What Happened?
Shares of defense, intelligence, and IT solutions provider CACI International (NYSE: CACI) jumped 9.8% in the afternoon session after the company reported a "beat and raise" first quarter 2025 results which beat analysts' expectations on revenue, backlog, EPS, and EBITDA. Backlog climbed nearly 10% to a record $31.4 billion, and the company reported a healthy 1.2x book-to-bill ratio, reflecting ongoing demand for its secure communications, intelligence, and electronic warfare solutions. It also raised its full-year revenue and EPS guidance. Zooming out, we think this was a good quarter with some key areas of upside.
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What The Market Is Telling Us
CACI’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 8 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 3 months ago when the stock dropped 9.1% on the news that the company reported fourth-quarter earnings results, with markets increasingly worried that new cost-cutting initiatives by the US government would affect Defense contracts.
Although CACI reported a strong quarter with revenue, EBITDA, EPS ahead of Wall Street's expectations as well as a statement that they're well on their way to meet the three-year financial targets unveiled during the November 2024 Investor Day, the market became fearful of the impact of DOGE during the earnings call Q&A session.
DOGE or the Dept of Government Efficiency was recently established by President Donald Trump as a result of his frustration with government bloat and inefficiency. A primary objective is to streamline federal operations and significantly reduce government spending, with a target of cutting up to $2 trillion over the next decade.
For example, DOGE plans to reassess and renegotiate existing Department of Defense contracts to achieve cost savings, and this could lead to reduced contract values or more stringent terms for defense contractors such as CACI and others.
Additionally, there would likely be efforts to reduce the size of the federal workforce, which might result in fewer government personnel overseeing and managing defense contracts. This could slow down procurement processes and delay project approvals, impacting contractors' operations. Defense contractor stocks have seen multiple compression since President Trump first introduced DOGE, and CACI earnings call had multiple questions related to the topic that seemed to make the market more fearful that DOGE will indeed be a headwind to CACI and peers.
CACI is up 11.6% since the beginning of the year, but at $458.72 per share, it is still trading 19.9% below its 52-week high of $572.44 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of CACI’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,885.
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