Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is an established player in the beverage industry with a $48.06 billion market capitalization and annual revenues of more than $11 billion. The stock gained 19.4% over the past year, and 7.2% year-to-date.
However, because investors are focusing on growth-oriented stocks with equity benchmarks reaching all-time highs, shares of KDP have declined 5.4% over the past month, and 1.1% over the past five days.
KDP is currently focused on strengthening its financials to meet its three-year merger targets established in 2018 at a time when most companies are taking steps to expand their market reach and operations amid the favorable macroeconomic backdrop. This has caused KDP’s shares to slump over the past couple of days.
Here’s what we think could shape KDP’s performance in the near term:
Strategic Refinancing and Debt Obligations
On March 1, KDP announced strategic refinancing actions and established a 364-day revolving credit facility. It plans to retire certain outstanding secured and unsecured notes with draws on the revolving credit and retire its term loan facility that matures in February 2023. These moves should help KDP increase its liquidity and strengthen its balance sheet.
The company also raised $2.13 billion through an offering of unsecured senior notes in March. The proceeds of the offering was also to repay outstanding debt. Given near-zero benchmark interest rates, the refinancing should help KDP to reduce its interest burden significantly.
KDP’s total debt stands at $14.72 billion, representing 61.16% of its total equity. It has a 5.26 covered ratio, indicating relatively low credit risk. Its trailing-12-month net operating cash flow and levered free cash flow came in at $2.59 billion and $2.18 billion, respectively. The company’s stable cash flows and timely repayment of debt motivated Moody’s to upgrade its rating to stable from negative on February 26.
Modest Growth Potential
Analysts expect KDP’s revenues to increase 6.6% in the current quarter (ending June 2021), 6% in its fiscal year 2021, and 3.2% next year. The company’s EPS is expected to rise 12.1% in the current quarter, 14.3% in the current year and 9.4% in 2022. Also, the Street expects KDP’s EPS to increase at a 9.1% CAGR over the next five years. KDP surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
Mixed Valuation
In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, KDP is currently trading at 21.53x, which is 7.5% higher than the 20.02x industry average. Its forward Price/Sales and Price/Cash Flow ratios of 3.97 and 16.43, respectively, compare with the 1.61 and 13.46 industry averages.
However, KDP’s 2.28 forward non-GAAP PEG multiple is 22.1% lower than the 2.93 industry average. Its 1.95 forward Price/Book ratio is 40.2% lower than the 3.26 industry average.
Consensus Rating and Price Target Reflect Potential Upside
Of the seven Wall Street analysts that rated KDP, four rated it Buy while three rated it Hold. The $37.80 12-month median price target indicates a 10.2% potential upside from its $34.29 last closing price. Analysts’ price targets range from a low of $33.00 to a high of $40.00.
POWR Ratings Reflect Uncertainty
KDP has an overall C POWR Rating, which translates to Neutral in our proprietary POWR Ratings system. The POWR Ratings are calculated considering 118 different factors, with each factor weighted to an optimal degree.
KDP has a B grade for Stability and C for Value, and Quality. The stock’s Stability grade is consistent with its relatively low 0.63 beta. However, its relatively higher valuation compared to its peers is in sync with the Value grade.
KDP’s 56.18% gross profit margin is 57.7% higher than the 35.63% industry average. However, the company’s trailing-12-month ROE is negative, justifying the Quality grade.
Of the 36 stocks in the C-rated Beverages industry, KDP is ranked #16.
In addition to the grades we’ve highlighted, click here to view KDP Ratings for Sentiment, Growth, and Momentum.
Click here to view the top-rated stocks in the Beverages industry.
Bottom Line
KDP’s immense market reach and goodwill should allow it to retain its position as a leading player in the beverage industry. However, with growth-oriented stocks currently dominating the markets, investors should hold off on investing in KDP owing to its relatively modest growth potential.
KDP shares were unchanged in premarket trading Tuesday. Year-to-date, KDP has gained 8.13%, versus a 12.91% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Aditi Ganguly
Aditi is an experienced content developer and financial writer who is passionate about helping investors understand the do’s and don'ts of investing. She has a keen interest in the stock market and has a fundamental approach when analyzing equities.
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