||||
2.
Re-levered equity beta (β)
|
0.92
|
1.35
|
1.36
|
1.44
|
1.50
|
||||
II.
Calculation of Cost of Capital
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
US
risk free
rate (Rfr) (e)
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
4.5%
p.a.
|
||||
Local
risk
premium (CRP) (f)
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
||||
Local
long-term risk free rate
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
||||
US
equity risk
premium (ERP) (g)
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
7.1%
p.a.
|
||||
3.
Cost of Equity (Ke)
|
13.0%
p.a.
|
16.1%
p.a.
|
16.2%
p.a.
|
16.7%
p.a.
|
17.2
p.a.%
|
||||
Local
long-term risk free rate
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
6.5%
p.a.
|
||||
Long-term
corporate risk spread (h)
|
150
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
200
bps
|
||||
4.
Cost of Debt (Kd)
|
8.0%
p.a.
|
8.50%
p.a.
|
8.50%
p.a.
|
8.50%
p.a.
|
8.50%
p.a.
|
||||
5.
WACC
|
10.6%
p.a.
|
12.2%
p.a.
|
12.3%
p.a.
|
11.2%
p.a.
|
11.8%
p.a.
|
||||
Note:
|
(a)
Ultrapar’s
beta is the observed and the betas for Grupo Ipiranga’s companies are the
betas against the S&P 500 for the sample of companies that represent
each industry. Based on 2 years of weekly betas. CBPI and
DPPI’s betas
were based on Pantry Inc, Casey’s General Stores, and Alimentacion Couche
Tard Inc.2
Copesul and IPQ’s betas were based on Copesul, Braskem, Suzano
Petroquímica, Petroquímica União, BASF and Nova Chemicals (source:
Bloomberg as of February 18, 2007)
|
(b)
Based on a
more conservative company risk profile than the optimal capital
structure
for the industry
|
|
(c)
Based on
comparable public companies
|
|
(d)
Marginal
tax rates as provided by the management of the companies.
Refer to
supporting material in Appendix IV
|
|
(e)
US risk
free rate is the yield of the US Treasury (source:
FactSet)
|
|
(f)
Local risk
premium based on spread of the sovereign bond to the equivalent
US
Treasury (source: Bloomberg)
|
|
(g)
Equity
risk premium from Ibbotson’s 2006 report
|
|
(h)
Long term
corporate risk spreads are based on companies outstanding
debt
(source: the companies’
financials)
|
Source:
Bloomberg, Factset and the
companies
|
24
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
US
Economy
|
2004A
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Inflation(1)
|
1.6%
|
2.6%
|
2.3%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
US
Treasury(1)
|
4.1%
|
4.1%
|
4.7%
|
4.5%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
5.0%
|
Brazil
Economy
|
2004A
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
GDP
- real growth(2)
|
4.9%
|
2.3%
|
2.9%
|
3.5%
|
3.7%
|
3.6%
|
3.4%
|
3.3%
|
3.1%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
GDP
- nominal growth
|
12.8%
|
9.7%
|
6.1%
|
7.4%
|
7.8%
|
7.2%
|
7.0%
|
6.9%
|
6.7%
|
6.6%
|
6.6%
|
6.6%
|
6.6%
|
Brazilian
population growth(3)
|
1.5%
|
1.4%
|
1.4%
|
1.4%
|
1.3%
|
1.3%
|
1.3%
|
1.2%
|
1.2%
|
1.2%
|
1.1%
|
1.1%
|
1.1%
|
Inflation
(IPCA)(1)
|
7.6%
|
5.7%
|
3.1%
|
3.8%
|
4.0%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
3.5%
|
Selic
(average)(4)
|
16.2%
|
19.0%
|
15.1%
|
12.2%
|
11.1%
|
10.0%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
9.5%
|
CDI
(Brazilian interbank rate)(1)
|
16.2%
|
19.0%
|
15.0%
|
12.7%
|
11.6%
|
10.5%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
10.0%
|
FX
rate - eop(5)
|
2.65
|
2.34
|
2.14
|
2.18
|
2.29
|
2.32
|
2.36
|
2.39
|
2.43
|
2.46
|
2.50
|
2.54
|
2.57
|
FX
rate - avg(5)
|
2.93
|
2.43
|
2.19
|
2.16
|
2.24
|
2.31
|
2.34
|
2.38
|
2.41
|
2.45
|
2.48
|
2.52
|
2.56
|
Average
R$ devaluation
|
(20.3%)
|
(9.9%)
|
(1.5%)
|
3.7%
|
3.0%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
Notes
and
Sources:
|
(1)
Based on
estimates of the market and Deutsche
Bank
|
(2)
Based on
IBGE’s old methodology3. Source: IBGE for 2004 to 2006, and
based on estimates of the market and Deutsche Bank for
2007 and
onwards
|
(3)
IBGE –
Brazilian Institute of Geography and
Statistics
|
(4)
Market
consensus for 2007 and 2008 (source: BCB, February 2007) and
based on estimates of the market and Deutsche Bank for
2009 and
onwards
|
(5)
Market
consensus for 2007 and 2008 (source: BCB, February 2007). Brazil
– USA purchase power parity (PPP) for 2009
onwards
|
25
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
26
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Perp.
|
||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
157
|
163
|
218
|
239
|
249
|
251
|
257
|
286
|
297
|
347
|
364
|
|||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
4.1%
|
|
33.2%
|
9.7%
|
|
4.4%
|
0.6%
|
2.4%
|
11.3%
|
3.9%
|
16.8%
|
5.0%
|
|||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(37)
|
(38)
|
(47)
|
|
(51)
|
(53)
|
(54)
|
(56)
|
(64)
|
(67)
|
(77)
|
(80)
|
||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(23.4%)
|
(23.5%)
|
|
(21.6%)
|
(21.3%)
|
(21.1%)
|
(21.5%)
|
(21.7%)
|
(22.4%)
|
(22.6%)
|
(22.1%)
|
(22.1%)
|
||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
120
|
125
|
171
|
188
|
|
197
|
197
|
201
|
222
|
|
230
|
270
|
284
|
|||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
93
|
103
|
|
111
|
119
|
127
|
131
|
134
|
116
|
119
|
87
|
87
|
||||||||||
(-)
Capex
|
(253)
|
(154)
|
(103)
|
(96)
|
(99)
|
(101)
|
(104)
|
(106)
|
(100)
|
(98)
|
(87)
|
|||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
(7)
|
(19)
|
(50)
|
(21)
|
(19)
|
(17)
|
(16)
|
(13)
|
(11)
|
(11)
|
(11)
|
|||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
(47)
|
56
|
129
|
190
|
206
|
|
209
|
215
|
218
|
238
|
248
|
272
|
||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a
|
n.m
|
130.4%
|
47.8%
|
8.3%
|
1.5%
|
3.0%
|
1.5%
|
9.0%
|
4.0%
|
n.m
|
TEV (R$ million) (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ TEV/ 2007 EBITDA (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ |
27
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Note: Excludes depreciation Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance |
28
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
29
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net
operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) |
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
150.2
|
126.4
|
133.5
|
141.9
|
150.0
|
158.5
|
167.4
|
176.6
|
186.2
|
196.3
|
207.0
|
218.2
|
||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
216
|
203
|
215
|
228
|
241
|
255
|
269
|
284
|
299
|
316
|
333
|
351
|
||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
(65)
|
(77)
|
(81)
|
(87)
|
(91)
|
(97)
|
(102)
|
(107)
|
(113)
|
(119)
|
(126)
|
(132)
|
||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(7)
|
(8)
|
(8)
|
(8)
|
(9)
|
(9)
|
(10)
|
(10)
|
(11)
|
(11)
|
30
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
31
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
32
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net
operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital (R$
million)
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
259.5
|
361.2
|
368.0
|
400.0
|
504.5
|
543.7
|
580.0
|
611.8
|
641.0
|
661.7
|
677.3
|
694.2
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
352
|
468
|
478
|
520
|
651
|
700
|
747
|
791
|
830
|
858
|
878
|
898
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
(92
|
)
|
(107
|
)
|
(110
|
)
|
(120
|
)
|
(147
|
)
|
(157
|
)
|
(167
|
)
|
(179
|
)
|
(189
|
)
|
(196
|
)
|
(200
|
)
|
(204
|
)
|
|||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(7
|
)
|
(32
|
)
|
(105
|
)
|
(39
|
)
|
(36
|
)
|
(32
|
)
|
(29
|
)
|
(21
|
)
|
(16
|
)
|
(17
|
)
|
33
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
34
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
35
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working
capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating
working capital
|
14.0
|
16.1
|
17.7
|
19.4
|
21.1
|
22.9
|
23.9
|
24.9
|
26.0
|
27.1
|
28.2
|
29.5
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current
assets
|
33
|
35
|
38
|
42
|
46
|
50
|
52
|
54
|
57
|
59
|
62
|
64
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current
liabilities
|
(19
|
)
|
(19
|
)
|
(20
|
)
|
(23
|
)
|
(25
|
)
|
(27
|
)
|
(28
|
)
|
(29
|
)
|
(31
|
)
|
(32
|
)
|
(33
|
)
|
(35
|
)
|
|||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/
Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(2
|
)
|
(2
|
)
|
(2
|
)
|
(2
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
36
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
37
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
