Kioxia has rapidly risen to one of the most talked-about stocks in the global memory industry following its aggressive outlook, which has seen widespread gains in the entire NAND complex. Investors are suddenly reassessing the entire industry following tighter supply, ASPs, and accelerating AI-driven storage demand.
Kioxia’s U.S.-listed ADR (KXIAY) (KXHCF) also serves as a reminder that stocks in the memory industry are prone to violent fluctuations. Following its enormous rally, the stock’s chart has not exactly been stable. Investors should consider the fundamental bullish argument while also considering the risks that come with any cyclical semiconductor stock.
About Kioxia Stock
Kioxia Holdings is one of the biggest and most prominent global suppliers of NAND flash memory and storage solutions. The company supplies its products to data centers, personal computers, smartphones, and enterprise solutions. The company’s stock trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under ticker 285A. The stock’s U.S.-listed ADR trades on the OTC under ticker KXIAY.
It’s important to note that the stock’s recent decline from the $153 area to the mid-teens isn’t necessarily a fall in the stock’s intrinsic value. The stock has recently had a 10-for-1 forward split. As such, the stock’s price has technically declined by around 90%. On Barchart, the stock’s 52-week range is between $4.12 and $170 (a difference of 4036%). The stock’s Relative Strength Index has recently been around 29.68.
From the valuation point of view, Kioxia is currently expensive based on trailing earnings but reasonable based on forward earnings. The stock is reflecting the market’s view that earnings are about to improve as NAND prices increase throughout 2026.
Kioxia does not pay a dividend on its common shares.
Kioxia Delivers Strong Q3 and Bullish Outlook
Kioxia announced its consolidated financial results for the nine months ended Dec. 31, 2025. Consolidated revenue for the nine months was ¥1,334,776 million, representing a 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) decline. Non-GAAP operating profit decreased 33.3% YoY to ¥277,031 million, with profit attributable to owners of the company also decreasing more than 40%. Basic earnings per share were ¥271.67, down from ¥485.94 in the prior year.
While these numbers may look concerning, the forward outlook improved sentiment significantly. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, Kioxia expects consolidated revenue of between ¥2,179,776 million and ¥2,269,776 million, representing YoY growth of 27.7% to 33.0%. Non-GAAP operating profit is expected to increase 58.3% to 78.1%.
The demand story is being driven by supply, with industry commentary again focusing on clean room capacity and new capacity additions. When supply does not increase, even incremental demand, particularly driven by artificial intelligence, can drive NAND prices significantly higher.
In the third quarter, Kioxia’s SSD & storage segment revenue increased 7.8% YoY to ¥300.4 billion, with smart devices increasing 59.1% YoY to ¥186.3 billion.
The bullish guidance also spilled over into the rest of the memory complex. The sector’s peers across the globe also rallied. When one of the main suppliers sees tight supply and higher prices, it’s only natural to expect the rest of the sector to re-rate.
What Do Analysts Expect for Kioxia Stock?
As KXIAY trades OTC in the U.S., there is less analyst coverage than some of the prominent U.S.-listed semiconductor stocks. As such, the stock and industry trends are important to review when considering the stock. The debate isn’t whether the NAND market will continue to tighten; it’s likely to. The debate is how and when. With a 2,400% move in the stock so far this year (before the split), some of the good news may already be priced in. Memory stocks are known to reward those who buy when the market is bearish and not when it’s bullish. If the ASPs are required to be adjusted sharply upward in 2026, then the stock may have more upside.
On the date of publication, Yiannis Zourmpanos did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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