Mass-channel retailers reach 79% penetration, catching Traditional supermarkets for the first time, while financial insecurity among Americans ages 18–54 climbs to 70%

U.S. consumers have driven Walmart’s grocery penetration to a record 72% as financial insecurity among Americans ages 18–54 climbs to 70%, according to Wave 12 of the dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) released today. Walmart serves over 190 million Americans monthly—2.5 times the reach of second-place Dollar General at 28.6%. Walmart’s penetration rose 6 percentage points (pp) year over year, marking the largest growth in penetration among all retailers.

The quarterly study found that mass-channel retailers have equaled traditional supermarkets at 79% penetration for the first time, marking a fundamental shift in American shopping behavior driven by persistent affordability pressures. Since CTT’s debut in April 2022, mass-channel penetration has increased five percentage points, representing a shift of millions of consumers changing shopping patterns. Dollar stores have surged to 42% penetration, overtaking club stores for the first time since August 2023, with Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar each gaining 4–6 percentage points year over year.

“We are seeing that U.S. households are realigning where they shop based on affordability,” said Matt O’Grady, President of the Americas for dunnhumby. “What makes this different from the 2023 inflation spike is that consumer concern persists even as actual inflation moderates. The consumer is just not feeling it. Where they shop, how they use coupons, even how they adopt AI—everything aligns to saving money. When financial insecurity becomes this entrenched, grocery affordability becomes paramount, and shopping behavior doesn’t just snap back.”

The surge in penetration for mass retailers and dollar stores reflects deepening financial pressure across American households. Seventy percent of working-age Americans (ages 18–54) have difficulty covering an unexpected $400 expense, with the strain most acute among lower-income households (71% for those earning under $50,000) and families with children (67%). Even middle- and upper-income Americans struggle: 48% of those earning $50,000–$100,000 and 36% earning over $100,000 report financial insecurity. Only seniors show relative stability, with 30% of Americans over 65 facing difficulty covering emergency expenses.

Key findings from the study:

• Food insecurity affects nearly 40% of Americans ages 45–54 (the highest rate among any age group) and one in three families with children, with the South Central (34%) and West (32%) regions experiencing significantly higher rates than the Northeast (22%). Working-age adults face food insecurity at more than four times the rate of seniors over 65. Food insecurity for this report is defined as consumers who have reduced their meal size or skipped meals due to financial hardship.
• U.S. consumers perceive food inflation to be 19.6%, more than eight times the actual rate of 2.4% in December 2025. Households with incomes under $50,000 perceive inflation at 23.6%, nearly 10 times the actual rate.
• Despite financial pressures, consumers pulled back on aggressive price-seeking behaviors during the holiday season, with shopping at low-price stores declining 2.1 pp and premium purchases dropping 1.5 pp. However, bulk buying increased by 1.3 pp suggesting consumers selectively spent during December while maintaining long-term savings strategies through stockpiling.
• Nearly half of shoppers (47%) now redeem coupons through store loyalty programs, up 2.5 pp from Wave 11, representing the strongest behavioral shift tracked this wave. Fifty-two percent actively identify themselves to claim rewards. Sixty-eight percent of shoppers seek discounts on items they buy regularly, while 62% expect stores to offer abundant promotions.
• Just 15% of U.S. consumers use AI tools for grocery shopping, with trust emerging as the primary barrier. According to CTT, 38% of respondents do not see the need for it, and 37% prefer making their own shopping decisions. U.S. consumers show significantly more distrust in AI recommendations (19%) than the broader Americas average (12%). Among early adopters, the U.S. stands alone in prioritizing the use of AI for shopping lists (13%) over price comparison (12%).

Methodology

The CTT tracks where people shop and how much they spend, stated behaviors, stated importance of grocery needs, food security, inflation perceptions, and complements dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index which is released every January. Each CTT wave includes timely ad hoc modules on current topics. Wave 12 addressed using AI for shopping. dunnhumby interviewed 8,500 grocery shoppers across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, and the U.S. for Wave 12 of the CTT. The online interviews took place in December 2025 and the previous wave took place in August 2025. The latest CTT study can be accessed here.

About dunnhumby

The science of serving every customer. Together. At scale.

dunnhumby helps businesses grow through faster, better decision making, as the essential intelligence layer connecting the world’s leading retailers and brands.

Sitting at the intersection of loyalty, media, and category management, dunnhumby, helps to navigate complex and competing priorities. Combining AI-enabled science, software, trusted advice, and 35+ years of dedicated retail experience, dunnhumby is recognized as a leader in connecting customer insight and action to build loyalty, drive performance, and deliver results that last.

With offices in locations across Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas, dunnhumby works brands including Tesco, Walmart Data Ventures, Coca-Cola, Meijer, Procter & Gamble, and L’Oreal, to make smarter decisions today and tomorrow.

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U.S. consumers perceive food inflation to be 19.6%, more than eight times the actual rate of 2.4% in December 2025. Households with incomes under $50,000 perceive inflation at 23.6%, nearly 10 times the actual rate.