o After completing steps 1 and 2, Ultrapar will have acquired 41.3% of RIPI, 35.4% of DPPI, and 4.1% of CBPI o Ultrapar will spend R$876 million on steps 1 and 2 o These stakes are equivalent to 41.3% of the refinery, 38.5% of the distribution business of DPPI, and 16.9% of the distribution business of CBPI Stake Stake Ipiranga SA at S.A. at Opco ----------- ------- ------- RIPI SA 41.3% 41.3% Refinery DPPI SA 35.4% 38.5% DPPI distribution CBPI CBPI SA 4.1% 16.9% distribution (R$ million) TEV (5) Equity Assets acquired by Ultrapar 591 497 ------------------------------------------------------ Refinery (1) 41,3% 1 (10) DPPI 38,5% 272 290 distribution (2) CBPI 16,9% 315 217 distribution (3) CBPI EMCA (4) 16,9% 3 0 (1) Includes 1/3 of the Refinery only (2) Includes ISA-Sul (3) Includes CBPI distribution and the AM/PM convenience stores in the South and Southeast (3) Assumes that Petrobras will pay with cash for 100% of its stake and will assume no debt from CBPI (4) EMCA will be 100% owned by Ultrapar (5) Represents Ultrapar's stake in the acquired assets |
38
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
39
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
Perp.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
90
|
106
|
122
|
142
|
164
|
251
|
268
|
298
|
340
|
361
|
379
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
18.3 | % | 14.7 | % | 16.5 | % | 15.7 | % | 52.6 | % | 6.9 | % | 11.0 | % | 14.1 | % | 6.3 | % | 5.1 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(23 | ) | (27 | ) | (31 | ) | (36 | ) | (42 | ) | (64 | ) | (69 | ) | (76 | ) | (87 | ) | (93 | ) | (97 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | (25.6 | %) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
67
|
79
|
91
|
106
|
122
|
187
|
200
|
222
|
253
|
269
|
282
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
41
|
47
|
52
|
60
|
69
|
78
|
86
|
84
|
73
|
84
|
83
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Capex, net of reimbursement
|
(74 | ) | (63 | ) | (91 | ) | (116 | ) | (134 | ) | (98 | ) | (105 | ) | (127 | ) | (144 | ) | (137 | ) | (130 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
(8 | ) | (46 | ) | (55 | ) | (58 | ) | (61 | ) | (37 | ) | (50 | ) | (51 | ) | (52 | ) | (59 | ) | (61 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
27
|
17
|
(3 | ) | (8 | ) | (4 | ) |
130
|
131
|
128
|
130
|
156
|
174
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
(37.9 | %) | (120.4 | %) | 125.6 | % | (43.1 | %) |
n.a.
|
0.4 | % | (1.8 | %) | 1.1 | % | 20.1 | % | n.m. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Note: Annual
free cash flow in US$ millions
Cash
flow in perpetuity reflects a
3% growth in sales volume compared to 2016 in line
with GDP’s 3% long-term
expected real growth. These assumptions were evaluated in due
diligence sessions confirmed by management of the businesses
and
consistent with expectations of long-term growth in
each
sector
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
TEV (R$ million) (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ TEV/ 2007 EBITDA (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ |
40
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
41
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
42
|
Economic value of underlying assets |
Section
3
|
43
|
Economic value of underlying assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital (R$
million)
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
671
|
872
|
889
|
992
|
1,119
|
1,253
|
1,399
|
1,487
|
1,608
|
1,734
|
1,863
|
2,015
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
1,342
|
1,491
|
1,681
|
1,882
|
2,126
|
2,386
|
2,668
|
2,888
|
3,123
|
3,377
|
3,651
|
3,947
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
671
|
618
|
792
|
890
|
1,007
|
1,133
|
1,270
|
1,401
|
1,515
|
1,644
|
1,788
|
1,931
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(17 | ) | (103 | ) | (127 | ) | (135 | ) | (145 | ) | (88 | ) | (122 | ) | (125 | ) | (130 | ) | (152 | ) |
44
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
45
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Perp.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
29
|
34
|
35
|
37
|
39
|
41
|
44
|
48
|
55
|
58
|
63
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
14.3 | % | 4.5 | % | 6.5 | % | 4.6 | % | 5.3 | % | 5.5 | % | 11.2 | % | 13.6 | % | 4.8 | % | 9.2 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(7 | ) | (8 | ) | (8 | ) | (9 | ) | (9 | ) | (9 | ) | (10 | ) | (11 | ) | (13 | ) | (13 | ) | (14 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | (22.8 | %) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
23
|
26
|
27
|
29
|
30
|
32
|
34
|
37
|
42
|
44
|
49
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
11
|
8
|
9
|
19
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Capex
|
(15 | ) | (8 | ) | (6 | ) | (11 | ) | (8 | ) | (13 | ) | (12 | ) | (12 | ) | (12 | ) | (9 | ) | (19 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
(12 | ) | (13 | ) | (13 | ) | (12 | ) | (10 | ) | (11 | ) | (11 | ) | (12 | ) | (12 | ) | (13 | ) | (14 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
5
|
14
|
18
|
17
|
23
|
20
|
23
|
25
|
27
|
31
|
35
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
199.4 | % | 28.0 | % | (6.2 | %) | 38.7 | % | (12.7 | %) | 14.0 | % | 6.4 | % | 7.7 | % | 18.4 | % | n.m. |
Note:
|
Annual
free cash flow in US$ millions
Cash
flow in perpetuity reflects a
3% growth in sales volume compared to 2016 in line with GDP’s 3% long-term
expected real growth. These assumptions were evaluated in due
diligence sessions confirmed by management of the businesses
and
consistent with expectations of long-term growth in each
sector
|
Source:
|
Based
on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga
management
|
TEV (R$ million) (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ TEV/ 2007 EBITDA (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ |
46
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
47
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
48
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital (R$
million)
|
2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
145
|
255
|
280
|
310
|
340
|
368
|
392
|
417
|
445
|
475
|
506
|
539
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
232
|
310
|
338
|
375
|
412
|
446
|
474
|
505
|
539
|
575
|
613
|
653
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
87
|
55
|
59
|
65
|
71
|
77
|
82
|
88
|
93
|
100
|
107
|
114
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
(25 | ) | (30 | ) | (31 | ) | (28 | ) | (23 | ) | (26 | ) | (28 | ) | (29 | ) | (31 | ) | (33 | ) |
Source:
|
Based
on
company information and an external consultant - José Magro,
confirmed by Ipiranga management
|
49
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
50
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Perp.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
402
|
294
|
273
|
228
|
231
|
315
|
365
|
454
|
521
|
488
|
374
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
(3.6 | %) | (26.9 | %) | (6.9 | %) | (16.5 | %) | 1.1 | % | 36.6 | % | 15.6 | % | 24.6 | % | 14.6 | % | (6.4 | %) | 2.0 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(132 | ) | (96 | ) | (90 | ) | (75 | ) | (76 | ) | (103 | ) | (119 | ) | (149 | ) | (171 | ) | (160 | ) | (122 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | (32.8 | %) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
270
|
198
|
184
|
154
|
155
|
212
|
245
|
306
|
350
|
328
|
251
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
109
|
107
|
105
|
105
|
45
|
8
|
9
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
31
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Capex
|
(26 | ) | (26 | ) | (27 | ) | (27 | ) | (28 | ) | (28 | ) | (29 | ) | (29 | ) | (30 | ) | (30 | ) | (31 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
24
|
41
|
4
|
17
|
(5 | ) | (42 | ) | (26 | ) | (45 | ) | (35 | ) |
10
|
0
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
378
|
319
|
266
|
248
|
169
|
150
|
199
|
242
|
297
|
321
|
251
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual growth
|
n.a.
|
(15.5 | %) | (16.6 | %) | (6.6 | %) | (32.2 | %) | (11.2 | %) | 33.1 | % | 21.3 | % | 23.0 | % | 7.9 | % | n.m. |
Note:
|
Annual
free cash flow in US$ millions
|
Source:
|
Based
on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga
management
|
TEV (R$ million) ---------------- (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management TEV/Normalized EBITDA --------------------- Note: EBITDA normalized for the industry cycle (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
51
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
52
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
53
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) |
2005A
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
459
|
557
|
506
|
414
|
406
|
366
|
377
|
478
|
543
|
655
|
744
|
719
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
795
|
1,061
|
982
|
795
|
776
|
694
|
714
|
917
|
1,046
|
1,272
|
1,450
|
1,398
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
336
|
504
|
476
|
380
|
370
|
328
|
337
|
439
|
503
|
617
|
706
|
678
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
51
|
92
|
8
|
40
|
(11 | ) | (101 | ) | (65 | ) | (112 | ) | (89 | ) |
25
|
54
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
55
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
|
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
Perp.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
1.
