Squeeze No More – Meme names come crashing down to earth.
Treasury (yields) moving higher again – lots of Central bank chatter
Jackson Hole confab this week – what will Powell say?
Retail earnings… Hit and miss….
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Warm Up
– The Squeeze gets squashed
– Really HOT in China!
– E Coli outbreak – watch out
– Jackson Hole Annual gathering of eco big-wigs
– Gearing up for War?
– A sad day for the Auto industry
Market Update
– Rolling Over – Fed ratchets up “communication strategy”
– Everyone watching the Jackson Hole confab – Friday Powell Speaks (morning)
– Treasury (yields) moving higher again – lots of Central bank chatter
– – 10Yr Yield > 3% again
– Retail Earnings
Reminder – This week on TDI Podcast – Peter Schiff (Gold, Tuna and Central Banks)
BREAKING NEWS
– White House officials expect slower economic growth in 2022 with higher inflation, according to NY Times
Now this is interesting – EURO @NG…
Facts – Just the Facts
– At the end of 2021, Natural Gas Prices on Europe was priced at 70 Euros. U.S. Natural gas (NG) was priced at $2.53.
—- Note that these have different measurements, but let’s just look at price escalation.
– Currently, the price of Natural gas in Europe is 276 Euros. Here in the U.S. it is $9.64.
– So, European natural gas has moved up 294% since the end of 2021. U.S. Natural gas has seen a 281% rise.
– If you were only getting info from the TV talking heads, you would believe that NG prices have moved much more than here in the U.S.
– The blame has been squarely directed to Russia on this. But, the U.S. is a major NG producer. Big problem with the messaging….
So, What Does German Do About it?
– German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country’s three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use.
– These savings were not sufficient to be worth reopening the debate about the exit from nuclear energy given the consensus on the topic, he said during a discussion with citizens at the government’s open-door day.
Oil Not Going Down
– Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia warned that OPEC could cut output to correct a recent drop in oil futures.
– The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stands ready to reduce production to correct the recent oil price fall driven by poor futures market liquidity and macro-economic fears, which has ignored extremely tight physical crude supply
Meanwhile
– U.S. crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 8.1 million barrels in the latest week to the lowest level in more than 35 years, according to data from the Department of Energy.
One More Energy
– German utility Uniper SE on Monday said it will start producing electricity for the market at its Heyden 4 hard-coal-fired power plant as a three-day halt in Russia’s gas supplies to Europe may cause disruptions to power supply.
– In December 2020, Uniper announced that Heyden 4 would stop commercial production as Germany’s energy regulator included it on the list of plants that may be shut in return for compensation to fight carbon pollution.
– So much for global warming!
Remember The SQUEEEEEZE
– Was fun while it lasted
– BBBY high of $30, now below $10
—- Ryan Cohen pumped and dumped…. Sol ALL SHARES a couple days after the big move (That was due to his massive option purchase)
– AMC $27 last week to $11 now
– Big reversals for ARRK type names after nice run-up
– – 200 Day MA for S&P500 was line in the sand
M&A
– Signify Health surged 37.5% in premarket trading as a potential bidding war escalates for the home health services provider.
– Amazon.com (AMZN) and UnitedHealth (UNH) are now said to be among the bidders, according to The Wall Street Journal
– Healthcare company with heavy analystics and in-home services. Interesting add.
Japan and Rev Moon
– More problems with Unification Church
– Now new Prime Minister Kishida linked to church – support falls to 36% from 52%
– Unification Church – founded in South Korea in the 1950s and famous for its mass weddings
– Moonies !
China – Not Good at All
– Heatwaves…
– The Chinese city of Chongqing is shortening the opening hours of its malls from Monday due to an “urgent” power supply situation caused by a recent heatwave
– China’s Sichuan province will extend curbs on industrial power consumers until Aug. 25 as it tries to deal with dwindling hydropower output and surging household electricity demand following a long heatwave
– Red ALERT for Heat as temps hover past 104
– Average August temps in region – 87 – 92
Jackson Hole Eco Gathering
– The gathering is one of the central banking profession’s A-list events, with global officials kibbitzing over cocktails, listening to presentations on new research, hiking the Grand Teton mountains and fly fishing for fine-spotted cutthroat trout on the Snake River.
– The gathering also offers an attention-getting perch for a Fed chief or other policymaker to fine-tune their messaging.
—- They will be discussing “Inflation’s Broad Roots”
—– Remember Bernanke’s “Green Shoots”?
Kissinger Says
– We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to.
– I think that the current period has a great trouble defining a direction. It’s very responsive to the emotion of the moment.
– Some of this may be in response to the fact that China sent troops to Russia for “joint training”
—– Note: these joint exercises take place every four years, and include India, Belarus, Mongolia, Tajikistan and other countries
E.Coli
– The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is probing an E.coli bacteria outbreak in four states from an unknown food source, with many of the affected reported to have had sandwiches at Wendy’s Co
– Of the 37 sick, 22 people were said to have consumed Wendy’s sandwiches with romaine lettuce in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania
– Wendy’s pulled ROMAINE lettuce – but still unclear about what is cause
A First for Girl Scouts
– Raspberry Rally – Similar to a think mint, but Raspberry
– ONLY SOLD ONLINE …
— ? A local Girl Scout places the order for you online.
—– The group says the goal is to help girl scouts build e-commerce skills.
Retail – Mixed Bag
– Target posted earnings last week on Wednesday
– Reported a bigger than expected 90% fall in quarterly earnings and missed comparable sales estimates on Wednesday as aggressive discounting fell short of reversing a slump in spending on discretionary goods.
– The company’s operating margin rate tumbled to 1.2% in the second quarter, below the 2% forecast last month and 9.8% a year earlier, due to costs related with clearing out excess merchandise.
Retail Earnings
– Macy’s Inc cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts on Tuesday, with the company saying it will need to offer more discounts to get rid off excess inventories of casual and athleisure apparel, even as demand for luxury products holds up.
– Macy’s inventories were up 7% at the end of the second quarter, compared with a year earlier
– The company said it expects fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings of $4.00 to $4.20 per share, compared with its previous outlook of $4.53 to $4.95 per share.
– Comparable sales at Macy’s upscale Bloomingdale’s department stores rose 5.8% in the second quarter, while they rose 7.6% at its luxury beauty outlet Blue Mercury.
Bed Bath and Yuck
– Stock slammed – Was at $30 high –
– Ryan Cohen (Started the Gamma Sqeeze) sold ALL shares
– Stock off by ??? – Down Sub $9
AMC
– Issues new shares, dividend, screwing around with preferreds
– Stock was $28 last week – Now sub $10
Zoom Earnings
– Guiding Down
– Not much good to say (Stock off by 16%)
– It was fun while it lasted
– Stock $81 (ATH was $581)
Auto Sadness
– Dodge will discontinue its gas-powered Challenger and Charger muscle cars at the end of next year, marking the end of an era for the brand as it starts to transition to electric vehicles.
– For several years, Dodge has warned that the end was coming for the gas-powered muscle cars due to emissions regulations. Dodge parent company Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler, ranks the worst among major manufacturers for U.S. corporate average fuel economy and carbon emissions.
420 Stocks …
Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV
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UPDATE – NEW ETF – Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!
The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.
We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how “old school” stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include: (updated names as of 8/29/16)
We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) – DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle
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