EBIT
|
87
|
89
|
86
|
73
|
83
|
79
|
86
|
96
|
106
|
104
|
80
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
2.2
|
%
|
(3.2
|
%)
|
(15.9
|
%)
|
14.2
|
%
|
(4.7
|
%)
|
8.8
|
%
|
12.2
|
%
|
10.5
|
%
|
(2.7
|
%)
|
2.0
|
%
|
|||||||||||||
(-)
tax
|
(22
|
)
|
(22
|
)
|
(22
|
)
|
(18
|
)
|
(21
|
)
|
(20
|
)
|
(21
|
)
|
(24
|
)
|
(27
|
)
|
(26
|
)
|
(20
|
)
|
||||||||||||
effective
tax rate
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
(25.0
|
%)
|
||||||||||||
3.
EBIT (-) tax
|
65
|
67
|
65
|
54
|
62
|
59
|
64
|
72
|
80
|
78
|
60
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
Depreciation & Amortization
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
Capex
|
(5
|
)
|
(5
|
)
|
(5
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(6
|
)
|
(17
|
)
|
||||||||||||
(-)
Changes in net operating working capital
|
15
|
(0
|
)
|
0
|
(1
|
)
|
1
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
1
|
(1
|
)
|
0
|
|||||||||||||||||
4.
Free cash flow to the Firm
|
90
|
77
|
75
|
63
|
73
|
68
|
74
|
82
|
91
|
87
|
60
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
annual
growth
|
n.a.
|
(15.2
|
%)
|
(2.3
|
%)
|
(15.5
|
%)
|
14.9
|
%
|
(6.4
|
%)
|
8.6
|
%
|
10.5
|
%
|
11.1
|
%
|
(3.9
|
%)
|
n.m.
|
|
TEV (R$ million) (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ TEV/ Average EBITDA (R$ million) Perpetuity growth(a) (Gordon's growth model) (a) Values converted into Reais at 2.14 R$/US$. Net present value and perpetuity value calculated in US$ |
56
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
57
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
58
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
Change
in net operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating working capital
|
(36
|
)
|
68
|
36
|
36 |
36
|
38
|
37
|
40
|
41
|
43
|
41
|
43
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+)
current assets
|
409
|
619
|
517
|
522 |
474
|
438
|
437
|
462
|
509
|
588
|
570
|
564
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
(-)
current liabilities
|
445
|
551
|
481
|
486 |
439
|
400
|
400
|
422
|
468
|
545
|
529
|
522
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change
in net operating working capital
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase)
/ Decrease in net operating working capital
|
32
|
(0
|
)
|
1
|
(3
|
)
|
1
|
(3
|
)
|
(1
|
)
|
(2
|
)
|
2
|
(2
|
)
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
Source:
Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga
management
|
59
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
60
|
Economic value of assets |
Section
3
|
|
TEV/’06
|
|||||
Company
|
Description
|
TEV
(R$mm)
|
EBITDA
|
|||
n
|
The
business has operated on a break even basis (sometimes
given
|
|||||
Refinaria
de Petróleo Ipiranga
|
special
tax incentives by the State)
|
9
|
6.5x
|
|||
(RIPI)
|
(pg.
77)
|
|||||
n
|
Valuation
based on comparable trading companies detailed on page
77
|
|||||
n
|
A
chemical products distributor with over 5,000 clients in
50
different
|
|||||
Ipiranga
Química S.A. (IQ)
|
|
markets
|
176
|
8.6x
|
||
(pg.
76)
|
||||||
n
|
Valuation
based on precedent transactions detailed on page 76
|
|||||
n
|
A
producer of specialty petrochemicals; consolidated by CBPI
SA
|
|||||
Empresa
Carioca de Produtos
|
n
|
Valuation
based on comparable trading companies
|
18
|
6.3x
|
||
Químicos
S.A. (EMCA)
|
(pg.
75)
|
|||||
|
n
|
Comparable
sample includes both specialty and commodity
|
||||
|
petrochemical
trading companies detailed on page 75
|
|||||
n
|
A
producer of asphalt and pavement surface products
|
|||||
Ipiranga
Asfaltos (IASA)
|
89
|
6.8x
|
||||
n
|
Valuation
based on precedent transactions detailed on page 77
|
(pg.
77)
|
||||
n
|
A
retail convenience store chain attached to DPPI and CBPI
gas
stations,
|
|||||
AM/PM
Comestíveis
|
|
consolidated
by CBPI
|
236
|
7.5x
|
||
(pg.
76)
|
||||||
n
|
Valuation
based on comparable trading companies detailed on page
76
|
|||||
n
|
A
subsidiary that owns 152 and operates 15 of the gas stations
in
DPPI’s
|
|||||
Isa-Sul
Administração e Part. Ltda.
|
|
region
|
140
|
8.8x
|
||
(pg.
83)
|
||||||
n
|
Valuation
based on the same multiple as DPPI implied
by the DCF as described on
note (1) below
|
Note:
All valuation based on the median of the sample of multiples
of comparable
companies applied to metrics in US dollars, unless otherwise
noted
|
Valuation
was
estimated based on EBITDA multiples given that EBITDA
is a proxy for cash
flow generation. The use of EBITDA as a value driver
has the advantage of
taking into consideration profitability combined with
mitigating the
impact of financial leverage
(1)
8.8x=US$265 million/US$ 30 million; equivalent to TEV
of DPPI (ex-Isa Sul)
in US dollars divided by EBITDA of DPPI (ex- Isa Sul)
in 2006 in US
dollars
|
61
|
Final
considerations
|
Section
4
|
62
|
Final considerations |
Section
4
|
-5%
|
Mid-range
|
+5%
|
||||
CBPI
|
26.97
|
28.39
|
29.81
|
|||
DPPI
|
41.11
|
43.28
|
45.44
|
|||
RIPI
|
51.63
|
54.35
|
57.06
|
|||
Ultrapar
|
64.48
|
67.87
|
71.26
|
63
|
Glossary |
Section
5
|
64
|
Glossary |
Section
5
|
n
|
Beta:
beta against the S&P500, a measure of systemic
risk
|
n
|
Capital
Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): methodology used to define the cost
of equity
|
n
|
Capex:
Capital Expenditures
|
n
|
Cost
of Equity (Ke): return required by the equity
holder
|
n
|
Cost
of debt(Kd): cost of third party
financing
|
n
|
CVM:
Comissão de Valores Mobiliários
|
n
|
D&A:
depreciation and amortization
|
n
|
Net
debt: Cash and cash equivalents, net position in derivatives,
export notes, short and long-term bank loans, receivable and
payable
dividends, short and long-term receivables and payables related
to
debentures, short and long-term pension funds deficits, provisions,
and
other receivables and payables to related parties, including
subscription
bonus (“bônus
de subscrição”)
|
n
|
Drivers:
value drivers or key drivers
|
n
|
EBIT:
Earnings Before Interests and Taxes
|
n
|
EBITDA:
Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and
Amortization
|
n
|
EMBI:
Emerging Markets Bond Index – Brazil is a proxi for the Brazilian
sovereign debt yield curve. The EMBI-Brazil accounts for the
weighted
average premium of the Brazilian sovereign bonds to the US Treasury,
which
risk is perceived as practically zero (source: O Estado de São
Paulo)
|
n
|
EV
or
TEV: Enterprise value
|
n
|
Equity
value: TEV minus net debt
|
n
|
Dollar:
American Dollar
|
n
|
DCF:
Discounted cash flow
|
n
|
FCFF:
Free Cash Flow to Firm
|
n
|
Operating
cash flow: relates to cash inflows and outflows solely related
to
the operations
|
n
|
Free
float: percentage of shares in circulation of the total capital
of the company
|
65
|
Glossary |
Section
5
|
n
|
JCP:
interest on capital (“Juros sobre Capital
Próprio”)
|
n
|
LTM:
Last twelve months
|
n
|
Gross
income: Total revenue, excluding deductions
from sales and costs
of production
|
n
|
IPCA:
consumer price index
|
n
|
NOPLAT:
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted
Taxes
|
n
|
ON:
“Ação Ordinária” ordinary or voting
share
|
n
|
PN:
“Ação Preferencial” preferred or non-voting
share
|
n
|
GDP:
Gross Domestic Product defined as goods and services
produced in a country
excluding expenses utilized in the process of
production during a year. A
method of measuring the total value generated
by all economic
activities
|
n
|
Nominal
GDP is GDP in nominal terms, including
inflation. Real
GDP is GDP in constant dollars in which
the growth rate excludes
inflation
|
n
|
ERP:
equity risk premium is the expected
premium for investing in
stocks
|
n
|
CRP:
country risk premium is the expected
premium for investing in a
certain specific country
|
n
|
Spread:
price or yield differential
|
n
|
“Tag-along”:
(minority) shareholders right to join a transaction
in which another
shareholder (usually controlling shareholder)
is selling their stake. In
Brazil, the legislation specifies that voting
shareholders of public
entities have the right to receive a minimum
offer of 80% the price to be
paid for control (the 80% tag-along
right)
|
66
|
Glossary |
Section
5
|
n
|
Terminal
value: value of the company at the end of
the
projection
|
n
|
Total
Enterprise Value (TEV): Total value of the company calculated
based on economic value of shareholders’ equity plus net
debt
|
n
|
Risk
free rate: US Treasury
|
n
|
Return
on Capital ("ROC"): = growth rate divided by reinvestment
rate
|
n
|
Reinvestment
rate: = (Capex-Depreciation plus Change
in non-cash working
capital) devided by (EBIT x (1-tax
rate)
|
n
|
VP:
Present value
|
n
|
WACC:
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
|
67
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
68
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
Month
|
PN
Price
|
Volume
|
||
March-06(a)
|
38.27
|
676
|
||
April-06
|
36.41
|
990
|
||
May-06
|
36.99
|
1,078
|
||
June-06
|
34.49
|
1,511
|
||
July-06
|
33.88
|
1,159
|
||
August-06
|
35.51
|
1,503
|
||
September-06
|
38.48
|
905
|
||
October-06
|
40.40
|
1,296
|
||
November-06
|
47.58
|
1,702
|
||
December-06
|
47.75
|
1,088
|
||
January-07
|
51.07
|
1,938
|
||
February-07
|
53.02
|
2,530
|
||
March-07(b)
|
50.78
|
733
|
||
WA
share price
|
R$43.1
|
Month
|
PN
Price
|
Volume
|
ON
Price
|
Volume
|
||||
March-06(a)
|
15.65
|
3,401
|
20.00
|
6
|
||||
April-06
|
17.94
|
6,389
|
20.75
|
16
|
||||
May-06
|
17.84
|
5,933
|
21.83
|
3
|
||||
June-06
|
17.48
|
5,717
|
20.63
|
7
|
||||
July-06
|
17.02
|
5,001
|
21.83
|
4
|
||||
August-06
|
17.30
|
6,600
|
24.12
|
0
|
||||
September-06
|
17.28
|
4,821
|
21.11
|
3
|
||||
October-06
|
18.78
|
4,459
|
21.29
|
24
|
||||
November-06
|
18.56
|
4,189
|
21.67
|
17
|
||||
December-06
|
18.96
|
4,221
|
21.93
|
23
|
||||
January-07
|
19.18
|
4,891
|
22.22
|
12
|
||||
February-07
|
22.28
|
3,579
|
26.04
|
7
|
||||
March-07(b)
|
22.36
|
3,322
|
27.87
|
1
|
||||
WA
share price
|
R$18.3
|
R$21.7
|
Month
|
PN
Price
|
Volume
|
ON
Price
|
Volume
|
||||
March-06(a)
|
23.61
|
84
|
39.05
|
83
|
||||
April-06
|
24.96
|
665
|
35.83
|
123
|
||||
May-06
|
28.95
|
1,134
|
36.52
|
266
|
||||
June-06
|
30.59
|
425
|
36.99
|
144
|
||||
July-06
|
30.10
|
323
|
36.21
|
72
|
||||
August-06
|
31.22
|
497
|
37.35
|
166
|
||||
September-06
|
33.17
|
415
|
38.45
|
56
|
||||
October-06
|
35.80
|
437
|
39.69
|
95
|
||||
November-06
|
37.01
|
353
|
41.51
|
139
|
||||
December-06
|
37.36
|
289
|
42.56
|
93
|
||||
January-07
|
37.44
|
568
|
43.72
|
95
|
||||
February-07
|
40.63
|
371
|
50.00
|
141
|
||||
March-07(b)
|
42.54
|
292
|
70.48
|
370
|
||||
WA
share price
|
R$32.7
|
R$45.8
|
Month
|
PN
Price
|
Volume
|
ON
Price
|
Volume
|
||||
March-06(a)
|
23.03
|
38
|
39.00
|
2
|
||||
April-06
|
24.01
|
251
|
42.47
|
2
|
||||
May-06
|
25.12
|
185
|
38.05
|
2
|
||||
June-06
|
24.02
|
398
|
42.92
|
1
|
||||
July-06
|
24.09
|
113
|
35.74
|
2
|
||||
August-06
|
23.20
|
261
|
32.25
|
2
|
||||
September-06
|
23.09
|
115
|
36.54
|
0
|
||||
October-06
|
23.08
|
318
|
30.20
|
2
|
||||
November-06
|
23.71
|
460
|
27.71
|
1
|
||||
December-06
|
25.54
|
316
|
28.69
|
2
|
||||
January-07
|
27.98
|
239
|
30.00
|
1
|
||||
February-07
|
32.70
|
138
|
35.00
|
0
|
||||
March-07(b)
|
33.08
|
87
|
55.96
|
8
|
||||
WA
share price
|
R$25.0
|
R$41.7
|
69
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
LTM ending 3/16/2007 -------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max N.A 56.95 W.A. N.A 43.08 Min N.A 31.77 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset 3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 --------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max N.A 63.75 W.A. N.A 56.10 Min N.A 49.29 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset |
70
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
LTM ending 3/16/2007 -------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 80.15 45.70 W.A. 45.81 32.75 Min 34.00 22.55 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset 3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 --------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 97.68 47.50 W.A. 91.57 44.85 Min 80.15 41.51 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset |
71
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
LTM ending 3/16/2007 -------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 30.80 23.88 W.A. 21.72 18.32 Min 20.00 14.58 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset 3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 --------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 53.50 25.30 W.A. 52.55 23.28 Min 30.80 22.10 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset |
72
|
Share price evolution |
Appendix
I
|
LTM ending 3/16/2007 -------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 60.00 34.99 W.A. 41.69 24.99 Min 27.50 22.00 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset 3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 --------------------- ON - R$ PN - R$ ------- ------- Max 102.02 38.98 W.A. 96.53 34.69 Min 60.00 33.00 ----------------------------- Note: R$ per share Source: Factset |
73
|
Comparable multiples |
Appendix
II
|
74
|
Comparable multiples |
Appendix
II
|
Comparable
public company analysis - Commodities and specialty
chemicals
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
TEV
/
EBITDA
|
|
|
|||||||
Company name |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Commodities | ||||||||||||||
Nova
|
$29.70
|
$2,477
|
$4,208
|
6.2x
|
5.2x
|
0.6x
|
0.7x
|
|||||||
BASF
|
$100.83
|
50,506
|
65,198
|
4.9x
|
4.9x
|
0.9x
|
0.9x
|
|||||||
Westlake
|
$27.32
|
1,784
|
1,992
|
4.9x
|
5.1x
|
0.8x
|
0.7x
|
|||||||
Dow
|
$43.38
|
41,949
|
49,950
|
6.4x
|
6.4x
|
1.0x
|
1.0x
|
|||||||
Lyondell
PF(pigments sale)
|
$30.40
|
7,664
|
14,714
|
4.7x
|
4.9x
|
0.6x
|
0.6x
|
|||||||
Braskem
|
$6.46
|
2,332
|
4,484
|
5.7x
|
5.6x
|
0.8x
|
0.9x
|
|||||||
Suzano
Petroquimica
|
$2.16
|
488
|
1,220
|
n.a.
|
6.4x
|
1.1x
|
0.9x
|
|||||||
Petroquimica
União
|
$4.94
|
518
|
716
|
5.2x
|
6.6x
|
0.5x
|
0.5x
|
|||||||
Mean
- commodities
|
5.5x
|
5.6x
|
0.8x
|
|
||||||||||
Median
- commodities
|
5.2x
|
5.4x
|
0.8x
|
|
||||||||||
Maximum
- commodities
|
6.4x
|
6.6x
|
1.1x
|
|
||||||||||
Minimum
- commodities
|
4.7x
|
4.9x
|
0.5x
|
|
Specialty chemicals | ||||||||||||||
Clariant
|
$16.05
|
$3,637
|
$4,973
|
6.9x
|
6.8x
|
0.7x
|
|
|||||||
Rhodia
|
$3.50
|
4,220
|
6,794
|
7.1x
|
6.7x
|
1.1x
|
|
|||||||
Lubrizol
|
$51.10
|
3,601
|
4,665
|
8.2x
|
7.7x
|
1.2x
|
|
|||||||
Huntsman
|
$18.94
|
4,433
|
7,432
|
7.7x
|
6.4x
|
0.8x
|
|
|||||||
Celanese
|
$30.40
|
5,288
|
7,619
|
6.6x
|
6.8x
|
1.3x
|
|
|||||||
Mean
- specialties
|
7.3x
|
6.9x
|
1.0x
|
|
||||||||||
Median
- specialties
|
7.1x
|
6.8x
|
1.1x
|
|
||||||||||
Maximum
- specialties
|
8.2x
|
7.7x
|
1.3x
|
|
||||||||||
Minimum
- specialties
|
6.6x
|
6.4x
|
0.7x
|
|
Median - Commodities & Specialties |
6.3x
|
6.4x
|
0.8x
|
0.9x
|
75
|
Comparable multiples |
Appendix
II
|
Precedent
transaction analysis - Chemical distributors
|
TEV/LTM
|
LTM
Metric
|
|||||||
Target - Buyer |
Date
|
TEV
|
EBITDA
|
EBITDA
|
||||
ChemCentral
- Univar
|
Mar-07
|
$650
|
9.3x
|
|
||||
INT
Muellor Chemical - NIB Capital
|
Jun-01
|
228
|
8.8x
|
|
||||
HCI
- Brenntag
|
Nov-00
|
|
306
|
8.5x
|
|
|||
Ellis
& Everard - Vopak Distribution
|
Jan-01
|
480
|
6.1x
|
|
||||
Mean
|
|
|||||||
Median
|
|
|||||||
Max
|
|
|||||||
Min
|
|
Comparable
public company analysis -
Retail Brazil
|
Market
|
TEV
/
EBITDA
|
|||||||||
Company name |
Cap.
|
TEV
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
||||||
Pao
de Acucar - CBD
|
|
$4,042
|
$4,687
|
7.5x
|
5.8x
|
76
|
Comparable multiples |
Appendix
II
|
Comparable
public company analysis -
Refiners
|
Share
price
|
Market
|
TEV
/
EBITDA
|
Price
to earnings
|
|||||||||||||||
Company |
3/23/2007
|
Cap
|
TEV
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2006A
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
|||||||||
Alon
USA
|
$36.30
|
$1,699
|
$2,175
|
8.7x
|
6.6x
|
8.4x
|
14.4x
|
10.6x
|
13.4x
|
|||||||||
Delek
US Holdings
|
18.77
|
973
|
1,158
|
6.5
|
6.4
|
6.3
|
9.7
|
10.4
|
11.1
|
|||||||||
Frontier
Oil
|
33.08
|
3,628
|
3,372
|
5.5
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
9.8
|
11.9
|
12.9
|
|||||||||
Average
|
6.9
|
6.5
|
7.0
|
11.3
|
11.0
|
12.5
|
||||||||||||
Median
|
6.5
|
6.4
|
6.3
|
9.8
|
10.6
|
12.9
|
||||||||||||
Max
|
8.7
|
6.6
|
8.4
|
14.4
|
11.9
|
13.4
|
||||||||||||
Min
|
5.5
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
9.7
|
10.4
|
11.1
|
Precedent
transaction analysis - Asphalt producers
|
TEV
/
|
TEV
/
|
|||||||
Target / Buyer |
Date
|
TEV
|
LTM
EBITDA
|
LTM
Sales
|
||||
Frehner
Construction / Aggregate Industries
|
5/11/2004
|
95.8
|
NA
|
0.6x
|
||||
Better
Materials Corp. / Hanson Building Materials
|
7/18/2003
|
155
|
7.3x
|
1.3x
|
||||
S.E.
Johnson / CRH plc
|
5/16/2003
|
177
|
6.3x
|
0.7x
|
||||
Kiew
it Materials / CSR
|
10/2/2002
|
648
|
8.8x
|
1.3x
|
||||
Mount
Hope Rock Products / CRH plc
|
4/30/2001
|
138
|
7.3x
|
1.3x
|
||||
Northern
Ohio Paving and Dolomite Group / CRH plc
|
6/21/2000
|
172
|
5.9x
|
1.3x
|
||||
The
Shelly Company / CRH plc
|
2/24/2000
|
362
|
5.7x
|
1.1x
|
||||
Thompson-McCully
/ CRH plc
|
7/12/1999
|
422
|
8.0x
|
1.7x
|
||||
Dell
Contractors and Millington Quarry / CRH plc
|
7/5/1999
|
146
|
5.6x
|
1.0x
|
||||
MA
Segale - Icon Materials / CRH plc
|
5/1/1998
|
60
|
NA
|
1.2x
|
||||
Mean
|
6.9x
|
1.1x
|
||||||
Median
|
6.8x
|
1.2x
|
||||||
Max
|
8.8x
|
1.7x
|
||||||
Min
|
5.6x
|
0.6x
|
77
|
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate |
Appendix
III
|
78
|
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate |
Appendix
III
|
Summary
|
n
|
According
to ANP, total
consumption of fuel,
including diesel, gasoline, and
alcohol reached 67 million m3
in
2006
|
–
|
Consumption
of
fuel has reached an average annual growth rate of 1.4% in
the last 5 years
(0.9% growth for diesel, 1.2% for gasoline, and 6.7% for
alcohol)
|
n
|
Consumption
of the
three main fuel
products (gasoline, alcohol,
and diesel) grows
as
the number of cars
grows. Ethanol-fueled
vehicles are expected to post the highest
growth rate, due
to the large number of
flexible fuel (flex-fuel) cars entering the
market
|
n
|
The
fuel distribution industry in
Brazil has significant growth potential based on the expected
growth of
the Brazilian economy, and the relatively high number of
inhabitants per
car observed in Brazil compared to other
countries
|
n
|
Foreign
players have been
relatively conservative in regards to their expansion
plans, while some
have already exited the country. In contrast, Ipiranga
and BR are
committed to increase their market share and expand their
national
footprint
|
79
|
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate |
Appendix
III
|
Brazilian
market data – 2006
|
||||||||||||||||
(000
tons)
|
Total
production
|
Imports
|
Exports
|
Total
consumption
|
||||||||||||
Olefins
|
5,298
|
3
|
171
|
5,130
|
||||||||||||
Aromatics
|
1,531
|
91
|
410
|
1,211
|
||||||||||||
Polyolefins
|
3,570
|
402
|
1,022
|
2,949
|
||||||||||||
PVC
|
676
|
127
|
51
|
752
|
||||||||||||
PET
|
307
|
173
|
31
|
449
|
||||||||||||
Caprolactam
|
45
|
7
|
18
|
34
|
Comments
|
n
|
The
Brazilian
petrochemical industry is organized into first, second,
and third
generation producers based on the stage of raw material
processing
|
–
|
1st
generation producers convert naphtha into basic
petrochemicals
|
–
|
2nd
generation producers process basic petrochemicals into intermediate
products
|
–
|
3rd
generation producers transform intermediate
products into final products
|
n
|
The
Brazilian
petrochemical industry is the largest in Latin America,
but suffers from
the lack of integration between businesses and the dependence
on imports
of raw materials such as naphtha
|
n
|
Petrobras
and
its subsidiaries are attempting to diminish Brazilian
dependence on
petrochemical imports through investment projects involving
petroleum,
gas, and naphtha
|
n
|
Brazil’s
major
petrochemical production centers are located in Camaçari, Triunfo, and
Cubatão. Two large investment projects are located in Rio de
Janeiro
(Comperi) and in Pernambuco (Abreu e Lima), with operations
expected to
begin in 2012
|
n
|
According
to
BMI, the main companies operating in Brazil include
Braskem, Copesul,
Petroquímica União, Rio Polímeros, Ultrapar, Politeno, and Dow
Química
|
80
|
Overview of the industries in which the assessed companies operate |
Appendix
III
|
Summary
|
n
|
In
2006,
Brazilian LPG market sales totaled 6.5 million tons.
87% was produced in
Brazil and the balance was imported
|
n
|
Primary
use of
LPG:
|
–
|
Bottled:
Cooking (historically around 70% of
sales)
|
–
|
Bulk:
Cooking
and heating in shopping malls, hotels, residences,
hospitals, and
industrial centers
|
n
|
Petrobras
is
responsible for all national production of LPG (87%
of national
consumption). LPG is transported from Petrobras storage
facilities via
pipelines and trucks to the LPG distributors, who then
sell it in the
retail market
|
n
|
The
market for
LPG is considered mature with moderate growth potential,
dependent on
economic growth (which will lead consumers to substitute
firewood for
LPG)
|
n
|
Market
competition is largely based on brand positioning,
customer service, and
the efficiency of logistics and
distribution
|
Distributors
in the market
|
|||||
2006
|
2005
|
2004
|
|||
Ultragaz
|
23.9%
|
24.0%
|
24.1%
|
||
SHV
Gas
|
23.3%
|
23.4%
|
20.5%
|
||
Liquigás
|
21.7%
|
21.8%
|
21.8%
|
||
Butano
|
18.5%
|
18.3%
|
18.7%
|
||
Others
|
12.6%
|
12.5%
|
14.9%
|
||
Total
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
Description
|
n
|
Ultragaz:
Brazil’s market leader in LPG
distribution, with over 1.5 million tons delivered
in
2006
|
n
|
SHV
Gas:
A distributor controlled by
multinational corporation SHV Energy, and operating
under the brands
“Minasgás” and
“Supergasbrás”
|
n
|
Liquigás:
Acquired by Petrobras from the
ENI Group in June 2004; has operated in the Brazilian
LPG sector for over
40 years
|
n
|
Butano:
A Brazilian LPG distributor with over 45 years
of market
experience
|
81
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
82
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
RIPI
Opco
|
DPPI
Opco
|
IPQ
S.A.
|
||||||||
Description
|
Obs.
|
Description
|
Obs.
|
Description
|
Obs.
|
|||||
EBITDA
(R$
million)
|
1.42
|
In
2006
|
TEV
(R$
million)
|
566
|
TEV
DPPI (cash
flow pg. 46)
|
Copesul
(R$
million)
|
5,635
|
100%
Copesul
(pg. 51)
|
||
R$/US$
average
|
2.19
|
2006
average
|
R$/US$
-
report
|
2.1385
|
12/31/2006
|
Copesul
(R$
million)
|
1,660
|
(1)
29.46%
Copesul
|
||
EBITDA
(US$
million)
|
0.6
|
In
2006
|
TEV
(US$
million)
|
265
|
(1)
TEV DPPI
in US$
|
IPQ
Op. (R$
million)
|
1,452
|
(2)
100% IPQ
Op. (pg. 56)
|
||
Multiple
|
6.5x
|
Refer
to pg.
76
|
EBITDA
(R$
million)
|
66
|
EBITDA
DPPI
|
TEV
(R$ million)
|
3,112
|
TEV
IPQ SA (3)=(1)+2
|
||
TEV
(US$
million)
|
4
|
R$/US$
average
|
2.19
|
average
for
2006
|
||||||
R$/US$
-
report
|
2.1385
|
12/31/2006 |
EBITDA
(US$
million)
|
30.1
|
(2)
EBITDA
DPPI in US$
|
|||||
TEV
(R$ million)
|
9
|
TEV
RIPI Opco
|
TEV/
2006 EBITDA
|
8.8x
|
(3) = (2) / (1) | |||||
|
|
|
||||||||
EBITDA
(R$
million)
|
16.3
|
EBITDA
Isa-Sul
2006
|
||||||||
R$/US$
average
|
2.19
|
average
for
2006
|
||||||||
EBITDA
(US$
million)
|
7.4
|
In
2006
|
||||||||
Multiple
|
8.8x
|
(3)
above
|
||||||||
TEV
(US$
million)
|
65
|
|||||||||
R$/US$
-
report
|
2.1385
|
12/31/2006
|
||||||||
TEV
(R$ million)
|
140
|
TEV
Isa-Sul
|
||||||||
TEV
(US$
million)
|
566
|
|||||||||
TEV
(R$ million)
|
706
|
TEV
DPPI Opco
|
IQ
Opco
|
CBPI
Opco
|
|||||||||
Description
|
Description
|
EMCA
|
IASA
|
AM/PM
|
Obs.
|
|||||
EBITDA
(R$
million)
|
20.8
|
In
2006
|
EBITDA
(R$
million)
|
3
|
13.4
|
32.2
|
In
2006
|
|||
R$/US$
average
|
2.19
|
2006
average
|
R$/US$
average
|
2.19
|
2.19
|
2.19
|
2006
average
|
|||
EBITDA
(US$
million)
|
9.5
|
In
2006
|
EBITDA
(US$
million)
|
1.4
|
6.1
|
14.7
|
In
2006
|
|||
Multiple
|
8.6x
|
Refer
to pg.
76
|
Multiple
|
6.3x
|
6.8x
|
7.5x
|
Refer
to pgs.
75, 77 & 76
|
|||
TEV
(US$
million)
|
82
|
TEV
(US$
million)
|
9
|
42
|
110
|
|||||
R$/US$
-
report
|
2.1385
|
12/31/2006
|
R$/US$
-
report
|
2.1385
|
2.1385
|
2.1385
|
12/31/2006
|
|||
TEV
(R$ million)
|
176
|
TEV
IQ
Opco
|
TEV
(R$ million)
|
18
|
89
|
236
|
TEV
|
|||
Description
|
||||||||||
TEV
(R$
million)
|
2,421
|
TEV
CBPI (cash
flow pg. 40)
|
||||||||
TEV
(R$
million)
|
18
|
TEV
EMCA
|
||||||||
TEV
(R$
million)
|
89
|
TEV
IASA
|
||||||||
TEV
(R$
million)
|
236
|
TEV
AM/PM
|
||||||||
TEV
(R$ million)
|
2,764
|
TEV
CBPI Opco
|
83
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
Copesul
|
IPQ
|
|||
Total
debt
|
358.71
|
Total
debt
|
865.56
|
|
Pension
funds
|
8.85
|
Pension
funds
|
6.82
|
|
Dividends
payable
|
201.75
|
Dividends
payable
|
17.15
|
|
Contingencies
|
34.46
|
Contingencies
|
9.44
|
|
Payables
to
related parties
|
4.53
|
Payables
to
related parties
|
(7.52)
|
|
Cash
&
equivalents
|
(303.86)
|
Cash
&
equivalents
|
(21.22)
|
|
(+)
29.46%
Copesul net debt
|
89.69
|
|||
Net
debt/(cash)
|
304.44
|
Net
debt/(cash)
|
959.92
|
|
Note:
All
figures in R$ million
|
Note:
All
figures in R$ million
|
|||
Source:
Financial statements of Copesul as of December
31,
2006
|
Source:
Financial statements of IPQ as of December
31,
2006
|
|||
IQ
|
CBPI
|
|||
Total
debt
|
7.79
|
Total
debt
|
677.83
|
|
Pension
funds
|
2.18
|
Pension
funds
|
53.47
|
|
Dividends
payable
|
(70.59)
|
Dividends
payable
|
0
|
|
Contingencies
|
0.87
|
Contingencies
|
91.37
|
|
Payables
to
related parties
|
123.59
|
Payables
to
related parties
|
(36.31)
|
|
Cash
&
equivalents
|
(4.00)
|
Cash
&
equivalents
|
(157.64)
|
|
(+)
92.39% IPQ
net debt
|
886.83
|
(+)
41.47% IQ
net debt
|
392.61
|
|
Net
debt/(cash)
|
946.67
|
Net
debt/(cash)
|
1,021.33
|
|
Note:
All
figures in R$ million
|
Note:
All
figures in R$ million
|
|||
Source:
Financial statements of IQ as of December
31, 2006
|
Source:
Financial statements of CBPI as of December
31,
2006
|
84
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
DPPI
|
RIPI
|
|||
Total
debt
|
60.61
|
Total
debt
|
0
|
|
Pension
funds
|
31.18
|
Pension
funds
|
39.75
|
|
Dividends
payable
|
0
|
Dividends
payable
|
17.89
|
|
Contingencies
|
3.04
|
Contingencies
|
1.37
|
|
Payables
to
related parties
|
(40.80)
|
Payables
to
related parties
|
27.87
|
|
Cash
&
equivalents
|
(101.14)
|
Cash
&
equivalents
|
(5.70)
|
|
(+)
21.01%
CBPI net debt
|
214.62
|
(+)
58.53%
IQ
|
554.05
|
|
(+)
11.42%
CBPI net debt
|
116.63
|
|||
(+)
7.65% DPPI
net debt
|
12.81
|
|||
Net
debt/(cash)
|
167.52
|
Net
debt/(cash)
|
764.67
|
|
Note:
All
figures in R$ million
|
Note:
All
figures in R$ million
|
|||
Source:
Financial statements of DPPI as of
December 31, 2006
|
Source:
Financial statements of RIPI as of
December 31,
2006
|
|||
Ultrapar
|
||||
Cash
and
Marketable securities
|
(1,070.08)
|
|||
Long
term
investments
|
(547.98)
|
|||
Short
term
Loans
|
102.76
|
|||
Long
term
Loans
|
1,081.85
|
|||
Debentures
|
312.79
|
|||
Dividends
|
101.38
|
|||
Pension
funds
|
0
|
|||
Net
debt/(cash)
|
(19.28)
|
|||
Note:
All
figures in R$ million
|
||||
Source:
Financial statements of Ultrapar as
of December 31,
2006
|
85
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
Copesul
|
CBPI
|
DPPI
|
|||||||||||
2004A
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2004A
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
2004A
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
|||||
Result
before IR/CS1
|
722
|
722
|
822
|
Result
before IR/CS1
|
231.0
|
294.3
|
239.3
|
Result
before IR/CS1
|
86.1
|
123.3
|
92.8
|
||
IR/CS
|
(242)
|
(231)
|
(270)
|
IR/CS
|
(58.7)
|
(79.0)
|
(58.9)
|
IR/CS
|
(21.5)
|
(29.8)
|
(18.0)
|
||
Effective
rate
|
33.5%
|
31.9%
|
32.8%
|
Effective
rate
|
25.4%
|
26.9%
|
24.6%
|
Effective
rate
|
25.0%
|
24.2%
|
19.3%
|
||
average
|
32.8%
|
average
|
25.6%
|
average
|
22.8%
|
||||||||
(1)
Excludes equity income
result
|
(1)
Excludes equity income
result
|
(1)
Excludes equituy income
result
|
|||||||||||
Values
in millions of
Reais
|
Values
in millions of
Reais
|
Values
in millions of
Reais
|
Ultrapar
|
||||
2004A
|
2005A
|
2006A
|
||
Result
before IR/CS1
|
502.9
|
329.2
|
342.5
|
|
IR/CS
|
(81.5)
|
(49.3)
|
(61.4)
|
|
Effective
rate
|
16.2%
|
15.0%
|
17.9%
|
|
average
|
16.4%
|
|||
(1)
Excludes
equity income result
|
||||
Values
in millions of
Reais
|
86
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
Petrochemical
|
Distribution
|
|||||||||||||
The
optimal capital structure is
estimated as 50%
debt, 50%
equity
|
The
optimal capital structure is
estimated as 40%
debt, 60%
equity
|
|||||||||||||
Market
|
Net
|
Net
|
Market
|
Net
|
Net
|
|||||||||
Company
|
Cap1
|
Debt2
|
debt/Cap
|
Company
|
Cap1
|
Debt2
|
debt/Cap
|
|||||||
Braskem
|
4,966
|
4,512
|
48%
|
Pantry
|
1,075
|
750
|
41%
|
|||||||
Suzano
Petroquímica
|
970
|
1,541
|
61%
|
|||||||||||
Petroquímica
União
|
1,137
|
417
|
27%
|
Average
|
41%
|
|||||||||
Average
|
45%
|
Median
|
41%
|
|||||||||||
Median
|
48%
|
|||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||
Notes:
|
Notes:
|
|||||||||||||
Values
in R$
million
|
Values
in R$
million
|
|||||||||||||
(1)
Market
capitalization as of February 28,
2007
|
(1)
Market
capitalization as of February 28,
2007
|
|||||||||||||
(2)
Balance
sheet as of December 2006 including
minority
interest
|
(2)
Balance
sheet as of December 2006 including
minority
interest
|
|||||||||||||
Source:
Bloomberg, FactSet, and the companies
|
Source:
Bloomberg, FactSet, and
Pantry
|
Ultrapar
|
Our
analysis
uses a sub-optimal capital structure
of 35% debt, 65% equity, based
on the
capital structure observed in a
sample of companies* that include
those
with a sub-optimal capital structure,
in line with the recent practice
by
Ultrapar of maintaining low financial
leverage
|
Notes:
(*)
For
example: petrochemical companies
(Braskem, Suzano Petroquimico,
Petroquimica União) and gas distributors (Amerigas
Partners LP, Ferrellgas
Partners LP, Buckeye Partners LP,
Enbridge Energy Partners LP, Enterprise
Product Partners LP, Kinder Morgan
Energy Partners LP, Magellan Midstream
Partners LP, Plains All American
Pipeline LP, Crosstex Energy LP,
Copano
Energy LLC)
|
n
|
Fuel
distribution: considering a capital
structure based on the same sample
used for the beta, it would result
in a 12.7% WACC for CBPI and
12.7% WACC
for DPPI. We considered more
appropriate to use a more refined
sample
excluding the companies Casey’s and Alimentation Couche, which
have
sub-optimal capital structures
(less than 20% debt), that resulted
in a
12.2% WACC for CBPI and 12.3%
WACC for
DPPI
|
n
|
Petrochemical:
considering a capital structure
based on the same sample used
for the
beta, it would result in a 11.7%
WACC for Copesul and a 12.0%
WACC for
IPQ. We considered more appropriate
to use a more refined sample
excluding
the companies Copesul, BASF,
and Nova Chemicals, which have
sub-optimal
capital structures (below 20%
debt and above 70% debt), that
resulted in a
11.2% WACC for Copesul and 11.8%
WACC for
IPQ
|
n
|
For
Ultrapar,
we observed the debt to capital
ratio of other companies with
the same
underlying operations as Ultrapar8,
such as for
example: petrochemical companies
(Braskem, Suzano Petroquimica,
Petroquimica União) and LPG distributors (Amerigas
Partners LP, Ferrellgas
Partners LP, Buckeye Partners
LP, Enbridge Energy Partners
LP, Enterprise
Product Partners LP, Kinder Morgan
Energy Partners LP, Magellan
Midstream
Partners LP, Plains All American
Pipeline LP, Crosstex Energy
Inc.,
Crosstex Energy LP, Copano Energy
LLC). We have not excluded companies
whose capital structure were
sub-optimal in line with Ultrapar’s
management preference for a low
financial
leverage
|
87
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
88
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
(in
millions of Reais unless
otherwise indicated)
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
|
a)
Total investments by the
company
|
304.2
|
288.9
|
357.9
|
429.3
|
498.2
|
449.4
|
486.7
|
554.3
|
611.8
|
626.0
|
|
a.1)
Fixed assets
(50%)
|
152.1
|
144.5
|
178.9
|
214.6
|
249.1
|
224.7
|
243.3
|
277.1
|
305.9
|
313.0
|
Graph
pg.
44
|
a.2)
Financing to
clients1
(50%)
|
152.1
|
144.5
|
178.9
|
214.6
|
249.1
|
224.7
|
243.3
|
277.1
|
305.9
|
313.0
|
|
b)
Repayment
of financing to clients2
|
144.9
|
147.3
|
147.2
|
158.5
|
179.3
|
214.2
|
229.5
|
239.0
|
248.4
|
275.5
|
|
(a)
- (b) = c) CBPI Investments
(R$ million)
|
159.3
|
141.6
|
210.7
|
270.8
|
318.8
|
235.1
|
257.2
|
315.2
|
363.4
|
350.6
|
|
c) CBPI Investments (US$ million)
|
73.7
|
63.2
|
91.3
|
115.7
|
134.2
|
97.6
|
105.2
|
127.0
|
144.3
|
137.2
|
DCF
pg.
40
|
Notes:
|
(1)
Assumes
that CBPI finances investments
to clients over an average
of 3
years
|
(2)
Repayment
of principal included in other
operating income (included
in
EBIT)
|
89
|
Calculation backup |
Appendix
IV
|
(in
millions of Reais unless
otherwise indicated)
|
2007E
|
2008E
|
2009E
|
2010E
|
2011E
|
2012E
|
2013E
|
2014E
|
2015E
|
2016E
|
|
a)
Total investments by the
company
|
49.0
|
42.8
|
45.7
|
47.6
|
42.8
|
53.6
|
53.4
|
55.5
|
57.0
|
51.3
|
|
a.1)
Fixed assets
(50%)
|
24.5
|
21.4
|
22.9
|
23.8
|
21.4
|
26.8
|
26.7
|
27.7
|
28.5
|
25.7
|
Graph
pg.
49
|
a.2)
Financing to
clients1
(50%)
|
24.5
|
21.4
|
22.9
|
23.8
|
21.4
|
26.8
|
26.7
|
27.7
|
28.5
|
25.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
b)
Repayment of financing to clients2
|
17.6
|
25.8
|
32.9
|
22.9
|
22.7
|
22.7
|
24.0
|
25.0
|
27.1
|
27.6
|
|
(a)
- (b) = c) DPPI Investments
(R$ million)
|
31.4
|
17.0
|
12.8
|
24.6
|
20.1
|
30.9
|
29.4
|
30.5
|
29.9
|
23.7
|
|
c)
DPPI Investments
(US$ million)
|
14.5
|
7.6
|
5.6
|
10.5
|
8.5
|
12.8
|
12.0
|
12.3
|
11.9
|
9.3
|
DCF
pg.
46
|
Notes:
|
(1)
Assumes
that CBPI finances investments
to clients over an average of
3
years
|
(2)
Repayment
of principal included in other
operating income (included in
EBIT)
|
90
|
Other relevant information |
Appendix
V
|
91
|
Other relevant information |
Appendix
V
|
n
|
Mr.
José
Manuel Magro has a BBA from Fundação Getulio Vargas (RJ), got a
postgraduate degree in International
Marketing at INSEAD – France and
earned his MBA in Marketing from a
joint program ESPM Brazil / University
of California Riverside, US
|
n
|
Mr.
José
Manuel Magro has worked for over 18
years at the Shell group. Mr. José
Manuel Magro joined Shell in Brasil
in 1981 in the Lubricants Planning
division, which was followed by assignments
in Operations, Aviation
business and Marketing divisions
|
n
|
In
1989, Mr.
José Manuel Magro joined Shell Portugal
as Marketing and Automotive Fuels
Retail Director where he was responsible
for the start-up of the
Automotive division of Shell in
Spain
|
n
|
In
1994, Mr.
José Manuel Magro became the Marketing Coordinator
for Shell’s
International Automotive Retail division
based in London, England. He also
represented Shell’s shareholder to oversee the investments
in the
automotive retail businesses in South
Europe and Latin America, especially
in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Brazil,
Chile and Argentina. Mr. José Manuel
Magro assisted Group to launch and
international policy for pricing fuels,
the customer loyalty program “Smart” and the “Select” convenience store
business
|
n
|
In
1997, Mr.
José Manuel Magro returned to Shell Brasil
as Director for the Automotive
Fuels Retail Marketing division responsible
for the development and
management of the Brazilian retail
network that reached 3,200 retail sites
and over 300 convenience stores
|
n
|
At
the end of
1999, Mr. José Manuel Magro left Shell to become the
Marketing Vice
President of TAM, a Brazilian airline
carrier, where he launched the
loyalty program “Fidelidade” and the partnerships with American
Airlines
and Air France
|
n
|
In
2002, Mr.
José Manuel Magro joined the British global
communication group WPP where
he covered oil companies. He was part
of the Global team responsible for
the development of British Petroleum
(“BP”) brand. Also in 2002, Mr. José
Manuel Magro became the CEO of the
advertising agency Red Cell Brazil/
141
Worldwide
|
n
|
In
2006, Mr.
José Manuel Magro became Young & Rubicam’s Vice President, the largest
Brazilian advertising agency whose
main clients include TAM, Casas Bahia,
VIVO, Danone, Bradesco and
Chevron/Texaco
|
92
|
Comments
|
NOPLAT
growth versus Reinvestment rate
|
|||
The
capex in perpetuity
adds
value to CBPI as
the
ROC is higher than
the
WACC
|
n Investments
in
perpetuity add value to CBPI
– In
perpetuity,
the normalized free cash flow to
the Firm is 11.5% higher than the
cash
flow in the last year of the projections
despite capex being higher than
depreciation
– The
reinvestment rate in perpetuity
is 45% lower than the average reinvestment
rate over the projection period
– The
Return on
Capital (“ROC”) in perpetuity is 29.6%, therefore
higher than the cost of
capital
– ROC
= growth
rate divided by the reinvestment
rate
n CBPI’s
free
cash flow in perpetuity has been
normalized9
to serve as
base for the calculation of CBPI’s terminal value because the company
in
the end of the projections is not
considered mature yet
– During
the
projections, NOPLAT growth fluctuates
reflecting the company is not mature
yet. Accordingly, the reinvestment
rate also fluctuates
– Assumes
an
annual 3% growth in volumes for
CBPI to maintain its market
share
– Capex
was
estimated based on the expected
number of gas stations required
to sell
the estimated volume of fuels
– opening
of 164
new gas stations to sell the extra
fuel being distributed
– renovating
about 850 stations (equal to 20%
of the base in the last year of
the
projections)
– Repayment
of
client financing is sufficient
to finance clients’ future
capex
|
|
||
n In
perpetuity, capex is greater than depreciation
– In
this case, the growth in perpetuity
requires substantial
investments
– Depreciation
is not adjusted for inflation
as the investments are
– The
projection is not sufficiently
long to reach the expected maturity
of the
market in the terminal year
n There
are precedents in literature
and in the Brazilian market
– Copeland
stated that estimating cash flow
in perpetuity should reflect
expectations
of the evolution of the business
and the sector10
– This
assumption is validated by Damodaran11
– The
Valuation Report for Ferronorte,
Ferroban and ALL is based on
Gordon’s
Growth Model in the final year
of projections, in which capex
was expected
to be greater than depreciation
n Part
of CBPI’s investments is not CBPI’s capex (and does not incorporate
CBPI’s
asset base), but it also incorporate
Clients net financing (refer
to pg.
89 and 94)
|
CBPI’s
Reinvestment rate
|
|
93
|
Reinvestment
rate versus Sales volume growth
|
Capex
versus Depreciation
|
|
■The
hypothetical example above demonstrates
that in years 10 and 11, when the
company is in equilibrium and investing
at the same rate as depreciation,
there is a difference between capex
and depreciation
■
The
difference results from the monetary
adjustment in assets value vis-a-vis
the linear depreciation of assets
(which is not adjusted for
inflation)
Note:
Values
above are in nominal terms for
illustrative purpose
only
|
||
Note:
Sales volume growth should not
be compared with the “g” in Gordon’s growth
model which corresponds to the
growth of the free cash flow to
the
firm
|
94
|
n
|
As
usual in
valuation exercises, we have
used the DCF method for the most
relevant
companies that were part of the
Ipiranga
Group
|
–
|
The
other companies12
being
evaluated were valued based on
multiples because the preparation
of
projections would be subject
to a high level of imprecision
and wouldn’t
improve the quality of the analysis
|
n
|
We
considered
inappropriate to value AM/PM
based on the DCF
analysis
|
–
|
The
projected
cash flow would be subject to
significant imprecision that
wouldn’t
improve the conclusions from
the
analysis
|
–
|
A
valuation based on DCF assumes
the company is able to independently
execute its business plan in
order to maximize its value.
This assumption
is incorrect for AM/PM as its
operations are directly dependent
on CBPI’s
strategy on fuels distribution13
|
–
|
Forecasts
for
AM/PM would be based on arbitrary
assumptions that would be difficult
to
justify, as for example, estimating
the number of CBPI’s clients that
would be interested in opening
an AM/PM store in their gas stations14
and how this
additional AM/PM store would
impact the consolidated margins.
The
valuation based on CBD’s multiple avoided using such
speculative
assumptions about AM/PM business
plan and therefore was the best
estimate
of AM/PM’s value
|
n
|
The
quality of
the valuation based on multiples
depends on the quality of the
sample15
and not on
its size. The quality of the
valuation analysis based on multiples
depends
on the similarities of the companies
in the sample and the company
being
assessed. We have analyzed the
companies that could potentially
be
included in the sample and we
have selected those that in our
opinion
would be a good benchmark for
the valuation of
AM/PM
|
n
|
AM/PM’s
valuation was based on CBD multiples
because CBD is the Brazilian
company
that best reflects AM/PM’s business plan. CBD has been
selected16
as the best
benchmark of value given its
business profile, the characteristics
of the
products being sold, its growth
profile and
margins
|
n
|
Historical
growth rates reflect Ipiranga’s strategy to launch AM/PM stores
primarily
on Ipiranga’s own gas stations and in the
best locations available in the
network. In the future, we expect
growth rates to be lower given
that
AM/PM’s growth strategy and market
positioning are limited to the
gas
station network, the desire and
viability of opening AM/PM stores,
and the
Ipiranga Group and the clients
agreeing on opening
stores
|
95
|